Possible Autumn Break 21-25 March?

[weathergasm]

It was never forecast to be a deluge for Melbourne, at least not by the BOM. Some of the models temporarily hinted at the possibility of moderate totals though.

[Didjman]

An even 10mm here as the first round finishes. Happy with that. Don't want a deluge, but some sparks & rumbles would be welcome

[snowfall]

13.6mm here now. The rain came down quite heavily at times. It's still going although the radar suggests it will mostly clear up soon. It's still a reasonable drop, although nothing by current NSW standards!

A very muggy 17c here at the moment.

[StratoBendigo]

37mm in gauge here. Airport AWS did better with 45mm. Great falls regardless.

Anyway, looks like some convection across the Murray River. Perhaps it might finish with bang!

[Mike]

13mm exactly for the day. Some scuddy cloud moving fast atm.

[Gordon]

17mm here from part one. A few more mm over the next few days and I'll call it the autumn break for our area.

[Sean]

3mm here. Not exactly a bumper fall by east coast standards this week.

Pretty disappointed to be honest. I had little confidence in the models where Vic was concerned this week (and rightly so), but was hoping for something substantial by now (good to see central areas copping a drink though).

Monday doesn't look much better, most of the rain confined to NSW (practically abiding the borders).

Meanwhile, the models are showing another two days of heavy rain for much of the NSW coast and hinterland. Wasn't that long ago they were on fire. From one extreme to another...

[hillybilly]

Woken by a heavy shower this morning with another 1 mm

About 11mm so far which is a lot more than I expected at this point

An inbetween day today, ahead of rain pushing south tomorrow. Progs have shifted quite dramatically over with the low digging south into Gippsland then spinning back west to be near Wilsons Prom. Might even make it as far west as Inverloch am Wednesday. Widespread rain, showers and storms, particular central and east. Would also push a substantial storm surge onto the coast with the low near 985hPa.

If that scenario holds would expect at least 50mm here and perhaps even 100mm by Thursday Be a great autumn starter or seconder for us.

[StratoBendigo]

We had a few mm overnight so 40mm in the gauge. A decent early Autumn break for us.

Our March temps are running about 1degC below average and will end up even less than that looking at the next 8 days all around 20c.

As for NSW - looks dire around Kempsey. But inland dams still have plenty of room for water.

[Tassiedave]

Further out I notice the latest ACCESS-G has a LOW spinning up and hanging around Vic/Tas next Sunday to Tuesday the following week.

[Derwent]

Can only hope Dave, getting a bit bored with this summer run in Hobart.

[Mike]

Only 0.2mm overnight here but have had steady mizzle over the last 40 mins or so.

So total so far is 13.2mm. Its weird, mild , breezy from NE atm with mizzle. If I wasn't looking at models I would be expecting considerable rain in the next 12 to 24 hours but models suggest otherwise.

Of course they have progged large amounts before and not produced so maybe they are wrong in a good way today! LOL, delusions....

[Dane]

21.8mm's in the 24 hours to 9am here. None since. System total 27mm's YTD 155mm's.

[wobbie]

Looking decent for E Gippy now

[Luken]

Nice and damp in Mitcham, woke to a wet deck, got warm and humid, then wet and humid this afternoon. At least if I have to put up with humid I get some precip.. Cant imagine being in Sydney basin, looks horrific for low lying areas.

[hillybilly]

Muggy then rainy day up here. Funny as the mid autumn light and low cloud makes it look cold, and you step out to weather more fitting of northern NSW. DP has been mid to high teens. Another 2.4mm here today, so sneaking up on 15mm. Fantastic start to autumn for much of Vic

This area of showers clears tonight, then rain spreads south tomorrow. Looks heavy for eastern areas, extending into parts of central. Low looks like forming near Sale, then digs west to near the Prom.

Crazy totals in NSW. Days of heavy rain, and now record falls over the inland. Tibooburra has scored a remarkable 150mm past 36 hours, which is about 2/3rds of the annual average.

[Petros]

A sixth day of strong afternoon easterlies here, only a trace of drizzle a couple of times over the past 6 days.

Latest GFS/EC /CMC runs show problematic rain tally's to come down here in east Gippsland from tomorrow morning till early pm Wednesday - could see 50-75mm by the consensus just now.

Time will tell.

The blocking high SE of Tassie remains at 1035 hPa, quite amazing since its been stationary there for near a week! La Nina.

[Derwent]

Hobart 25.7 c today

[snowfall]

5mm here today to add to the 14mm from yesterday. Steady drizzle this evening with occasional heavier bursts. Looks like it could continue for much of the night, with totals slowly adding up across Melbourne and parts of the central district.

Still got to a muggy 20c today despite the cloud and afternoon rain. The past few days have sure felt a lot like living on the east coast!

[QldTwister]

Hours and hours of rain for the second day in a row, rain band once again peaking through central areas, light but non stop

15mm here on top of 6mm yesterday, sure we hit 20 plus by morning, shame not reaching dry parts of W and NW Vic but Central, NC NE and Wimmer SW have done well

Amazing Amazing stuff in Nsw what an amazing week up there destructive ad disastrous flooding

Wet tomorrow and gippy could get whacked by this low big rain for them possible interesting 36 hours ahead

Will miss this long stretch of easterly summer supposed to be like this with La Nina westerly later this week gonna feel odd lol

Enjoy the rain