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Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

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Didjman
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Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Didjman »

Models have been consistently showing a low moving south over Vic/Tas for a few days now. BoM even has "possible storm" on its forecasts for Melbourne from Thursday to Saturday :D
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by weathergasm »

Yeah, this looks like a proper storm outbreak for many parts of Victoria, with moist easterly airstreams establishing towards the end of the week. I’ve noticed my area (Box Hill) tends to do well in these kinds of events, so I’ll be paying close attention to the models from Wednesday.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Chritc »

Looks great for those around elevated areas of Victoria although those that live close to metropolitan Melbourne are looking fairly marginal at the moment. The main things to monitor are wind directions through the troposphere as moisture is not going to be while the trough provides general instability. The 850 hPa winds are al over the place at the moment and these definitely need to have a northerly component to them to ensure steering is towards the coast rather than away from it in these setups. We can offset the seabreeze etc with this but if steering ends up being more south to north then coastal regions will likely miss out. I'll provide analysis throughout the outbreak.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by WeatherViewer »

On another note, am I the only one who has felt bloody freezing for the most part of December?
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Chritc »

Definitely has been much cooler than average here in the inner South East suburbs.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

More jumpers tackies, then shorts and dresses that’s for sure.
Just enough sun to warm the house a little.
No complaints compared to previous years of high heat..
Had fire lit 22nd 23rd.. had to dry washing.
Happy to hear the chance of a storm.. no wind required..
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by stevco123 »

Widespread minimums of 6s and 7s last night across the metro area. 9 degrees in the city. Not the coldest for late December (even for recent years), but still quite chilly.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

Progs showing a substantial and long lived event. Showers, rain and storms every day from December 31 to about January 7. Best of it looks to occur from January 1-4.

A trough over eastern Victoria slowly edges west Wednesday and Thursday and is sat west of Melbourne by Friday. Areas on the eastern side of the trough sit in a warm muggy airmass with precipitable water values in the 30-40mm range with LI in the negatives. Progs vary in detail, but generally show 25-100mm. East central and the northeast currently tending to show the best of it atm. The trough slowly edges into the westerlies around Tuesday or Wednesday, but cold air aloft and return of a deep eastery flow suggest the pattern could repeat again in a week or so.

Tending to think 50-100mm in the Dandenongs at this point. Near the coast could also see sea fog. If you’ve got vulnerable plants might be the time to spray with sulphur or similar :?

Further north will be heavy falls making for a miserable week. Could be locally very heavy falls, particularly central Queensland coast and northeast NSW :o
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by chasersaddict76 »

Felt cooler summer and some colder night below 10c , thats ok save power bills only used 4 days of air conditioning this December.

Hope SE Victoria have nice rain and storms all way through New Year and the trough sits far West Victoria thats helps not dry out in West part.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

National Radar is looking good.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Didjman »

I have compiled a chasing checklist - including sound recorder and the drone! No work atm, so guess who's chasin :D
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Tassiedave »

Progs varying a bit from run to run. I guess this sort of set up is hard to nail down?
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by stevco123 »

Hard to be excited to be honest. 25 degrees, cloudy and humid isn't exactly ideal, especially for Melbourne.

Longing for the days of past times, when it was 35 degrees by early afternoon, followed by storm outbreaks at 4pm, and then a clear night.

Hasn't happened in a while
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Chritc »

Agree Stevco it's going to be a case of watching how each day unfolds. Where initiation occurs will be critical for Melbourne as well as if any organisation of storms around the Seabreeze takes place if we get any clear slots. Looking very marginal although could also be quite big if everything falls into place on any given day.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Didjman »

Chritc wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:29 am Agree Stevco it's going to be a case of watching how each day unfolds.
I will be checking things like SigWx and Gridpoint Temp/Wind charts, GAFs etc to deduce possible target areas. From where I am, can be in say Wang in around 2 hrs.

Here is another handy link:
https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Sean »

I think it's going to be a very frustrating couple of days for many...

EC is favouring inland regions. Also, they look to be very slow moving if not stationary (good for chasers, but not for those of us waiting for them to pass over). Seabreeze will probably kick into gear given that the highs are quite far south, though it might not be so bad if it's gets warm enough.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by hillybilly »

Fog and drizzle to start the day in the Dandenongs, wth 0.2mm so far. Better falls on the southside of the central ranges where a number of gauges are showing a few mms.

Showers will clear in the south, but storms develop inland today. They look like staying mainly north of the divide. Tomorrow they extend south of the divide and then become general on Saturday and Sunday. EC actually has the heaviest spot falls in southern Vic (southeast of Melbourne) so sea breezes may not affect the end result a lot, but there is a range on the progs. For the Dandenongs the model average is about 50mm, but ranges from about 10mm in the CMC to more than 100mm in the UK. Am expecting something in about the middle.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Gordon »

Cold with light drizzle here this morning. We'll finish December with just one 30C day (15th) - my kind of summer :).

Meanwhile, WATL looking very generous this morning, giving virtually the entire state decent rain totals over the next week, with the best of it (not surprisingly) over the north-east ranges.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Didjman »

Latest Sev WX briefing from EMV:

Significant weather commentary
• Thursday: Shower and thunderstorm activity focused over NE Victoria this afternoon - heavy rain a risk.
- Thunderstorm activity contracting to northern border tonight although isolated storms could develop over the
south/west just after midnight.
• Friday: Thunderstorms likely across all of the State apart from the Gippsland coast.
- Heavy rain the main risk - storms likely to be slow moving - totals of 20-30mm possible. Large hail/damaging
wind also possible. Activity easing at night.
• Saturday: Thunderstorms likely across all districts again, but particular focus over the west and Dividing Range.
- Heavy rain again greatest concern with storms likely to be slow moving - 30-40mm possible, large
hail/damaging winds also a risk.
• Sunday: Thunderstorms again possible across all districts but faster moving - high moisture levels so small risk of
heavy rain and large hail. Damaging winds a risk.
• Monday: Storm risk becomes confined to far northeast - heaviest rain associated with thunderstorms likely through
the North East district.
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Re: Finally a storm outbreak first week of the New Year??

Post by Chritc »

I've just taken a real close look at a range of models for my area (inner SE suburbs) and I'm now very interested in tomorrow as a potential severe weather day. The key components are in place across a wide area but the local details are what will count in the end due to weak steering and initiation locations. GFS and EC are hinting at an early afternoon weak sea breeze to establish with a convergence zone establishing around Emerald/Croydon. Mid level steering then brings cells westward into the Seabreeze which washes out. Due to the weak steering I expect that if this is the initiation location that storm outflow boundaries will setup several areas of development around the bay over a period of several hours. Upper level winds are out of the west so storms will shear off to the east and favour areas on the western side of initial development. Could be a BIG day in local spots around the south eastern burbs if we start off the day with clear skies.
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