Progs generally look good. 5-15mm west, 15-50mm east. Rain totals increase from about Geelong east. EC which has been most stable has up to 60mm in the eastern ranges, and 15-40mm across the Melbourne metro. The Mallee will miss out - just a stinker for them with 40s in the hottest parts.
It builds during the arvo in western areas with widespread thunderies and rain developing late. EC has a lot of lightning overnight, so should be one of those systems which builds overnight, rather than fades when the sun going down. The action looks quite late so may not be that impressive til after about 5pm.
Late this week looks shocking. Could well get a new Victorian max temp record if EC comes of, and 40s around Melbourne. Can’t see us escaping a shocker on Friday or Saturday. The Melbourne record is 40.9 and Victorian record 45.8 (used to be just 44.5). EC has us hitting about those numbers on Saturday arvo
Guess a toss of the coin whether we break records or not at this stage
Inland will be hot for Friday to Sunday, south saved by sea breezes and a weak change on Friday and likely Sunday.