Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Didjman
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:31 pm

17.4mm here in about 30mins with max rain rate 120mm/hr :o Only distant booming CG rumbles and a few rolling sky crackles from CCs
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hillybilly
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Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:44 pm

Lots of rumbles here and the odd crack- boom. Radar doesn’t look impressive enough for all the rumbles we’ve had - at a guess about 30 now. Steady moderate to heavy rain. Adding up nicely. Just passed 14mm. Might get 20mm before this first bit clears. MTD is closing in on 50mm, so only need 70mm more to get to average (shows what a crappy month it’s been so far despite the La Niña).

Nice band of 25-50mm on the southern side of the divide. Those just north will be feeling cheated as it drops to a mm or two quickly.

There’s rapid development happening in the southern Wimmera with cloud tops exploding. The upper trough is still west of Mt Gambier. As it gets closer would expect the clouds to start to move more NW to SE. Would expect more to come, so hopefully EC is onto something.
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Onetahuti
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Location: Dandenong Nth.

Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:08 pm

9.5mm with that lot. Not being greedy ;) but another 15mm please so as to fill the tanks.
tonycynic
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Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:17 pm

Nice bit of rain here filling the tanks ok. Gave the veggie garden a good water yesterday so all this is a bonus. Still got spiders in the AWS so reading 0mm again.
snowfall
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Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:41 pm

32mm all up, so a good start. Still a long way to go to reach the monthly average, which is probably too far out of reach. Looking forward to see how the radar looks later this evening.
WeatherViewer
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Location: Truganina

Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:53 pm

Radar for the rest of the evening looks pretty ho-hum....
nafets
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Location: Ascot vale

Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:10 pm

Both EC and ACCESS are keen for more storms overnight and I think the radar looks quite good with development. Stuff building to the west as you mentioned HB. Have not looked at the uppers recently but recall a small upper trough moving through Vic sometime today, would help with development/lift.
Go the bombersss!
James
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Location: Boronia Central

Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:02 pm

quite a bit happening out west, watching to see if it filters its way across the bay to the eastern suburbs!
Adam38
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Location: Bacchus Marsh

Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:20 pm

It’s belting down again, huge drops!!
nafets
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:35 pm

First rumbles from round 2.
Go the bombersss!
WeatherViewer
Cumulonimbus
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Location: Truganina

Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:44 pm

I retract my ho-hum comment! Thunder and lightning is now here, oh yes!!!
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:03 pm

Slipping north of here! :(
James
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:08 pm

they keep dying, very few thunders or lightning :(
Adam38
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Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:10 pm

Up to 41mm here now and it’s still pouring!! No thunder though.
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hillybilly
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Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:39 am

Just torrential here atm. Tropical dumpers :o just passed 45mm and rising rapidly. The radar has a gap in it due east of the city, so ignore the details James. The storms aren’t dying, they are passing into a gap where the radar can’t resolve detail.

Heaviest fall I’ve spotted so far is 90mm near Narre Warren :o It is still dumping down there so must be a chance for us to see 100mm plus locally. Finally La Niña delivers after lots of false starts :?

Looking at obs about half the metro has scored the months average. City still need about 20mm as do most of the burbs north of the city. Hoping they can get there.

Big pick by EC. GFS dudded this one big time :o
Tassiedave
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Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:47 am

Completely missed this event in Tasmania. Virtually nothing: Rain so far this November: Launceston 6.6mm Hobart 12mm
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Onetahuti
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Location: Dandenong Nth.

Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:56 am

Last night when I posted that I had 9.5 mm and asked for 15 more to fill the tanks, well I got 50 more . Closing in on 60mm now with solid rain falling. The back yard is awash, when it stops I will bail out water from the overflowing fish pond.
Ah isn't trying to pick the weather unpredictable.
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hillybilly
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Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:58 am

Racing up here now. 64mm. Best is just south of us with couple of gauges showing over 70mm.

Still need 23mm to the monthly average. That’s about 20 minutes more rain at the current rate.
Gordon
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Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:04 am

Finished with 31mm, a great result but at the lower end locally :o - quite a few 40 and 50mm falls, wouldn't be surprised if there were even higher spot totals. A real 'something from nothing' La Nina dump!
hillybilly wrote:
Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:39 am
Big pick by EC. GFS dudded this one big time :o
Just pathetic from GFS, even to the point that the 06z and 12z runs were still showing bugger all while it was (is) pouring over a very wide area in real time!
Last edited by Gordon on Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
stevco123
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Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:06 am

25mm down here. Definitely on the lower side compared to areas just north of me, but no complaints by any means
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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