Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 149
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Elwood home, CBD work

Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:27 pm

James wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:52 pm
Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:42 pm
Farmers will not want this
Nor fruit growers.
Open blue skies.
James - think you’ll get your wish tonight.
I hope so, are conditions better this time around? very muggy out there atm with blue sky and hot! - am i right that the best storm potential is overnight into the early hours for melb or could we get something earlier with all this sunshine to kick off the convection?
Models I’ve reviewed have fairly consistently indicated the chance for storms will persist in the metropolitan area well into the evening.
Mike
Cumulus
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Location: Woodend 578m

Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:31 pm

Pretty good shower and one good rumble so far
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Sun Nov 22, 2020 4:11 pm

Sticky afternoon. Had 2.4mm from the rain this morning and a light fall not long ago as a thunderstorm brushed past. A few cracks of thunder but we were just a little too far south for this one. The radar is looking good, but might be a hit and miss for the heavier showers. Reached 26c this afternoon.
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Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1836
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Sun Nov 22, 2020 4:27 pm

Couple of close rumbles here from that high based cell. The 0.2mm has increased the humidity! 27.4/17.6! I didn't know I was in Darwin lol!
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Sun Nov 22, 2020 4:31 pm

Just had a few good booms of thunder here, my recently adopted Greyhound is not happy and is lying down in the ensuite shower lol...
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 402
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:00 pm

Some black in the storm that went to the south of Ararat, Hamilton had 25 there is
some good rain out there. Looks like I'm in the middle for a while.
Mike
Cumulus
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Location: Woodend 578m

Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:05 pm

Nice looking ,still sort of high based storms forming to my south around Gis/Macedon area. On the nice visual side but they wont give us anything.
Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1697
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:13 pm

Crash, bang, first crack of thunder for the season here. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 911
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:33 pm

Waiting and hoping here... the lines of storms seem to be shifting into an area of rain, so I think it's going to be light on thunder.

EC going for thundery rain into the early hours. GFS showing some rain, but not interested in thunder
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:42 pm

Torrential rain and loud thunder ⚡️⚡️⚡️
15mm in 10mins and still bucketing...
Last edited by Adam38 on Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:48 pm

still waiting,,,its very dark here but no thunder and just light sprinkling of rain
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1544
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:51 pm

Pretty heavy storm here in the last hour. Recorded 14mm's in 35 minutes.
Heavier at Ballarat Airport with 20mm's in 22 minutes between 5.18 and 5.40pm
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:25 pm

All going to the north a few rumbles and steady light rain but that's all so far
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:32 pm

Severe storm through here. Howling wind, torrential rain and big booms of thunder that shook the house. 26mm in quick time. Eased off now but still raining quite heavily.
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2314
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:40 pm

Spectacular 'purple sky' storms just passed through here; constant nearby lightning and 20mm of rain in the gauge. Not too much wind thankfully.
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:48 pm

Rain is about to stop and I am very happy with the 23mm in the gauge :D
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 402
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:50 pm

Oh yea and wow, we had a bit of wind for a few minutes!!!! LOL
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hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3894
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:53 pm

Lots of rumbles here, and a couple of big booms. Mostly small embed cells, but a few spells of heavy rain. Just on 11mm so far. Bit patchy so far with local falls approaching 40mm east of Ballarat to Wallan, but mostly 5-10mm so far.

Now hoping the progs are right in having further development overnight with moderate to heavy rain with the change tomorrow am. Gfs is the one outlier with little interest for the change proper.

The winds are still northerly behind this band, so would expect further development.
Mike
Cumulus
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Location: Woodend 578m

Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:20 pm

16.2mm wind and hail that was square and bigger than a pea size, quite firm as well from the dinner time storm. Friend in next street has neighbours stone drive way wash across the road and under their house! 18.3mm for the day so far.
Last edited by Mike on Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1239
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:21 pm

Absolutely lovely evening...humid and steady rain for the last hour or so
8mm for the entree with main course onight
Might wander down to the bay tonight see if there’s any action from thunderstorms
Fingers crossed
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