Low crossing Vic 22 - 23 Nov

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Didjman
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Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:39 pm

BoM currently are keen on this system with rain and storms forecast for both days.
Adam38
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Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:27 pm

I hope so... I’m sitting on just 7mm of rain so far this month.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:28 pm

GFS 00Z swings in from left-field and all of a sudden has 40mm forecast for here on Sunday night - Monday.

Nothing much on all other models, so I'm not buying it.
dazrain
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Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:45 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:28 pm
GFS 00Z swings in from left-field and all of a sudden has 40mm forecast for here on Sunday night - Monday.

Nothing much on all other models, so I'm not buying it.
My concern is the heat island we currently have.

Late next week BOM are going for 30 degrees again in Melbourne.

There appears to be too much heat for mid November to get good rain.

Just my guy feel at this stage.
Dane
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Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:00 pm

31.9c today at my place and 31.3c at Ballarat Airport. 14th day above 30c this year and the
first 30 plus day since March 19 - 8 months ago.
Tassiedave
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Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:45 pm

ACCESS G suggests Saturday week the 28th November could be VERY hot!
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hillybilly
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Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:31 pm

Been watching this one hoping to see the progs settle down :o Seems each run about half the models get better and about half worse. Currently GFS and EC look good. UK, ICON and ACCESS ok, but not great. Will probably switch on the next model update :roll: EC showing lots of storms for later Sunday which would be nice :D

Needing some rain. Just shy of 30C here today and been quite a warm few days.
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hillybilly
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Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:17 am

Looking better in the progs this morning, though probably a miss for the northwest and possible west of Vic (which is often the case during the warm season). EC showing locally near 50mm further east. Could be quite heavy falls for east central through Gippsland/northeast, with most Progs showing 20-50mm.

Nice day for Friday.
Gordon
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Fri Nov 20, 2020 9:41 am

hillybilly wrote:
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:31 pm
Seems each run about half the models get better and about half worse.
So true! EC has just bumped us up to 30mm plus over Sunday/ Monday (was just 5mm two days ago), while GFS's 50mm dump has faded to 5-10mm. A good time for a bit of 'model shopping'. :)
Tassiedave
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Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:47 pm

Warm in Northern Tassie today currently 27.9 in Launceston. We are tracking about 2 degrees above our November average this month.
Tassiedave
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Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:42 pm

Tas temps today: Launceston 28.5, Devonport 28.2, Scottsdale 26.8, Wynyard 25.7, Fingal 25.0, Hobart 20.8
Tassiedave
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Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:49 pm

It's warming up next week - Next Friday forecast Mildura 42, Horsham 41
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hillybilly
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:07 am

Liking the progs this morning. Pretty consistent, finally. 10-20mm west and 20-50mm east. Looks like decent falls (up to about 10mm) will make it about as far north and Horsham to Bendigo. Do need it. Widespread storms on Sunday arvo broadening to areas of rain. Looks to me that it will be quite cloudy so wouldn’t expect storms to be strong or visually that impressive - looks more like embedded stuff. Moisture is excellent, perhaps close to November records with values approaching 50mm at their peak :D

Progs for later next week are awfully hot. EC has 46C for Mildura on Saturday :? Southern areas look like the6 wilbe spared, on current forecasts but could change. There was a time when Vic had not seen a 45C outside of summer :roll: Not out of the question that we will set a new National maximum temperature next week, as well. Going to reach the high 40s in southern WA.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:18 am

hillybilly wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:07 am

Progs for later next week are awfully hot. EC has 46C for Mildura on Saturday :?
:o
Derwent
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:47 am

Hello from Hobart
Been a warm and dry month and will continue to the end. Sitting on average of 22 c that’s about 4 c above normal.
Looking to run down the 2017 record at 22.9 c ? A few 27 and 25 to come unfortunately. Also been extremely dry as well so definitely like Victoria not seeing the wetter part of La Niña kicking in so far.
Tassiedave
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:49 am

Latest models now suggesting heat will persist from Saturday 28/11 through to Monday 30/11. Could be huge
StratoBendigo
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:58 am

Tassiedave wrote:
Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:49 am
Latest models now suggesting heat will persist from Saturday 28/11 through to Monday 30/11. Could be huge
Yeah, ugly.

Access-G looks particularly bad. Ie. Max of 48c next weekend in Mildura. Probably overblowing it a bit. So much for La Nina. It's missing in action.
StratoBendigo
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 10:09 am

Probably looking at big rain afterwards on Dec 2-3 if GFS 18z is correct. All that heat might suck in the monsoon from the North...
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Didjman
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:22 am

Very tropical wx here! 24.9/15.8 currently. Or 25C at 57% RH.
Wilko
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Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:50 pm

Wind has gone from southerly to north-easterly and temperatures has increased 6° from 3.30 to 4:30 pm
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