Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:02 am

a couple of distant rumbles and light rain here
snowfall
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:09 am

Thunderstorm here about 45 minutes ago. A few good bolts of lightning and thunder. Rain was heavy but it’s moving so quickly that it only amounted to 2mm.
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hillybilly
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:59 am

Apparently we got 0.4mm of mud last night :o Only sign of it is the brown cars and the 0.4mm on my AWS.

Another week of not much coming up. Maybe something significant next weekend :?:
StratoBendigo
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:28 am

hillybilly wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:59 am
Apparently we got 0.4mm of mud last night :o Only sign of it is the brown cars and the 0.4mm on my AWS.

Another week of not much coming up. Maybe something significant next weekend :?:
We had crazy winds at 12:30pm last night. It felt very 2019 with all the wind, dust and rainless cold front... At least it dries the crops out quickly so much of the harvest can be done before a likely La-Nina onslaught... maybe.
Hawker
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:48 am

Don't hold your breath Strato. The monsoon has been unreliable in recent years. Very iffy what will happen.
Mike
Cumulus
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:42 am

Pretty good light show around 1130 last night but 0.0mm , some red splats on the side of the gauge. Was 24.7c a few minutes before 2am.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:41 am

Hawker wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:48 am
Don't hold your breath Strato. The monsoon has been unreliable in recent years. Very iffy what will happen.
Mid-December is when I would get worried if the monsoon hasn't arrived in Northern Australia by then:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

MJO is likely to be in the zone in Early-Dec too, so it could hit with vengeance.
weathergasm
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:08 pm

All I know is that in January this year when the monsoon finally arrived on the Australian mainland it was like a switch had been flicked climate-wise down here in Melbourne. We went from months of extremely windy, hot, desert-like conditions to humid, mild and rainy very quickly. Some good storms around too.

I’m holding great hopes for the monsoon this year, which all indicators are showing should be arriving slightly ahead of schedule, with a boost from La Niña. Once all that moisture moves onshore it just becomes much more likely to advect down here and reduce the chances of these boring, rainless, gusty fronts.
Skywalker
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:37 pm

Horrible gusty westerly filth out there today. Going to make the trip home on the bike rather unpleasant. :x

I'd say that most of us in the western wasteland will have to crank up the sprinklers & plant watering this week with no rain whatsoever on the horizon.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Blackie
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:09 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:59 am
Apparently we got 0.4mm of mud last night :o Only sign of it is the brown cars and the 0.4mm on my AWS.

Another week of not much coming up. Maybe something significant next weekend :?:
Yeah it's gone from soft, wet ground to dry here in two weeks thanks to all the south easterlies and warmer temps. Doesn't feel very La Niña like at all presently. Hoping this changes soon.
stevco123
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:59 pm

Didn't want to bring up the topic a couple of months ago as everyone was excited, but the chances of a La Nina remain at 50/50.

I am worried that there should have been better, clear signs by now, but the indicators aren't in our favour at the moment.

December is showing the potential, but I'm still not convinced
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
weathergasm
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Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:11 pm

La Niña is established in the Pacific Ocean, all of the required thresholds were reached over a month ago (sea surface temperatures, equatorial cloudiness, trade wind anomalies etc).

The impact it will have on Australia has yet to be determined, true. But the main driver of rainfall and moisture in the Australian summer is the monsoon trough, and it has yet to arrive. It probably won’t for at least a month. I don’t think anyone was expecting it to get here this early, in any case.

Atmospheric inertia is also something we need to consider - just because La Niña has been established for a few weeks doesn’t mean we’ll see obvious impacts immediately. It takes time for things to get going.

I remain hopeful for a nice, wetter-than-usual summer:)
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Didjman
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Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:46 am

Also the Monsoon Trough is unlikely to move south if SAM is negative - as the highs are too far north :D
Here is a link to daily SAM:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... index.html
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:53 am

Didjman wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:46 am
Also the Monsoon Trough is unlikely to move south if SAM is negative - as the highs are too far north :D
Here is a link to daily SAM:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... index.html
Yes, true. But the ensemble forecast sees it bounce back to +ve by the end of the month:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... _ensm.html

Dry for the rest of November, but December has real potential to see the switch flipped.
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hillybilly
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Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:59 pm

Hard to be excited about this weather. Feels like the January or February doldrums atm with nothing much.

Might finally change on the weekend. Almost new thread time :D
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:57 am

Had to switch over from the Ryobi to the Sthil,
Only exciting thing about this weather is the Sthil started and the time saved to clean up the gum tree mess
At back door is greatly reduced in time to do and times required through out the day now this wind has settled.
Time to clean up the fallen debris once again.
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