Low / Trough 15 - 16 Nov

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Didjman
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:32 am

A Low and trough will cross Vic through the above dates with gusty northerlies ahead of it. Some moisture is showing on latest WV satpic, but not a lot in it. BoM aren't keen on much rain at all, but a few sparks from high based storms (mainly tonite and early tomorrow) might be generated, if at all. BoM SigWx charts show upper steering from the NW. As of time of writing, we have had strengthening northerly winds to 35klm / hr (expected to increase further).
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hillybilly
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:47 am

Unfortunately a big dry slot around 2km with this system :( Gonna turn most the showers into virga. The change has got quite a good tap of tropical moisture but in the wrong spot (above 5km, rather than below 5km).

Hoping for a mm or two.

Some impressive heat inland, with 40s widespread to our north.
Mike
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:57 am

About 15 drops with that line, some a bit bigger than I thought. Line was proceeded by the most spectacular display of Mammatus. Unfortunately the camera was in my WIR, wife on Sunday morning sleep in = no photo, not game......so therefore memory photo and you will have to take my word for it. :D
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:22 am

Well Wife missed out on a Memrable Mammatus event.. let her sleep..
Early 7am had black skies with the sun glowing which highlighted the flowers on the distant gums.
I'd rather be up for either.
Washing went from line to clothes horse quickly
Wind eased with this band. Not looking forward to this afternoon..
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Didjman
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:39 am

I got pics of the mammatus! It WAS pretty special.

Image

Image


Image
SC.
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:42 am

Awesome pics there Didj!
Matt

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Mike
Cumulus
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:14 pm

Great stuff with the pics. nearly 23 here now
James
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 2:50 pm

looks like another good day up north/wimmera etc but things dying / too north of melb to do anything here
Skywalker
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:37 pm

Some gusty windy showers pushing through down here on the island. Shocking day to be down on the north facing beaches.

As expected, nothing back at the other place in the western wasteland. :roll:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
snowfall
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:51 pm

Blowing a gale here. There's some reasonable rain on the radar just to our north, but only scraping us here. We'll be lucky if it even registers in the gauge. Awful day - blustery, hot and currently 27c after reaching a max of 29c earlier this afternoon.
Adam38
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:12 pm

The wind is just awful, 33c max here today and things are really drying out, the hills are almost brown here.
weathergasm
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:22 pm

If there’s going to be a storm, looks like it’ll be when most of us are asleep - sometime from 11pm - 4am for the Melbourne metro area.

Nothing severe or high-precipitation, just a thundery, high-based shower.
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hillybilly
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:17 pm

25C in the Nongs with 0.4mm of high based splats :D wind not too bad here, but was quite feral on the flats.

Be surprised if we get anything overnight. Maybe a spot or two post front.

Btw some awful heat to our northwest. 47.4C at Oodnadatta which is a new record for so early in spring for anywhere in Australia :o Most extreme heat got to about Renmark so not quite making it into most of Vic. Glad about that...
flyfisher
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:51 pm

This is the gap in the rain before the tropics fire up - I have seen it before. It will go wet again. Good opportunity for farmers to get their crops off. Make hay while the sun shines they say.

It will be up to 12 months before I am back in Belgrave after the storm/fallen trees destroyed 1/4 of my house. I wonder how windy it was there today?
flyfisher
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:00 pm

Also the SAM has gone negative - I noticed the high pressure systems were further north. Hopefully it will switch back to positive by December and pump moisture back into Australia.
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Didjman
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:24 pm

flyfisher wrote:
Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:00 pm
Also the SAM has gone negative - I noticed the high pressure systems were further north. Hopefully it will switch back to positive by December and pump moisture back into Australia.
Plus the Summer solstice is still over a month away. Not to mention the Monsoon Trough which is still north of the equator, and the MJO is in the western Indian Ocean atm.
Harley34
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 10:53 pm

Looks like Melbourne is in with a decent chance of a storm later. Lightning tracker has near Daylesford heading se direction...
James
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:07 pm

i think it will miss us slightly ...maybe scrape outer northern suburbs unless more forms south
Harley34
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:24 pm

James wrote:
Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:07 pm
i think it will miss us slightly ...maybe scrape outer northern suburbs unless more forms south
Its on track for eastern surburbs too
Wilko
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Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:30 pm

Development from Grampians also
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