Trough and front: 10-12 November

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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hillybilly
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:34 pm

Btw couple of black core right movers south of Bendigo. Long way out from radar so must be nasty. Looking at the amateur networks some spots nearing 40mm up there for the arvo :o
James
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:36 pm

great, lets see what happens tonight then.. I am slowly learning!
Chritc
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:59 pm

There are no guarantees with the weather however, just have to take what you get delivered. High based rumbles here in Gardenvale at the moment.
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Didjman
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:13 pm

Chritc wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:43 pm
Look for more storms to fire along the current dry line moving through the Otways. Could impact Melbourne around 9-10pm if they develop.
Radar is indicating backbuilding along the dry line NW of Melb
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hillybilly
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:03 pm

Wind is howling up here now, coming out of the NNE. Nearby aws showing 80km/hr gusts.

Couple of spots near Bendigo showing near 50mm. Waiting on the next band of storms to be thrown into central.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:15 pm

Just got comfy in the normal sleeping room.
Now located in the not so comfy lounge.. yes some big gusts
snowfall
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:34 pm

Quite a few rumbles of thunder here this afternoon and evening. 6.5mm so far. Currently raining but looks like it may be over for here soon.
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Didjman
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:37 pm

Is that a vnotch to my NW??????
Chritc
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:47 pm

Yes. V notch, extremely dangerous.
Skywalker
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:11 pm

Another ho hum event here, 1-2mm here earlier if that.

Moving on.... :roll:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Didjman
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:14 pm

Bom Sev Wx confirmed V Notch which dissipated on passing over the ranges. No real wind here. Max rain rate 54.5mm/hr here as it passed over.
James
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:29 pm

heard a rumble earlier but it seems thats it, is it really supposed to fire after midnight? - how is it triggered?
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Didjman
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:32 pm

Didjman wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:14 pm
Bom Sev Wx confirmed V Notch which dissipated on passing over the ranges. No real wind here. Max rain rate 54.5mm/hr here as it passed over.
I am glad it was fast moving and the temp was only 17c - as it passed right overhead!
Chritc
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:53 pm

Chances are fading now as storms failed to initiate. I think it can be put down as another near miss for the metro Melbourne area.
stevco123
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:12 pm

Chance is still there until daybreak
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
snowfall
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:50 pm

7.6mm here in the end. Don’t think we’ll be seeing anything more in these parts. The total is fairly close to overall model predictions though.
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hillybilly
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Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:48 am

James wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:29 pm
heard a rumble earlier but it seems thats it, is it really supposed to fire after midnight? - how is it triggered?
Always worth a look at the the EC meteogram (https://www.windy.com/-37.910/145.415?r ... ,145.767,7). While it’s just one model it is a good starting spot for understanding storm potential.

Storm chances were always fading after mid-night give or take. Will fire up again today, but only out east.

We’ve got a swly change later today so will see a few more showers. The air mass is quite damp, so expecting showers to be better around topography. This airstream continues til about Saturday PM.

10mm in the gauge this morning. That’s about double the progs so happy. Not a drought breaker, but keeps the garden fresh and tops the tanks up.
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Didjman
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Thu Nov 12, 2020 7:17 am

We received 14mm (mostly from that dying supercell).
Mike
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Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:29 am

16.5mm here, thunder off and on from 2pm till 9pm. Good day!
StratoBendigo
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Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:21 am

21mm here in the end. Sedgwick just 10km South of here had 43mm.
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