Trough and front: 10-12 November

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:41 am

as usual i will beleive it when I see it...so close but so far which has been the norm so far
Gordon
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:17 pm

STW just issued for a decent chunk of western Victoria - heavy rain and damaging winds.

Edit: thunder and good rain here now.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1890
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:51 pm

Storms now rolling in. And so it begins....
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1890
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:00 pm

Update - pouring rain now. Not particularly windy.
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Location: FTG
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:54 pm

Typically - it will arrive @ School pick up.
Dry so far, although radar is multi coloured.

Edit - big fat drops and 5 minutes till the bell.
Last edited by Australis(Shell3155) on Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:05 pm

Deep booming thunder in Bacchus now!!
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1241
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:52 pm

Bugger all here at moment :)
Looks like a sparky night coming up though
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 911
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:10 pm

Stop the presses.

I've heard a distant rumble of thunder and have picked up .5mm 😅
Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:18 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:54 pm
Typically - it will arrive @ School pick up.
Dry so far, although radar is multi coloured.

Edit - big fat drops and 5 minutes till the bell.
Why does this ALWAYS happen during school pick-up! Got caught in it picking up my son from school. On top of that you get the bananas on the road who have this inability to drive the moment a drop of water falls from the sky. :roll:

Radar is certainly looking like a Christmas tree at present. Going to be hit & miss for some.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:44 pm

very painful wait, its been stuck over that side of the state since last night
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1241
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:07 pm

Sean wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:10 pm
Stop the presses.

I've heard a distant rumble of thunder and have picked up .5mm 😅
:o :o
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BigTom
Cumulus
Posts: 82
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 9:01 pm
Location: Caroline Springs, Victoria

Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:08 pm

Lightning seems to be dying off as it edges closer to the Melbourne area as always :?
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:48 pm

I'm giving up, seems the weathers not working to our advantage here anymore
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 900
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:25 pm

Tas temps today: Scotts Peak 34.8, Bushy Park 33.5, Hobart 32.6, Strahan 31.4, Launceston 30.0, Wynyard 20.2
Chritc
Cumulus
Posts: 62
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:59 am

Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:43 pm

Look for more storms to fire along the current dry line moving through the Otways. Could impact Melbourne around 9-10pm if they develop.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1890
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:04 pm

13mm here so far. Still raining and thundering.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:15 pm

whats stopping the storms forming over melbourne, quite amazing how they are vanishing - what went wrong, or is this how it was planned? - I notice some of the models still say best time is later tonight / early hours is this still valid or is that pretty much it?
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hillybilly
Senior Moderator
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Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:29 pm

Great start to the event here. Was worried this wasn’t going to be a bust, but already near 7mm, perhaps ten audible rumbles and repeated heavy bursts of rain :D Radar looks very promising with big storms developing NNW of Melbourne out towards Bendigo. The whole system is about 50-100km east of the progs, so Melbourne and central is in the firing line.

Some of the cells in north central look nasty :?

Tropical feel out there with gusty winds makes it feel like the monsoon has arrived :D
stevco123
Supercell
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Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:30 pm

James wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:15 pm
whats stopping the storms forming over melbourne, quite amazing how they are vanishing - what went wrong, or is this how it was planned? - I notice some of the models still say best time is later tonight / early hours is this still valid or is that pretty much it?
Midnight to 5am. Great conditions for night storms and heavy rain
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Chritc
Cumulus
Posts: 62
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:59 am

Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Agree 100% with the last couple posts. Melbourne situated perfectly for primetime which is just about to get going. Enjoy!!!
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