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Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:37 pm
by hillybilly
Another week of unstable conditions, but this one looks like focusing more on the north and east. A trough will slowly deepen over us, with a low forming over NSW. This slowly shifts southeast eventually entering the Tasman near Gabo Island.

Showers on most days in the north and east, extending more into central during the arvo on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday could both see thunderies. Depending on the low, could be heavy falls out east, potentially wrapping into East Central.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:43 am
by dazrain
What are the chances of Melbourne breaking the all time record and not hitting 20 degrees until November?

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be 19 degrees so little margin for error.

Is there much chance BOM are going under temp wise or does it seem fairly spot on?

Temperature forecasting seems very accurate nowadays, unlike rainfall !

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am
by weathergasm
Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:46 am
by StratoBendigo
weathergasm wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
Yep. Including a 29c on Oct 4.

The gold standard for a cold start to Spring was 1992. Didn't hit 20c until Oct 13 that year!

I don't think we will get much this week. Mildura might though....

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:50 am
by stevco123
My favourite record is the "not hitting 30" record.

2001 was the year, and didn't happen until December 21 from memory

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:04 am
by StratoBendigo
stevco123 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:50 am My favourite record is the "not hitting 30" record.

2001 was the year, and didn't happen until December 21 from memory
It was actually 29th December that year!
And the summer of 2001-2002 was rather non-existent as well. Very few days above 30c, and lots under 22c.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:46 pm
by Dane
Sounds Like another system that wont deliver much here.
We are above average this month 75mm's for me and 77mm's
at Ballarat Airport - ave is 66mm's so I wont complain too much.
Not much happening this month though, No Hail, Fog, Frost,
Thunder or Lightning. Last month we had all those except Fog
We had Snow as well last month.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:14 pm
by StratoBendigo
Just getting a band of light rain coming through from the North-east. Not really anything in it.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:33 pm
by QldTwister
What a week just days of E, SE winds and weather moving E to W as the upper low just sits and spins over the NSW SA border. Huge stroms in Qld then NSw but sadly not for us.
The strong Ely winds atm just wont let up quite impressive really ad will blow most of the week to

Wet week for Gippy and the NW later this week more big falls in the Mallee looking good though not go news for the crops up there lucky next week looking warm and sunny for a few days to dry out.

Not much for Melb this week, though we dont need it, pretty wet around the place atm just the odd shower and possible strom to out N and E in coming days.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:45 pm
by WeatherViewer
QldTwister wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:33 pm What a week just days of E, SE winds and weather moving E to W as the upper low just sits and spins over the NSW SA border. Huge stroms in Qld then NSw but sadly not for us.
The strong Ely winds atm just wont let up quite impressive really ad will blow most of the week to

Wet week for Gippy and the NW later this week more big falls in the Mallee looking good though not go news for the crops up there lucky next week looking warm and sunny for a few days to dry out.

Not much for Melb this week, though we dont need it, pretty wet around the place atm just the odd shower and possible strom to out N and E in coming days.
Indeed Twister, thanks for the update.

I wouldn't mind a touch of warmth now to be quite honest, mid 20's would do just nicely for a few days :D

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:32 pm
by dazrain
weathergasm wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
We haven’t hit 20 since 15 October. We’ve never had a full run of teens from 16-31 October since records began in Melbourne.

It’s already hit 19.4 in Melbourne today so it’s close!

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm
by Wilko
Checkout the BNE radar
“Carnage”
If possible it would be appreciated if someone could recommend a reliable storm chasers link...cheers

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:44 pm
by WeatherViewer
dazrain wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:32 pm
weathergasm wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
We haven’t hit 20 since 15 October. We’ve never had a full run of teens from 16-31 October since records began in Melbourne.

It’s already hit 19.4 in Melbourne today so it’s close!
Aha that explains why I haven't been able to thaw out over the past fortnight, thanks.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:01 pm
by Adam38
Look at the Brisbane radar... I would normally be up just north of Byron Bay this time of year 😩

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:50 pm
by hillybilly
Had a few fading convective showers here this arvo.

Now we’ve got three days of showers and storms ahead. Looks best away from the coast, so might be a bit iffy in the Melbourne area. The steering aloft is from the northwest, but low level winds tend to be easterly going more southerly as the sea breezes kick in. Messy if your not near the ranges.

Expecting areas like Macedon, Wallan, Upper Yarra could do quite well. Gippsland will get lots of showers tending to rain. I struggle to see Melbourne staying below 20C each day. The airmass has warmed a lot so any sunshine will see things warm quickly.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:08 pm
by Hawker
Not really storm chasers but they put up some good posts.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/467657666688324/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/bomradarfanclub/
Wilko wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm Checkout the BNE radar
“Carnage”
If possible it would be appreciated if someone could recommend a reliable storm chasers link...cheers

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:22 am
by Wilko
Thanks Hawker

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:48 am
by hillybilly
Today looks promising for a break in our storm drough. Widespread storms central through east. Some will sneak into the west. Weak steering, so will be slow moving and pulse. LI drop to around -4 at a minimum so very unstable.

On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though in the event that cells get organised the convergence between outflow boundaries can actually enhance storms.

Thursday and Friday a repeat, though focus edging east. Friday looks nasty in the northeast into southern NSW. The LI drop as low as -7 to -8 and super cell probabilities are edging quite high :?

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:30 pm
by Blackie
hillybilly wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:48 am Today looks promising for a break in our storm drough. Widespread storms central through east. Some will sneak into the west. Weak steering, so will be slow moving and pulse. LI drop to around -4 at a minimum so very unstable.

On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though in the event that cells get organised the convergence between outflow boundaries can actually enhance storms.

Thursday and Friday a repeat, though focus edging east. Friday looks nasty in the northeast into southern NSW. The LI drop as low as -7 to -8 and super cell probabilities are edging quite high :?
I'd concur. Already lovely development going on just to our south with cu tops getting higher and higher.

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:38 pm
by Mike
Small hail in Woodend currently