Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:37 pm

James wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:01 pm
still yet to hear a rumble of thunder here so far this season


We had lots of rumbles from the Bayswater cell. Decent booms, though no rain :(

Got a heavy shower this arvo, with 2mm. No thunder but felt close.

Wet 24 hours coming up for much of northern Vic. The low will stay a bit north for most of Melbourne, but will track towards Gippsland.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:24 pm

It's starting to get a bit wet here now. Just 2mm so far...
Gordon
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Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:19 pm

3mm here, 110mm mtd. Turning into a great October.
weathergasm
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Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:30 pm

To me way of thinking, it’s all prelude this time of year. I’m just waiting for the monsoon trough to hit the mainland, that’s when significant tropical moisture is readily advected our way and we can begin tallying some real storm days.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:49 am

James wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:01 pm
still yet to hear a rumble of thunder here so far this season
Wednesday afternoon, 5 ish 2 decent ones..
your still at your same location. ?

Blackie. - nice fluffy clouds. You've experienced more seasons than melbourne in one weekend,
From balmy night Friday, lots of rain, icy chill Saturday, blowing all directions Sunday into Monday,
You must be in a great spot for weather..
James
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:51 am

oh!, perhaps it happened when i was at the shops!! I saw the cloud starting to anvil when I went in so maybe I missed it arghh!!
Skywalker
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:24 am

Bit of a boring yawn feast in this neck of the woods. Another dry & sunny morning here.
Not much in the outlook either.

2 weeks to go & counting. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:35 pm

Nice fog this morning and very damp under the trees. Looked like a few mms of drips to add to the 2mm from yesterday's showers.

Warm a muggy out with storms going up to me east. They are being steered in from the east so might get here - or not. Thinking it will be close.

Tomorrow is kinda similar. Another day of rain and storms to our north over NSW.
weathergasm
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:49 pm

Worth keeping an eye on the radar if you’re anywhere east of the city, but otherwise I’m not hopeful for today. Latest sounding for Melbourne doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.
Dane
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:24 pm

Havent heard any thunder here since 22nd of September.
Had a couple of light showers here yesterday just 0.5mm's
in it.
There will be nothing today. Not much for a while by the Looks of it.
Blackie
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:47 pm

STW just issued for here. Absolutely beautiful structure going on in all directions at the moment. Snapped this monster NE of Mansfield a short time ago.
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weathergasm
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:12 pm

Very heavy, convective burst of big fat drops here in Box Hill. Only lasted a few seconds.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:17 pm

A remarkable failure in the weather forecast models today. Most of them had huge rainfall totals up around Robinvale and Mildura for today which would've been destructive to crops.

And thankfully they only got a few mm.
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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:36 pm

Another day of frustration here with storms wrapping under us in an easterly only to travel north to our west. Like that never happens :o (well not what I can recall).

Had one brief thundery shower but nothing in the gauge.
snowfall
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Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:08 am

5.4mm here today. Had a heavy shower earlier this evening, but no thunder unfortunately. It has been quite humid and turning cloudy and misty in the afternoons with the odd shower. Currently quite a thick fog. Not much rain on the horizon at the moment though, with patterns favouring the north and especially NSW.

Looks like the La Niña may strengthen a bit in the coming weeks, but it’s a shame the predicted negative IOD never quite eventuated. Even so, waters are warmer than average around most of the country, so hopefully it won’t take too much for some decent rain events to form.
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Didjman
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Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:28 am

I am thinking of heading out on a chase up to Benalla around lunchtime as a possible target area. On the BoM grid point wind charts, shear does not look great and steering is weak from the SE, so anything will be slow moving. Conditions look similar to yesterday, so not expecting anything SW of about Mansfield. What do others think?
Sean
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Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:53 am

The next 7 days look mostly uneventful and boring, though we get a decent spurt of beach weather.
Blackie
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Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:30 pm

Didjman wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:28 am
I am thinking of heading out on a chase up to Benalla around lunchtime as a possible target area. On the BoM grid point wind charts, shear does not look great and steering is weak from the SE, so anything will be slow moving. Conditions look similar to yesterday, so not expecting anything SW of about Mansfield. What do others think?
Think you're right with your thinking there Didj. Some build up occurring the east of here but doesn't look or feel as convective as last two days.
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Didjman
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Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:05 pm

Also, the Wagga sounding isn't showing anything pushing above around 20000ft. Have decided to stay home. Long drive for just cloudscapes.
snowfall
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Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:56 pm

Cold and damp day here today, with a further 5.8mm and a max of 12c. Wouldn’t have known looking at the radar, as it all came in the form of persistent drizzle until about lunchtime. Overcast and misty for the rest of the day - haven’t seen any sun at all!
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