Another week of unstable conditions, but this one looks like focusing more on the north and east. A trough will slowly deepen over us, with a low forming over NSW. This slowly shifts southeast eventually entering the Tasman near Gabo Island.
Showers on most days in the north and east, extending more into central during the arvo on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday could both see thunderies. Depending on the low, could be heavy falls out east, potentially wrapping into East Central.
Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
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hillybilly
- Senior Moderator
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What are the chances of Melbourne breaking the all time record and not hitting 20 degrees until November?
Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be 19 degrees so little margin for error.
Is there much chance BOM are going under temp wise or does it seem fairly spot on?
Temperature forecasting seems very accurate nowadays, unlike rainfall !
Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be 19 degrees so little margin for error.
Is there much chance BOM are going under temp wise or does it seem fairly spot on?
Temperature forecasting seems very accurate nowadays, unlike rainfall !
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weathergasm
- Cumulonimbus
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- Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
- Location: Elwood home, CBD work
Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already 
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StratoBendigo
- Supercell
- Posts: 1888
- Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
- Location: Kangaroo Flat
Yep. Including a 29c on Oct 4.
The gold standard for a cold start to Spring was 1992. Didn't hit 20c until Oct 13 that year!
I don't think we will get much this week. Mildura might though....
My favourite record is the "not hitting 30" record.
2001 was the year, and didn't happen until December 21 from memory
2001 was the year, and didn't happen until December 21 from memory
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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StratoBendigo
- Supercell
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It was actually 29th December that year!
And the summer of 2001-2002 was rather non-existent as well. Very few days above 30c, and lots under 22c.
Sounds Like another system that wont deliver much here.
We are above average this month 75mm's for me and 77mm's
at Ballarat Airport - ave is 66mm's so I wont complain too much.
Not much happening this month though, No Hail, Fog, Frost,
Thunder or Lightning. Last month we had all those except Fog
We had Snow as well last month.
We are above average this month 75mm's for me and 77mm's
at Ballarat Airport - ave is 66mm's so I wont complain too much.
Not much happening this month though, No Hail, Fog, Frost,
Thunder or Lightning. Last month we had all those except Fog
We had Snow as well last month.
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StratoBendigo
- Supercell
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- Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
- Location: Kangaroo Flat
Just getting a band of light rain coming through from the North-east. Not really anything in it.
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QldTwister
- Cumulonimbus
- Posts: 232
- Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
- Location: Ashwood Vic
What a week just days of E, SE winds and weather moving E to W as the upper low just sits and spins over the NSW SA border. Huge stroms in Qld then NSw but sadly not for us.
The strong Ely winds atm just wont let up quite impressive really ad will blow most of the week to
Wet week for Gippy and the NW later this week more big falls in the Mallee looking good though not go news for the crops up there lucky next week looking warm and sunny for a few days to dry out.
Not much for Melb this week, though we dont need it, pretty wet around the place atm just the odd shower and possible strom to out N and E in coming days.
The strong Ely winds atm just wont let up quite impressive really ad will blow most of the week to
Wet week for Gippy and the NW later this week more big falls in the Mallee looking good though not go news for the crops up there lucky next week looking warm and sunny for a few days to dry out.
Not much for Melb this week, though we dont need it, pretty wet around the place atm just the odd shower and possible strom to out N and E in coming days.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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WeatherViewer
- Cumulonimbus
- Posts: 361
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:57 pm
- Location: Truganina
Indeed Twister, thanks for the update.QldTwister wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:33 pmWhat a week just days of E, SE winds and weather moving E to W as the upper low just sits and spins over the NSW SA border. Huge stroms in Qld then NSw but sadly not for us.
The strong Ely winds atm just wont let up quite impressive really ad will blow most of the week to
Wet week for Gippy and the NW later this week more big falls in the Mallee looking good though not go news for the crops up there lucky next week looking warm and sunny for a few days to dry out.
Not much for Melb this week, though we dont need it, pretty wet around the place atm just the odd shower and possible strom to out N and E in coming days.
I wouldn't mind a touch of warmth now to be quite honest, mid 20's would do just nicely for a few days
We haven’t hit 20 since 15 October. We’ve never had a full run of teens from 16-31 October since records began in Melbourne.
It’s already hit 19.4 in Melbourne today so it’s close!
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WeatherViewer
- Cumulonimbus
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- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:57 pm
- Location: Truganina
Aha that explains why I haven't been able to thaw out over the past fortnight, thanks.
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hillybilly
- Senior Moderator
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- Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Had a few fading convective showers here this arvo.
Now we’ve got three days of showers and storms ahead. Looks best away from the coast, so might be a bit iffy in the Melbourne area. The steering aloft is from the northwest, but low level winds tend to be easterly going more southerly as the sea breezes kick in. Messy if your not near the ranges.
Expecting areas like Macedon, Wallan, Upper Yarra could do quite well. Gippsland will get lots of showers tending to rain. I struggle to see Melbourne staying below 20C each day. The airmass has warmed a lot so any sunshine will see things warm quickly.
Now we’ve got three days of showers and storms ahead. Looks best away from the coast, so might be a bit iffy in the Melbourne area. The steering aloft is from the northwest, but low level winds tend to be easterly going more southerly as the sea breezes kick in. Messy if your not near the ranges.
Expecting areas like Macedon, Wallan, Upper Yarra could do quite well. Gippsland will get lots of showers tending to rain. I struggle to see Melbourne staying below 20C each day. The airmass has warmed a lot so any sunshine will see things warm quickly.
Not really storm chasers but they put up some good posts.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/467657666688324/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/bomradarfanclub/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/467657666688324/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/bomradarfanclub/
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hillybilly
- Senior Moderator
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- Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
- Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Today looks promising for a break in our storm drough. Widespread storms central through east. Some will sneak into the west. Weak steering, so will be slow moving and pulse. LI drop to around -4 at a minimum so very unstable.
On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though in the event that cells get organised the convergence between outflow boundaries can actually enhance storms.
Thursday and Friday a repeat, though focus edging east. Friday looks nasty in the northeast into southern NSW. The LI drop as low as -7 to -8 and super cell probabilities are edging quite high
On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though in the event that cells get organised the convergence between outflow boundaries can actually enhance storms.
Thursday and Friday a repeat, though focus edging east. Friday looks nasty in the northeast into southern NSW. The LI drop as low as -7 to -8 and super cell probabilities are edging quite high
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Blackie
- Cumulonimbus
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- Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:36 pm
- Location: Elwood and Mansfield Victoria
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I'd concur. Already lovely development going on just to our south with cu tops getting higher and higher.hillybilly wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:48 amToday looks promising for a break in our storm drough. Widespread storms central through east. Some will sneak into the west. Weak steering, so will be slow moving and pulse. LI drop to around -4 at a minimum so very unstable.
On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though in the event that cells get organised the convergence between outflow boundaries can actually enhance storms.
Thursday and Friday a repeat, though focus edging east. Friday looks nasty in the northeast into southern NSW. The LI drop as low as -7 to -8 and super cell probabilities are edging quite high
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