Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

Moderator: Rivergirl

Forum rules
When posting photos, particularly in active breaking weather threads, please link to clickable photos to minimise download issues. For more information, see Posting Photo Guidelines for more information. Threads that are six weeks old or older will be Archived Here
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3894
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:37 pm

Another week of unstable conditions, but this one looks like focusing more on the north and east. A trough will slowly deepen over us, with a low forming over NSW. This slowly shifts southeast eventually entering the Tasman near Gabo Island.

Showers on most days in the north and east, extending more into central during the arvo on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday could both see thunderies. Depending on the low, could be heavy falls out east, potentially wrapping into East Central.
dazrain
Cumulus
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:39 pm
Location: Brighton East, Victoria

Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:43 am

What are the chances of Melbourne breaking the all time record and not hitting 20 degrees until November?

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be 19 degrees so little margin for error.

Is there much chance BOM are going under temp wise or does it seem fairly spot on?

Temperature forecasting seems very accurate nowadays, unlike rainfall !
weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 149
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Elwood home, CBD work

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am

Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1885
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:46 am

weathergasm wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am
Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
Yep. Including a 29c on Oct 4.

The gold standard for a cold start to Spring was 1992. Didn't hit 20c until Oct 13 that year!

I don't think we will get much this week. Mildura might though....
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2494
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:50 am

My favourite record is the "not hitting 30" record.

2001 was the year, and didn't happen until December 21 from memory
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1885
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:04 am

stevco123 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:50 am
My favourite record is the "not hitting 30" record.

2001 was the year, and didn't happen until December 21 from memory
It was actually 29th December that year!
And the summer of 2001-2002 was rather non-existent as well. Very few days above 30c, and lots under 22c.
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1544
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:46 pm

Sounds Like another system that wont deliver much here.
We are above average this month 75mm's for me and 77mm's
at Ballarat Airport - ave is 66mm's so I wont complain too much.
Not much happening this month though, No Hail, Fog, Frost,
Thunder or Lightning. Last month we had all those except Fog
We had Snow as well last month.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1885
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:14 pm

Just getting a band of light rain coming through from the North-east. Not really anything in it.
QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 232
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:33 pm

What a week just days of E, SE winds and weather moving E to W as the upper low just sits and spins over the NSW SA border. Huge stroms in Qld then NSw but sadly not for us.
The strong Ely winds atm just wont let up quite impressive really ad will blow most of the week to

Wet week for Gippy and the NW later this week more big falls in the Mallee looking good though not go news for the crops up there lucky next week looking warm and sunny for a few days to dry out.

Not much for Melb this week, though we dont need it, pretty wet around the place atm just the odd shower and possible strom to out N and E in coming days.
Bring on the heat and stroms
WeatherViewer
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 361
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:57 pm
Location: Truganina

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:45 pm

QldTwister wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:33 pm
What a week just days of E, SE winds and weather moving E to W as the upper low just sits and spins over the NSW SA border. Huge stroms in Qld then NSw but sadly not for us.
The strong Ely winds atm just wont let up quite impressive really ad will blow most of the week to

Wet week for Gippy and the NW later this week more big falls in the Mallee looking good though not go news for the crops up there lucky next week looking warm and sunny for a few days to dry out.

Not much for Melb this week, though we dont need it, pretty wet around the place atm just the odd shower and possible strom to out N and E in coming days.
Indeed Twister, thanks for the update.

I wouldn't mind a touch of warmth now to be quite honest, mid 20's would do just nicely for a few days :D
dazrain
Cumulus
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:39 pm
Location: Brighton East, Victoria

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:32 pm

weathergasm wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am
Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
We haven’t hit 20 since 15 October. We’ve never had a full run of teens from 16-31 October since records began in Melbourne.

It’s already hit 19.4 in Melbourne today so it’s close!
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1239
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm

Checkout the BNE radar
“Carnage”
If possible it would be appreciated if someone could recommend a reliable storm chasers link...cheers
WeatherViewer
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 361
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:57 pm
Location: Truganina

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:44 pm

dazrain wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:32 pm
weathergasm wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am
Fairly sure we’ve had several days over 20c already :)
We haven’t hit 20 since 15 October. We’ve never had a full run of teens from 16-31 October since records began in Melbourne.

It’s already hit 19.4 in Melbourne today so it’s close!
Aha that explains why I haven't been able to thaw out over the past fortnight, thanks.
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 376
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:01 pm

Look at the Brisbane radar... I would normally be up just north of Byron Bay this time of year 😩
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3894
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:50 pm

Had a few fading convective showers here this arvo.

Now we’ve got three days of showers and storms ahead. Looks best away from the coast, so might be a bit iffy in the Melbourne area. The steering aloft is from the northwest, but low level winds tend to be easterly going more southerly as the sea breezes kick in. Messy if your not near the ranges.

Expecting areas like Macedon, Wallan, Upper Yarra could do quite well. Gippsland will get lots of showers tending to rain. I struggle to see Melbourne staying below 20C each day. The airmass has warmed a lot so any sunshine will see things warm quickly.
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 402
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:08 pm

Not really storm chasers but they put up some good posts.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/467657666688324/
https://www.facebook.com/groups/bomradarfanclub/
Wilko wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:33 pm
Checkout the BNE radar
“Carnage”
If possible it would be appreciated if someone could recommend a reliable storm chasers link...cheers
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1239
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:22 am

Thanks Hawker
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3894
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:48 am

Today looks promising for a break in our storm drough. Widespread storms central through east. Some will sneak into the west. Weak steering, so will be slow moving and pulse. LI drop to around -4 at a minimum so very unstable.

On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though in the event that cells get organised the convergence between outflow boundaries can actually enhance storms.

Thursday and Friday a repeat, though focus edging east. Friday looks nasty in the northeast into southern NSW. The LI drop as low as -7 to -8 and super cell probabilities are edging quite high :?
Blackie
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 459
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:36 pm
Location: Elwood and Mansfield Victoria
Contact:

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:30 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:48 am
Today looks promising for a break in our storm drough. Widespread storms central through east. Some will sneak into the west. Weak steering, so will be slow moving and pulse. LI drop to around -4 at a minimum so very unstable.

On these days the sea breeze can keep storms away from the coast, though in the event that cells get organised the convergence between outflow boundaries can actually enhance storms.

Thursday and Friday a repeat, though focus edging east. Friday looks nasty in the northeast into southern NSW. The LI drop as low as -7 to -8 and super cell probabilities are edging quite high :?
I'd concur. Already lovely development going on just to our south with cu tops getting higher and higher.
Attachments
IMG_0508.jpg
IMG_0508.jpg (54.3 KiB) Viewed 879 times
IMG_0507.jpg
IMG_0507.jpg (99.47 KiB) Viewed 879 times
Mike
Cumulus
Posts: 44
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Location: Woodend 578m

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:38 pm

Small hail in Woodend currently
Post Reply