another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

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Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:20 am

Good morning all. :)

Perfect conditions out there for the morning walk with the Kelpie.

Really hope this one comes off & we get a decent drink. Planning on throwing some fertilizer on the plants, however not going to bother if it fizzers out yet again.
dazrain wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:35 pm
 .........and Skywalker will need medication

Haha. :laughing: I know Daz.
I actually have the perfect medication in mind, a visit to my house down on the island.
Oh wait, hang on......... :cussing:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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dazrain
Cumulus
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:39 pm
Location: Brighton East, Victoria

Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:40 am

Skywalker wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:20 am
 Good morning all. :)

Perfect conditions out there for the morning walk with the Kelpie.

Really hope this one comes off & we get a decent drink. Planning on throwing some fertilizer on the plants, however not going to bother if it fizzers out yet again.
dazrain wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:35 pm
 .........and Skywalker will need medication

Haha. :laughing: I know Daz.
I actually have the perfect medication in mind, a visit to my house down on the island.
Oh wait, hang on......... :cussing:
The island house on Phillip Island?

Yep, you will be allowed to visit there on Sunday to clean up after the storm/rain/flood disaster that will hit the island tonight and tomorrow.

That’s of course after you’ve watered the garden in the Western Desert.
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Adam38
Cumulonimbus
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Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:47 am

I’ve finally got a weather station set up and connected to the weather underground app, now just waiting for some weather lol...
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QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 233
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:23 pm

Mildura radar is down :cussing: :cussing: :cussing:
Big rain and stroms up there later today, overnight and in the early morning but cant see it coming down from the North so annoying WORST timing

Another intresting event and like what the 5th or 6th inland low to pass through in 2 months amazing run atm

Still cool here and looks like foucs of best stuff will be along the Murray and NE Vic next 36 hours, will be some very heavy localised falls.

Over all this cool almost cold weather and will go all next week to with cloud and showers at times I want the warm moist NE winds and high 20s lol

Showers developing across much of northern Vic atm and should only increase during the day tending to rain and TS tonight another intresting Friday night ahead
Bring on the heat and stroms
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StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1890
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:58 pm

GFS and ICON have 2mm for us now. Non event here.
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Supercellimpact
Supercell
Posts: 1205
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2010 8:39 pm
Location: North Bendigo

Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:06 pm

What the hell happened in 24hrs to go from 20-40mm and heavy rain to under 5mm ?

Doesn't make sense.
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Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 402
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:17 pm

Hasn't happened yet, heaviest rain is meant to be overnight,
the low is up at Pt Augusta depends where it goes, but it doesn't
really look like the whole system is getting its act together.
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StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:21 pm

Supercellimpact wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:06 pm
 What the hell happened in 24hrs to go from 20-40mm and heavy rain to under 5mm ?

Doesn't make sense.
Computational fluid dynamics is difficult when it comes to precipitation. Especially when there are so many variables and a dependency on data that has been missing this year (due to fewer airliners).
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James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:35 pm

suns peeking out here now and then, and my plants are all leaning over awaiting this rain......will I water, or will I be patient??
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weathergasm
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Posts: 149
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Elwood home, CBD work

Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:56 pm

It seems to me nothing much is expected to happen until late tonight, when moderate rain should set in for the Melbourne metro area. Seems to mostly clear by Saturday afternoon.

I wouldn’t put money on heavy rain or thunderstorms, it’s not that type of system. At least, not for non-elevated central areas of Victoria.
Last edited by weathergasm on Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1241
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:57 pm

Be patient my friend
It will bucket down tonight
I like the set up and the weather coming from the NW...
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StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:20 pm

Only 1mm in Mildura so far. There's nothing in it. As weak as American beer.
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James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 907
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:36 pm

isolated thunderstorms - possibly severe is forecast in latest bom update, ok lets see....I will believe it when it happens!
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Gordon
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:55 pm

Supercellimpact wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:06 pm
 What the hell happened in 24hrs to go from 20-40mm and heavy rain to under 5mm ?

Doesn't make sense.
BOM still sticking with their SWW for heavy rain for Bendigo as of a few minutes ago; map virtually unchanged since the 10.38am one. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml
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StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1890
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:06 pm

Gordon wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:55 pm
Supercellimpact wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:06 pm
 What the hell happened in 24hrs to go from 20-40mm and heavy rain to under 5mm ?

Doesn't make sense.
BOM still sticking with their SWW for heavy rain for Bendigo as of a few minutes ago; map virtually unchanged since the 10.38am one. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml
Weird. 00z EC has aligned with GFS and ICON for just a few mm here.
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Gordon
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:29 pm

I know - it's fascinating. I guess I have to assume BOM knows something which isn't obvious to amateurs like me :).
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Supercellimpact
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2010 8:39 pm
Location: North Bendigo

Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:50 pm

Bom is probs just covering their ass in case a storm causes flash flooding.
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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:18 pm

Warm humid one here but murk killing convection chances. Been raining lightly but just 0.2mm in the gauge. Complex system with one low near Melbourne and another near Port Augusta. Expecting heavy falls next 24 hours over the northeast. As you head west it will thin out. Could get anywhere between 15 and 50mm here. Not really seeing heavy falls here, but hope to be proven wrong :?
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StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1890
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:35 pm

AXS-G is suggesting 20mm here in early hours of tomorrow morning until 9am. Nothing much expected before midnight. Intriguing.
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Dane
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:01 pm

Just 0.4mm's here so far and radar not that encouraging.
Could be another miss for us. :x
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