another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

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QldTwister
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:38 pm

Amazing week or 2 coming up, very wet for the east coast inclueing eastern Vic . :o :o :o
DAM I LOVE La Nina waited 9 years for this lol, great that its back, huge 6 months ahead get ready :D :D :D :D

Friday could see very heavy rain along the Murray and in NE Vic and even SE NSW

Wet around Melb but nothing huge most should see 10-30mm again with isol falls closer to 40mm,
NE Vic over 100mm and under storms more so 30 to 50mm.
SW will miss out but they need to dry out they have had alot of rain in the last month or so.

Bad news for Ag though with all this rain, it will really downgrade many crops espically in NSW and parts of Vic looking at there best in years so hopefully missed most of the crops. Flood in NE be great for the dams and give murray a good flush.

Have to remember the first 4 months EVERY System peaked in Melbourne and we always got the heavist falls so good to share around.
We have already had a great year and liklely many of us to see another 100-250mm by end of the year.

Here come the floods folks
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:01 am

Usual prog wiggle continues. Currently totals here for the weekend range from about 25mm in the EC to near 100mm in the UK, ACCESS and German model. CMC and French model sit in between. Hoping for some weather excitement out here.

We could see the odd shower this arvo.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:36 am

One thing that will mitigate flooding is the fact that most big riverine storages have heaps of room to capture most of the inflows.

Hopefully not too much rain in the cropping regions as they don't want degradation of crops.

Anything from 15-70mm seems possible here in the next few days. I tend to think we'll get less than 30mm.
Skywalker
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:35 pm

QldTwister wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:38 pm
Here come the floods folks
Gotta love your enthusiasm Twister. :hysteria:
I do wonder if you would share the same kind of optimism living out here in the western suburbs. :P

Really hope that it's a matter of third time lucky & we finally get a decent drop with this system.
Time will tell.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:28 pm

Lightening maps is looking good
Along with SA Radar.

Frantically mowing. Well maybe not frantic.

Ben like your page.. will enjoy watching the numbers go up - thanks for sharing.

Let it rain.. will be reading thread backwards as often happens..
weathergasm
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:39 pm

I’ve seen some model outputs indicating this event will be focused in the north and east of the state - will assume moderate falls (30mm total for Friday and Saturday?) for Melbourne at this point, the real action looks to be happening elsewhere.
Sean
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:54 pm

weathergasm wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:39 pm
I’ve seen some model outputs indicating this event will be focused in the north and east of the state - will assume moderate falls (30mm total for Friday and Saturday?) for Melbourne at this point, the real action looks to be happening elsewhere.
Pretty much. GFS has now shifted the heavy rain NE (in line with EC).

It's really annoying how all the best systems always have an NE focus :|
dazrain
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:35 pm

Why is BOM going for 15-30mm?

Sure, hillbilly will get drenched, but inner Melbourne I’m guessing will be lucky to get 10mm

.........and Skywalker will need medication 🤪
James
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:43 pm

after all the fails for this area in terms of storms so far, I have very little expectations this time around
Dane
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:41 pm

Bit of a downgrade for here. Heavier Rain looks likely to be further East and North of us.
BOM now going for 13 to 25mm's over the next 2 days.
Think we will get 10 to 20mm's though.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:23 pm

dazrain wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:35 pm
Why is BOM going for 15-30mm?

Sure, hillbilly will get drenched, but inner Melbourne I’m guessing will be lucky to get 10mm

.........and Skywalker will need medication 🤪
Refer 00z EC model output. Brace yourself. That is all.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:04 pm

James wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:43 pm
after all the fails for this area in terms of storms so far, I have very little expectations this time around
https://www.lightningmaps.org Plenty out there..

WZ app says 10-23c and 40mm to 80mm. James get a tarp...
QldTwister
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:07 pm

Hahah Skywalker.
I should say that floods be in NE Vic and NSW and soon Qld, not in city lol, city never floods just the odd flash flood if lucky.

Big 36 hours for the State should see big falls along the Murray and in NE Vic, Central areas, and along and north of ranges should do well too lots of 40 to 80mm falls over 100mm in the NE.
Mallee could see a few months worth of rain in quick time, not good news for crops up there though.

Another system full of tight rainfall gradients, heavy falls right next to little. Hit and miss some will get torrentail rain
Liklely lots of Minors and few Mod floods in NE Vic over the weekend with all the rain and Yarra might go back into flood too

Should see another 10-20mm for most of Melb higher falls if we get lucky

Upper low stalls over SE Aus next week but just cloud showers cold and SE winds for us big week of stroms for Qld coast but lucky buggers

Should be fun watching tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Supercellimpact
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Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:03 pm

Weatherzone has heavy rain and 20-40mm down for here. Looking good.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:48 am

All the rain is likely to fall well to our North and East. Probably not a bad thing for crop quality.
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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:57 am

6-12 hours out and still a pretty frustrating split on the models which range from about 20 to about 80mm here. Looks like the first band of rain passes mainly along the west coast into Bass Strait. Mid to late afternoon a large area of rain with some embed storms develop across the eastern half of the state.

The divide for heavy rain seems to be about Melbourne, but could be around 100km either side.

Rainy Saturday slowly clearing. Northeast into the Snowys will see big falls, with warnings posted,

The low back in SA is impressive, with a pressure not far off 990hPa. Not often you get such low pressures in a low forming over land in spring.
Hawker
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:05 am

EC is not interested for much here, up to 5 today up to 10 tomorrow.
Pushing it more into NSW
Edit, access g looks a bit better but still iffy, cross your fingers territory.
snowfall
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:12 am

Yeah the picture is a bit mixed despite the really close timeframe. More than ever, it looks like a case of just waiting to see what appears on radar later today. Could be a fair amount of hit and miss. I rather suspect the heaviest falls will be to the north and east of us here, but I guess it remains to be seen. A brief shower just came through here, headed down to Melbourne, but not enough to register in the gauge.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:16 am

18z ICON downgrades to just 5mm for here. Hilarious.
Gordon
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Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:13 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:16 am
18z ICON downgrades to just 5mm for here. Hilarious.
It is a bit - SWW issued at 10.38am for Heavy Rainfall comfortably includes Bendigo (and Castlemaine Hawker)... http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml
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