another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

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Didjman
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Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:34 pm

Will this be a La Nina onslaught or another fizzer? At time of writing Access and GFS suggesting the former!
wobbie
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Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:00 pm

I don't know, but let's hope so. It feels like great things are always 7-days away, and then they just become a bit average in reality. It was explained really well in the last thread (in terms of comparing Sydney to Melbourne). It would be nice to have a surprise over-delivering system
gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2020101906z.start-0.stop-192.vic..1.png
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:29 am

Gfs and CMC are looking good this morning. Potential that Friday could be a good thundery outbreak with very high precipitable water values for October (approaching 40mm) and a deepening trough to our west. Rainy Saturday and showers Sunday. Waiting on EC to update.
Hawker
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Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:38 am

EC not so keen, but still early on, as usual lately
will just have to wait and see what falls out of the sky.
StratoBendigo
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Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:00 am

GFS is still keen. 25mm on Saturday, and then a similar amount Sunday night-Monday.
Wilko
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Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:06 pm

Humidity increases Thursday and Friday over Victoria with a low pressure system crossing central Australia on Friday and steering East
I’m not convinced as the bulk of the rain will be North of us however
Quote from Weatherzone”

“Looking further ahead, there's a good chance that dangerous rain and thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of eastern and southeastern Australia into the beginning of next week as well. Some models even suggest that a new trough will reignite thunderstorm activity over northern and central Australia early next week.

The coming week's dynamic weather pattern will produce severe weather in multiple states on multiple days. Heavy rain, damaging to destructive winds and large hail and all possible, so make sure you keep up to date with the latest warnings and forecasts for your area.
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 am

The latest Progs are looking remarkable. Big, long lived wet system. Showers and some storms Friday becoming widespread rain Saturday, slowly clearing. But... the upper trough stays parked over inland southeast Australia so it now doesn’t clear but showers, rain and some storms continue right through next week with a surface trough which slowly deepens with deep easterly upslide. Progs showing falls approaching 200mm about the northeast highlands, while most the rest of Vic sees at least a months worth of rain.

Looking like both “long weekends” could be washouts at this point.
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Didjman
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:08 am

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 am
The latest Progs are looking remarkable. Big, long lived wet system. but showers, rain and some storms continue right through next week with a surface trough which slowly deepens with deep easterly upslide. Looking like both “long weekends” could be washouts at this point.
That's why I didn't put an end date on the thread title :D Even a few days ago, the models were showing possible severe weather right through next week!
Skywalker
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:44 am

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 am
while most the rest of Vic sees at least a months worth of rain.
I will believe that when I see it.

Someone had the sprinkler going in my street yesterday, that's how much confidence people in my area have of receiving a decent drop anytime soon.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
StratoBendigo
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:43 am

Realistically I'm seeing 20-40mm possible up to Monday for here. Main action is Friday night into Saturday morning, and then a bit more on Monday morning.

Currently on 60mm MTD. Heaps of rain on the NE mountains would be great - that'll flow straight into the big Goulburn Murray storages like Eildon, Hume, and Dartmouth Dams which are sitting on 66, 75, and 59% capacity respectively.
James
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:55 am

I'm reserving judgement/excitement till the day when it happens, will this one be more thundery - actual storms?

I remember when it was reasonably common for it to be stormy around Halloween and it was quite funny seeing people dressed up, with the appropriate (real) thunder and lightning effects! :D
93ben
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:50 pm

I recently got myself a weather station... https://tempestwx.com/station/29972 so looking forward to see what it records.
wobbie
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:17 pm

Skywalker wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:44 am
hillybilly wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:52 am
while most the rest of Vic sees at least a months worth of rain.
I will believe that when I see it.

Someone had the sprinkler going in my street yesterday, that's how much confidence people in my area have of receiving a decent drop anytime soon.
I'm would hope to at least bring October up to average here, so 30mm perhaps and bonus for extra
StratoBendigo
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:54 pm

00Z GFS has 30mm, the usually conservative ICON has ..... gulp ..... 70mm!
Sean
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:21 pm

Looking good, but the heaviest rain is moving all over the place...

GFS -- as of now -- has storms (in the metro) late afternoon/early evening on Friday, with heavy rainfall charging through Melbourne very early Saturday morning. However, the storms are (again) more likely north of the range. Also, EC tends to confine the heaviest rain north of the range, i.e. missing metro Melbourne (expect more disagreement and change).

This pattern is very La Ninish, with vast areas of potential rainfall. We don't tend to see whole state, multiday rain events like this in neutral/El Nino years, but don't count on heavy rain/storms. The models are struggling to pinpoint them (also, 'severe storms', i.e. proper cells, look confined to NSW/QLD). It'll be another case of most people doing okay, while some do very well.
StratoBendigo
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:25 pm

Sean wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:21 pm
Looking good, but the heaviest rain is moving all over the place...

GFS -- as of now -- has storms (in the metro) late afternoon/early evening on Friday, with heavy rainfall charging through Melbourne very early Saturday morning. However, the storms are (again) more likely north of the range. Also, EC tends to confine the heaviest rain north of the range, i.e. missing metro Melbourne (expect more disagreement and change).

This pattern is very La Ninish, with vast areas of potential rainfall. We don't tend to see whole state, multiday rain events like this in neutral/El Nino years, but don't count on heavy rain/storms. The models are struggling to pinpoint them (also, 'severe storms', i.e. proper cells, look confined to NSW/QLD). It'll be another case of most people doing okay, while some do very well.
Yes. A very 2010 and 2016 feel to the weather at present.
weathergasm
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:05 pm

Maybe this is the event that breaks the spell of somewhat (but not entirely) disappointing events for the Melbourne metro area recently. I personally won’t believe it until I see it on radar, but looking forward to see how it pans out.👍
Hawker
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:40 pm

BOM is saying 9 to 25 for Fri/Sat for me, looking at the models probably seems to be fair.
A bit of a variation or storm could see double that, but looks like
the more north or east, the more rain.
stevco123
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:54 pm

This is nothing like 2010/11. In that event, when 5mm was forecat, you could count on at least 25mm.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Sean
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Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:24 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:54 pm
This is nothing like 2010/11. In that event, when 5mm was forecat, you could count on at least 25mm.
Maybe in southern Vic, but inland QLD and NSW are doing well. Plus, it’s only been an ‘official’ La Niña for a few weeks. By midsummer, we might be under water, who knows... La Niña has a strong association with wet weather, but there have been poor La Niña years, so we’ll see.
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