Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:01 am

7mm in the gauge this morning. Cold out there with a temp of just 4C.

High skips through to our south and trough which develops into a new low moves in quickly. Looks increasingly like this will target the northeast with big falls. Most of the north sees ok falls, while southwest misses out. Some storms, which are already firing, though strikes me as more of a rain event than a storm event. Expecting around 25mm at here. Could be locally 100mm about the higher parts of the northeast.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:21 am

Lots of wind and 1mm overnight.
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Didjman
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:24 am

Currently 6C here with 3.5mm up until midnight. Nothing since.
snowfall
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:56 pm

Just started raining here. radar is not looking too bad, although it's currently showing the rain area shifting eastwards.

We had just over 6mm here last night, most of which came in the form of drizzle following the front.
weathergasm
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:24 pm

Substantial downgrade in the BOM’s rainfall forecast for Melbourne tomorrow, now forecasting 3-10mm with ‘moderate’ falls predicted for the outer eastern suburbs. Up until 4:20pm the forecast was for 15-25mm, if I recall correctly.

The placement and timing of these lows just haven’t seemed to favour us recently. Looking at the synoptic chart I’m guessing the low is moving further/faster to the east than originally predicted.

Still possible the low could wobble west or stall so I guess we’ll just have to see what tomorrow brings.
Last edited by weathergasm on Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
James
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:32 pm

its always the pattern, everything looks fine until close to the event then it downgrades, that's not really "forecasting" IMO when you can always change it when the time is closer.

how accurate are these models, are these statistics anywhere for these?

I've watched the BSCH models for years and cant say they have ever been reliable or things happen where it says, their usefulness is pretty random
James
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:33 pm

and i might add the times we have the best weather are almost always when its not predicted!
weathergasm
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:36 pm

The weather is difficult to predict, guy. Particularly the track and speed of low pressure systems. The BOM can’t just look at what the model ensemble is telling them will happen and say “well, the last few times it said Melbourne would receive 25mm it didn’t happen so let’s just cut the forecast rainfall in half!”
James
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:55 pm

weathergasm wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:36 pm
The weather is difficult to predict, guy. Particularly the track and speed of low pressure systems. The BOM can’t just look at what the model ensemble is telling them will happen and say “well, the last few times it said Melbourne would receive 25mm it didn’t happen so let’s just cut the forecast rainfall in half!”
But that's exactly my point, nobody really knows, its not predictable to that level, yet we still have forecasts and models and other things that really achieve (in the scheme of things) a narrow range of probability to what actually turned out to happen. But we still seem to feel we can trust them, and plan by them etc to a greater level than it can offer in reality.

Its what makes it interesting I suppose, and when it doesn't happen as planned I am always curious to know what happened that wasn't according to the "model" or forecast. Forgive my posts moaning, and thanks for the ones that do reply explaining what actually happened in the end, i still find it all very interesting!
Dane
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:55 pm

BOM have downgraded the Rainfall for tomorrow from 10 to 20mm's to 2 to 6mm's in Ballarat.
So Looking like another fizzer. Just 0.8mm's up to 9am here in Sebastopol and just 0.2mm's
since 9am today. Radar not looking very promising here either. :x
StratoBendigo
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:14 pm

Rain has been getting gradually heavier in the past hour. Up to 5mm so far today.
Hawker
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:38 pm

6 mm here so far, looks to be about it if the low can't crank it up more.
snowfall
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:42 pm

3mm here this afternoon and 9.6mm since yesterday. Might be a little bit more in it this evening (it's still raining very lightly), although the main rain band has slid well east now. I guess we'll see how it goes when the airflow shifts more southerly tomorrow. While the models probably overcooked it a bit for central areas, there was a general trend over the past couple of days toward pushing the main rain further east.
stevco123
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:48 pm

So the main consensus is it will be a mostly fine day tomorrow 🤣🤣
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:59 pm

Been raining steadily here since about 6pm. 5mm in the gauge. Looks like a wet night and for most of tomorrow. A closed low is developing back near the SA border and will cross the coast somewhere just south of Geelong tomorrow morning then passing just south of the Bay Heads. Expecting around 30mm here now, and over 50mm about the northeast. Will put us pretty close to the monthly average. Could be a period of blustery heavy showers through central on the backside of the low with a weak wrap around early arvo.

Odd rumble but all embed stuff. I’m not expecting much around Melbourne, but might get a spark.
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mick
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:16 pm

HaHa well I hope all is well with you all in Vic. Some storms coming.

Since I moved to mid north SA, we have had more rain than when I was in Melb. Then I went to 90 mile beach and nearly died of Dehydration.
2 Weeks ago we had snow, lovely snow of the type the Macedonians post, I was so excited I made Karl of the old days look tame.

Main camera, flat battery, phone flat battery, back up cam, card wouldnt work. So I didnt capture much to see until after daylight, but to the naked eye 3am to 8 am was superb.

First time Ive held falling snow in my hand. Sorry for late report and wrong topic. Leave pass requested.
IMG_0039 [1280x768].JPG
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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:04 pm

mick wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:16 pm
HaHa well I hope all is well with you all in Vic. Some storms coming.

Since I moved to mid north SA, we have had more rain than when I was in Melb. Then I went to 90 mile beach and nearly died of Dehydration.
2 Weeks ago we had snow, lovely snow of the type the Macedonians post, I was so excited I made Karl of the old days look tame.

Main camera, flat battery, phone flat battery, back up cam, card wouldnt work. So I didnt capture much to see until after daylight, but to the naked eye 3am to 8 am was superb.

First time Ive held falling snow in my hand. Sorry for late report and wrong topic. Leave pass requested.IMG_0039 [1280x768].JPG
That’s a great photo. Which spot exactly? Higher parts of the mid north in SA used to have a climate more more like central highlands of Victoria with pretty frequent snowfalls, but they’ve become a fair bit rare. Some cracking historical photos from those parts. Snow in a dry landscape always looks special.

Just closing in on 7mm here. Becoming quite humid out there with a northeasterly flow kicking in. Our DP up to 12C with mist and fog.
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hillybilly
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:01 am

17mm in the gauge this morning. Getting heavy showers and the trough still sits about 100-150km to the west (moving up on Geelong) so some more to come. Out MTD has just cracked 100mm, so tracking nicely :D Need 25mm to get to average.

Really humid out there, with DPs in the teens. Shame that the trough ain’t moving through at 3pm. It is quite unstable tucked in just ahead of the trough so expect showers to pop up and become more widespread for those areas just ahead of it. Has to be a chance for the odd rumble.
StratoBendigo
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:53 am

Raining here at present. Had about 15mm all up so far. So we've basically reached our Monthly average (52mm MTD).

Swan Hill has had 20mm, although they would've preferred that a few weeks ago.

Looks like more rain next Friday. Getting rather repetitive tbh.
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hillybilly
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Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:12 am

Just cracked 20mm. Local AWS missed a few heavy showers which scored the southern Dandenongs in a pattern which often plays out in unstable NWly flow. Cluster of 20-25mm on the local private weather station network out here :D

Convection trying to fire between Geelong and Melbourne.

Next Friday looks like a ripper, then a cold wet long weekend. Glad it’s not gonna be warm and sunny with Melbournians still housebound :( So need a trip to the coast....
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