Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:16 am

Warm day coming up. Showers and rain later, and some rumbles east of about Melbourne. Trough moves through the city about 3pm, when it will lean back to about Ballarat. Good timing for storms.
James
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:02 am

stevco123 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:56 am
James wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:55 pm
I hope there is actual storms this time - we seem to keep predicting them but nothing happens, whats different tomorrow that its more likely than the last weeks/month where they always failed?
The best way to approach storm forecasts is to simply ignore them and not get excited, especially in winter. So many things need to come together for a storm to develop, and then you have to be lucky enough to be in its path.

For Melbourne in particular, there rarely seems to be a trigger, no matter what the indicators show.

If i took a tally of the number of forecast for possible storms vs actual for the year, the ratio would probably be 1:50
exactly my experience so I wondered why, based on the evidence its always predicted so confidently when the ratio of times it actually happens is low - so I was trying to understand what makes the forecaster each time feel this one is different, what dynamics are at play. Its nice when we can all forecast but I like to know the reasons why its made, and when it doesn't happen, what those possible reasons were
stevco123
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:05 am

It's a risk thing. They'd rather forecast storms and not have them happen, rather than not predict them and then have massive damage from an an "unexpected" storm.

That's understandable, which is why they put the term "possible" in front of "storms".
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Wilko
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:22 am

Any chance of the sun poking out from this mid level cloud ?
I’m desperate for some storm action 8-)
WeatherViewer
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:26 pm

Wilko wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:22 am
Any chance of the sun poking out from this mid level cloud ?
I’m desperate for some storm action 8-)
I'm not liking the chances of any sun poking out, cloud looks pretty thick on the satellite image. I'm happy to be surprised though :P
Sean
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:58 pm

Doesn’t look that great at all (never usually is when there’s heavy cloud).
James
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:29 pm

looks like nothing much is going to happen here today - once again
WeatherViewer
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:36 pm

James wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:29 pm
looks like nothing much is going to happen here today - once again
Just planted in my new garden over the weekend, good thing I watered this morning.
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:13 pm

Change is through here and Temp has dropped from just over 20c to 14.4c now - 4.10pm
Have only been a few spots of Rain and Looking at The Radar it doesn't look like much will
fall, today anyway maybe 1 or 2mm's at best. Hope Saturday delivers more.
James
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:30 pm

at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to!
Blackie
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:38 pm

Had a few rumbles and some moderate rain now. Nice! looking forward to more throughout the evening. Saturday looking good for heavier rain and a resumption of riverine flooding up this way.
Sean
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:53 pm

James wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:30 pm
at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to!
Storms are like meringues... very finickity. If one ingredient/condition isn't right, fail.

GFS did a good job of confining them to the hills/nsw border. EC way overstated their proximity to the city.

BOM was right in progging "possible storms" as the ensemble was not unanimous. Timing is everything really.

Southern vic has been unlucky lately as high pressure in the bite has been keeping troughs just shy of the city, hence most of the storms have been north of the range.

Hopefully our luck changes :(
weathergasm
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:02 pm

James wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:30 pm
at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to!
Complaining doesn’t change anything either. Melbourne has a temperate oceanic climate pretty far removed from the tropical moisture which fuels thunderstorms. This means a lot of things need to line up pretty precisely for a ‘chance of a thunderstorm’ in the forecast to turn into an actual thunderstorm. If you want reliable storms, move to Darwin👌

The Melbourne metropolitan area gets maybe five or six good thunderstorm days a year (ie, more than just a thundery shower over the foothills or an occasionally rumbling rainband). If we’re really lucky in a particular year and all the climate drivers line up, maybe double that. And bear in mind that even on the very good days where there’s multiple black-cored cells all over the radar not EVERYWHERE in Melbourne is going to get affected, both due to the localised nature of thunderstorms and Melbourne’s climatology. If you’re east or north of the city, your chances are better than if you’re in the south or west. Once you understand and accept this, you’ll be a happier person.

Good storms are not common here, which is part of what makes the active days so special and worth waiting for.
Last edited by weathergasm on Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
James
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:16 pm

my point was more that everyone on here gets excited predicting storms/weather that never eventuates, looking at models saying there are (that's pretty much what keeps this page going)

But in reality it almost never delivers what it says, also if I cant complain, I wont post anymore...its part of it!
weathergasm
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:26 pm

James wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:16 pm
my point was more that everyone on here gets excited predicting storms/weather that never eventuates, looking at models saying there are (that's pretty much what keeps this page going)
Okay, but you have to consider that in the context of Melbourne’s actual climate. If storms happened every time the models said there was a chance, Melbourne’s climate would probably be closer to Sydney’s or Brisbane’s.

Like others have said, don’t get your hopes up unnecessarily. A chance is just that, a chance.
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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:32 pm

James wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:16 pm
my point was more that everyone on here gets excited predicting storms/weather that never eventuates, looking at models saying there are (that's pretty much what keeps this page going)

But in reality it almost never delivers what it says, also if I cant complain, I wont post anymore...its part of it!
Today was never a big storm day. The change came in ahead of the moisture. Our chance was always in a pretty narrow window. We had a couple of thundery looking showers here, but not to be.

Saturday also looks pretty marginal. Too much muck and murk with a deep saturated airmass. Could get lucky with a break in the cloud, but more likely widespread showers tending to rain.

Rained briefly quite heavy here, but over too quick. Might get to 5mm, and currently just shy of 4. Better to my southeast.

Could be the odd thundery shower in the north tomorrow, ahead of the rainband.
Skywalker
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:57 pm

Ho hum, another fizzer. :(

Moving along.....
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Dane
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:35 pm

Fizzed is right had less than 1mm here
Wilko
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:01 pm

1mm here as expected
Saturday expecting 10-20mm
Models have been playing around with a massive system this time next week :o
WeatherViewer
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Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:44 am

Quite heavy drizzle has set in here in Truganina over the last 10 minutes.
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