Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

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Didjman
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Sun Oct 11, 2020 7:01 am

Have been watching the models for a few days now. They seem to be starting to fall into line. Another low is forecast to form to the north and track south over Vic before cutting off. Could be another state-wide event, hopefully with storms this time.
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hillybilly
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Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:10 am

Progs this morning are looking good :D Bit of bouncing around, so details haven’t stuck, but pattern looks wet.

Perhaps light showers Tuesday, then showers and storms from Wednesday onwards. Late Thursday into Friday looks thundery, then a rainy weekend.

Could be a repeat the week after :D
StratoBendigo
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Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:12 am

Currently looking at around a possible 15-25mm this coming weekend. We had some stream rises in local rivers last week. i.e. Lake Eppalock has gone from 42 to just under 46%.

There is a swamp between Maldon and Laanecoorie (Bell's Swamp) which I often use as an indicator of whether we have had a wet year. Yesterday it was still empty, although a few puddles were apparent. It last had water in it in Spring 2016.

Update - 18Z GFS raises eyebrows....
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Didjman
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Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:29 am

There is some mid level instability to my SW. Even mammatus! On satpic there is a line from King Island to Swan Hill.
Hawker
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Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:53 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:12 am
Currently looking at around a possible 15-25mm this coming weekend. We had some stream rises in local rivers last week. i.e. Lake Eppalock has gone from 42 to just under 46%.

There is a swamp between Maldon and Laanecoorie (Bell's Swamp) which I often use as an indicator of whether we have had a wet year. Yesterday it was still empty, although a few puddles were apparent. It last had water in it in Spring 2016.

Update - 18Z GFS raises eyebrows....
Yes there was some nice stream flows but more needed.
Needs a pretty wet period to get good water in there, maybe.....
Have you got a link for the gfs chart?
StratoBendigo
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Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:22 pm

Hawker wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:53 am
StratoBendigo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:12 am
Currently looking at around a possible 15-25mm this coming weekend. We had some stream rises in local rivers last week. i.e. Lake Eppalock has gone from 42 to just under 46%.

There is a swamp between Maldon and Laanecoorie (Bell's Swamp) which I often use as an indicator of whether we have had a wet year. Yesterday it was still empty, although a few puddles were apparent. It last had water in it in Spring 2016.

Update - 18Z GFS raises eyebrows....
Yes there was some nice stream flows but more needed.
Needs a pretty wet period to get good water in there, maybe.....
Have you got a link for the gfs chart?
This is the lo-fi version: http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html

Hi-Fi version is best navigated via: https://weather.us/ and using the drop down menus for "accumulated rainfall" with ad blocker off.
Sean
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Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:24 pm

The next 10 days look pretty dynamic and promising, with the models teasing us with thunderstorm activity (EC going for severe storms on Thur).

I wouldn't pencil anything in your diary though :)
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hillybilly
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Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:17 am

Fog and drizzle here this morning. Will clear about noon and then winds go easterly then northeasterly.

Liking the looks of the progs. Odd shower Wednesday, and widespread showers and storms Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The precip water values are excellent, peaking in the 35-40mm range.
StratoBendigo
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Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:05 am

It already feels humid here. I'm thinking 25-40mm this weekend...
Skywalker
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Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:48 am

Sean wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:24 pm
I wouldn't pencil anything in your diary though
Well said. ;)

Tried very hard to drizzle here this morning, otherwise it was perfect conditions for the walk with the dog.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
snowfall
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Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:51 am

Fog and drizzle here this morning with 1mm. Still drizzling lightly but I expect it to clear soon. Back to cold though (for now) - currently 10c.

Models are looking good for the coming week, though still jumping around a fair bit.
Hawker
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:54 am

Looks to be a bit iffy for the next few days
going to need a bit of luck.
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:22 am

Foggy start to Wednesday. Should see the odd shower and storm in the northwest today. Otherwise a warm humid mostly sunny day.

Thursday looks stormy.
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Didjman
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:06 pm

Have ACCAS here. 24.3/9.1c atm.
stevco123
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:00 pm

A few spits and spats down here
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:14 pm

Looked like we were going to get a thunderY shower then it evaporated :o Few decent storms in the Mallee, but otherwise most of it is elevated and probably mostly virga.

Tomorrow looks good. Showers and storms, particularly central and east. Could see local 10-25mm for areas (about) east of the city. Saturday is a repeat spreading to rain as a low traverses the state.

Next week throws up another wet trough :D Gotta love a La Niña spring. Hoping it keeps coming :D
QldTwister
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:28 pm

Nice to see storms in the Mallee today another sign that spring is well and turely here
Great day out there, loving the warmth, the sun and longer days, nice skies this evening too.

Yeah intresting day tomorrow and the next few days active, wet, stromy and humid. :D :D :D :D

The E and NE should do very well next 4 days with many seeing up to 50mm by Sunday night.

Thursday a band of showers and thunderstorms moving across the south during the afternoon with the trough as it moves east, becoming thicker and heavy at night in spots. Rain band will follow with the cold front but only light falls, wetter east of the city and in hills.

Friday clearing and mostly sunny in the south, with showers and possible storms about the Murray, increasing rapidly over night and spreading south across the state during the day Saturday. Rain will be heavy about central and eastern areas particailuy the NE, im sure a number of rivers will go back into flood.

Sunday cold Slys and showers in the south clearing in the north

Early next week nice and sunny the maybe a BIG event for much of Aus late next week :D :D

Agree HB love a La Nina shame only every 10 years lol
Bring on the heat and stroms
James
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:55 pm

I hope there is actual storms this time - we seem to keep predicting them but nothing happens, whats different tomorrow that its more likely than the last weeks/month where they always failed?
Sean
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Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:53 pm

EC holding firm re storms from about 2pm onwards in metros areas (north and east appear to do best, with a slim chance down here).

GFS having none of it. Instead showing a weak rain band passing through with a few sparks about the mountains.

Guess we'll see.
stevco123
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Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:56 am

James wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:55 pm
I hope there is actual storms this time - we seem to keep predicting them but nothing happens, whats different tomorrow that its more likely than the last weeks/month where they always failed?
The best way to approach storm forecasts is to simply ignore them and not get excited, especially in winter. So many things need to come together for a storm to develop, and then you have to be lucky enough to be in its path.

For Melbourne in particular, there rarely seems to be a trigger, no matter what the indicators show.

If i took a tally of the number of forecast for possible storms vs actual for the year, the ratio would probably be 1:50
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