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Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

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StratoBendigo
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just had a short shower of rain. Evaporated as quickly as it fell. Humid now.

Not expecting much tonight (5mm at most), but Wednesday to Friday looks like it might deliver.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by hillybilly »

Lots of little cells been popping up but managed to miss them all so far. Should get some rain overnight, though not expecting a lot here. Perhaps 10-15mm. Starting to dry out. Been a pretty ordinary 5 weeks with only about half of what is normal here, which has seen us go from sodden to drying quickly. Hope mid week gives us a boost.

Mid week is looking good, though the exact track of the low will matter a lot. Further west and it will focus in SA again, further east and it will be very good for Vic. EC currently has it tracking though about Colac headed to Bass Strait.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by snowfall »

Thick fog here currently, which rolled in with the wind change. Had a few showers, but they’re brief so have only amounted to 0.6mm so far. Really hoping we get some luck later in the week - I was in the garden today and was quite amazed how dry the soil is now.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by QldTwister »

Such a nice warm weekend, wasnt it great :D :D :D :D
Was out side when the change hit 28c to 17c real quick, now 14c and will stay that or lower for the next 36 hours or so.

Lots of rain in SA today, widespread 20-40mm falls, very welcome im sure, but also think many farmers would have loved it back in July, August not now but still a great soaking rain for many with a big follow up for many mid week.

Rain creeping into Western Vic with hopefully most getting 5-15mm in the next 36 hours then most of us getting another 20 to 50mm mid week.
The mid week low is looking very impresive and will move right through us Wednesday and Thursday with Heavy rain and Thunderstorms for most

Most of Vic should have 20-50mm by Friday :D :D

Watch for tomorrows rainband to stall in the NE till Wedesday could be isol 100mm in the NE for the week.
Also watch for a heavy band of thunderstorms to form with the midwek low somewhere over Vic, were they do form will get 30-50mm in couple hours very heavy rain.

Flood watches will likelly be issued for parts of Vic and minor to moderate flooding is also possible in some parts

Big week of weather im excited enjoy the rain tomorrow morning :D
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by dazrain »

Rain starting to thicken up on the radar and slowly moving into metro Melbourne.

I’m in the CBD now for work and light but steady rain is falling.

Fingers crossed the main trough holds together. Should be wet until at least late morning
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by StratoBendigo »

It is taking its time to get here. Nothing registered in the gauge yet. I think today is a fail here. Nice to see the Wimmera do OK though.

But I'm much more optimistic for later in the week. 25-60mm is on the cards from what I'm seeing.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by hillybilly »

Radar looks good, though fading a bit so who know. Thinking we should still see 10mm plus here, and somewhat hopeful of 20mm. 4mm so far, with thick fog and cold gusty southerlies.

Mid week is looking very wet. Could well bring concerning heavy falls on the northern slopes. Looks like a months worth of rain in a day type low :o

EDIT> just started pouring here. Torrential thundery drops.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Skywalker »

Nice steady rain falling here, probably looking at 10-15mm by the time it finishes so a really good start to the week. Even managed to get the lawn cut yesterday just before it started. :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Tassiedave »

Rain last 24 hrs: Moogara 64mm, Hobart 38mm, Strahan 31mm, Sheffield 27mm, Ross 25mm, Swansea 16mm, Launceston 14mm
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by hillybilly »

Nice rainy morning. Closing in on 15mm with the back end of the rainband approaching. Will give Part A a "bare pass". Not the ~50mm the progs were suggesting, but ok provided part B delivers.

Bit of a fizzer north of the divide. Was thinking the western third of Vic would all do pretty well, but managed to slip under the northern bit.

Some bumper falls back in SA an Tasmania.

BTW couple of numbers to watch. The city needs 3mm to reach the 1961-1990 annual average and 12mm to reach the all years annual average (starting at 9am today). Not too many years have got there since 1997 :? Hopefully this is our new normal ;)
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Didjman »

Just coming up on 6mm here as the sky is rapidly brightening. Hoping for chase weather Weds / Thurs!
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by 3030WX »

9.5 mm at Truganina.
Current weather at Truganina

Don't knock the weather. If it didn't change once in a while, nine out of ten people couldn't start a conversation. - Kin Hubbard
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by StratoBendigo »

Rain has stopped. We got 2mm.

Mid-week has all the ingredients for something big.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Hawker »

StratoBendigo wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:37 am Rain has stopped. We got 2mm.

Mid-week has all the ingredients for something big.
EC has a total of about 70 here and bom access going for about 40 to 50.
Will be very interesting to see it evolve from now.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Adam38 »

15mm here overnight, woke up to loud thunder around 3am this morning.
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hillybilly
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by hillybilly »

Finished on 16mm. Not too bad. Foggy and drizzle so might scrape a mm or two more. Cold - nearly 20C colder than what it was this time here yesterday :o
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Dane »

14.5mm's up to 9am this morning. Nothing since 9am.
A lot colder today just 8.3c on my PWS at 12.23pm.
Hoping for more Rain later in the Week.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by snowfall »

15.6mm in total here. Suddenly felt cold after the heat of the past few days. Currently 7.5c and cloudy.
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Wilko »

Hawker wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:13 am
StratoBendigo wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:37 am Rain has stopped. We got 2mm.

Mid-week has all the ingredients for something big.
EC has a total of about 70 here and bom access going for about 40 to 50.
Will be very interesting to see it evolve from now.
Yep all models now in broad agreement
Rainfall range 40-70 for Central areas
Precipitation warnings for rivers are now expected :o
How things can suddenly turn with La Niña on our doorstep
15mm o night with half the Mallee dust
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Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

Post by Gordon »

13mm here. Good to see a spread of decent to half-decent falls.

Hopefully any of those who came in on the low side a bit to the north, will more than catch up with round 2.
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