Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

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hillybilly
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Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:12 pm

Thread for the coming system. A warm few days coming up, followed by a deep tropical infeed ahead of a slow moving surface and upper trough. Could be a substantial rain event with Progs showing locally more than 100mm.

Still a few days out so might build or fade in the progs.
QldTwister
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Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:04 pm

Yeah EC is very keen for this event, but looking much like the thin rain band we had a couple weeks ago in Southern Vic very sharp cut off both north and south side of rain band and thin
But HUGE falls under it 40-60mm with isol fall closer to 80 to 100mm and much of that in SA and Tas and SW Vic again, a place that prob dont need that rain after the last few weeks

Intresting times and intresting model waltz over the coming days too watch

BIG 6 months ahead IM EXCITED
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:46 am

Mini event which I guess can be counted under this thread ;) Woke to moderate rain, with nearly a mm in the gauge. This is a three part day with morning light rain, clearing then showers and possibly the odd rumble on the trough this arvo. Could well locally crack 10-20mm, but mostly 1-5mm.

Progs are messy for the weekend but lots of potential. Could guess close to 30C on Saturday around Melbourne depending on cloud cover.

EDIT> Up to 4mm in the gauge. Was expecting maybe a mm or so for the first bit, so nice to get more. September finished just shy of 80mm, but 40mm below average :(
StratoBendigo
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:14 am

5mm so far here. Still raining.

Next week might have two distinct rain events. The first on Sunday-Monday (more a SW Vic event), and then a big follow up on Wednesday-Thursday.
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hillybilly
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:11 pm

Satellite image is starting to look convective west of Melbourne with radar agreeing. Must be close to throwing out some sparks.

There is a nice area of convergence between warm/mid N/NE flow cool W flow. Trough is sitting a bit west of Ballarat. Would put it central mid/late arvo.
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Supercellimpact
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:44 pm

Looks to be a storm line forming out west. Heading straight for here.
BERVY
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:17 pm

Is actually raining atm in Wodonga but nothing showing on the Yarrawonga radar.

I’m guessing it’s down but you usually get the “images are not available” message when it is.

Anyone see anything about it anywhere?
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hillybilly
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:16 pm

Quite heavy rain here atm. Big drops. Feels thundery though no audible thunder. Almost 4mm so far to add to the 4mm earlier. Has been a few sparks to our south and west.

Weekends system still looking good, perhaps even a bit better overall.

EDIT> just got a couple of rumbles. Hopefully a scene setter for the rest of the month :D
Sean
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:41 pm

Just had some heavy downpours, 5mm so far.

GFS and EC in much better agreement tonight, but with a definite focus around the southwest (before it then sweeps the state).

Looking very heavy on the range.
stevco123
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:45 pm

1mm this morning, 7mm tonight.

Round 2 about to hit. A bit more than I expected to be honest.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
QldTwister
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Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:38 pm

One Big flash ad rumble was great to hear miss that October tomorrow best 6 months of the year about to begin YAY :D :D :D :D
Nice 5 to 8mm for east side of city

Next 3 days are looking great WARM and Sunny drying things out around the place and helping things grow NW be hot 35c shock to system up there.

Next week still all over the place the second system gone on the 00z run but sure back tomorrow looking VERY WET in SA, Tas and SW Vic should do well too Looks to be another thin long duration rain band with sharp cut offs east and west of it

Intresting first week of weather for Oct
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:46 am

Just shy of 8mm yesterday arvo, plus 4mm earlier. Nice in between event. Had about five audible rumbles.

Nice few days ahead. Going to get almost hot on the weekend, with high 20s creeping into central. Mid 30s northwest.

System for weekend looking solid. Thunderies go up on Sunday ahead of a broad rainband. Looks like general 15-50mm based on current Progs, but wiggling up and down so potential to get better or worse.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:10 am

8mm all up this week. Our YTD is closing in on the annual average, thanks mainly to the 200+ mm in April. Sept was close to average for rainfall in the end.

Next week looks a bit messy. Everything from 10 to 60mm is being bandied around...

Winter crop forecast is positive. It's really only the Northern Mallee that hasn't done that great this year in Vic.
Gordon
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:06 pm

6.5mm in the gauge to start October.
StratoBendigo wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:10 am
Next week looks a bit messy. Everything from 10 to 60mm is being bandied around...
Have to say, I don't trust the models for this period one bit - not for detail anyway. Some sort of consistency around Sunday's trough/rainband, but beyond that, it's chaos. EC has had 50mm falls for us appear, vanish, move a few days... ACCESS & GFS not much better.

Welcome to La Nina I guess!
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Didjman
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:44 pm

Am I missing something? On Sunday we have warmth, moisture and a trigger - yet no fcast or mention of storms yet? Are the uppers going to be warm?
Hawker
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Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:59 pm

Didjman wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:44 pm
Am I missing something? On Sunday we have warmth, moisture and a trigger - yet no fcast or mention of storms yet? Are the uppers going to be warm?
I think that's correct, from my novice reading of the charts, the upper parts
of this system stalls out to the west of us. The upper system splits, An upper
low then develops over eastern WA, then moves through middlish next
week to the south west of vic to give the next system.
Others please correct.
Edit, that is of current charts, probably change.
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hillybilly
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Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:25 am

Didjman wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:44 pm
Am I missing something? On Sunday we have warmth, moisture and a trigger - yet no fcast or mention of storms yet? Are the uppers going to be warm?
EC meteogram is showing storms. Main system will be a rainband behind the surface change, but it does look like central/north central and east should see some thunderies. The low level moisture isn’t great around 1-2km so they will be quite elevated.

Progs tending to split the system now. First part peaks west on Sunday/Monday then second part comes down from the north on Wednesday.

Warm few days. Could well see the first 30s around Melbourne next few days.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:22 am

Even more divergence today in the models. 10 or 100mm next week, and everything in between...

Hay fever is stuffing me around atm. Plane trains uggggh.
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Didjman
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Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:05 am

Wind up to 53klm here so far.
snowfall
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Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:07 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:22 am
Even more divergence today in the models. 10 or 100mm next week, and everything in between...
Yeah, I noticed GEM in particular has been very bullish on rainfall totals. EC and GFS are a little more consistent, both projecting around 40-60mm in your area by the end of the week and similar here. ACCESS seems to be the odd one out at the moment. But models will no doubt go through more chopping and changing. Sunday/Monday is fairly consistent between EC and GFS in the latest runs, while UKMO is projecting somewhat less rainfall overall. The highest totals will be in southern areas for this part as the airflow swings south/south-westerly, but a different story later in the week.

Very windy here today and overnight, generally gusting around 30-40 km/h. Shame - it was so pleasant outside yesterday! Temp is creeping up as well - currently 17c.
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