Inland Trough & Tropical Infeed - 17th - 21st Sept

[Didjman]

Here is something to set the mood:



Compilation of my best slomo lightning spanning 12 years.

[StratoBendigo]

All the forecast models now have it as a very mediocre 5-15 mm system for here. Just can't take a trick this month....

Looks good for you to me? BOM forecasting 15-30mm Saturday alone, with 'possible heavy falls' in the Bendigo forecast?

Very dynamic system so who knows what the eventual outcome will be, but right now Bendigo looks better off than us!

True. But GFS nailed last weekend's rain forecast and it can't see more than 10mm here over the next week. EC is more optimistic, but it keeps gradually backing off totals too...

[hillybilly]

Progs been backing off and are really messy. Not convinced for southern Vic now. Looks like we might score 10-20mm if lucky.

Better in the north but patchy. Big storms on Saturday further north, but tending to fade as they drift south.

Lots of days with showers and the odd storm so might get lucky.

[StratoBendigo]

This weekend looks "meh" except in Mildura and Robinvale.

Sept 24-25 has some promise though.

[Didjman]

I will check the Gridpoint temp / wind and SigWx charts first thing tomorrow morning (and lunch time) to gauge storm likelihood.

http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/charts/g ... forecasts/

http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/charts/sigwx/#

[QldTwister]

Nice little warm front moving through Vic atm very cool showers cloudly on cool side in the south, warm sunny tad humid north of front and more unstable
Warm in the north and cooler in the south though should move through all of us tonight to a warm and humid day tomorrow.

Looking great in the NW tomorrow for heavy rain and thunderstorms liklely severe with very heavy rain and damaging winds, hail also possible.
Hopefully not to much rain to wash away/ damage crops but good soaking for most up there.
Most of state should see some light to moderate rain and stroms espically in the north but hit and miss south of ranges.
You will do well on and north of ranges tonight and tomorrow Bendgio already had few mms sure u get another 10-20 tomorrow

Clearing Sunday then redeveloping from the west Sunday night into Monday with another band of rain and storms another 5 to 15mm for most more in E NE
Showers and windy Tues to Thursday mostly south and mount areas another 5 to 15mm
So most should see 15-30mm for the week with the NW, NE and wetter spots in south closer to 25 to 50mm for week.

Active weather rolls on, good week of weather watching ahead all of us will get good rain.

Looking to warm humid sunshine this weekend locally

[Didjman]

At the moment only the tropical jet is active across the top half of the country. So any any rain/storms will be slow moving over Vic. The Melbourne 2300Z sounding shows the atmosphere is moist at all levels up to around 24000 ft.

[snowfall]

0.6mm here today from some light rain this afternoon. Shame it’s not quite the system it was predicted to be earlier in the week. It’s going to be quite unpredictable over the weekend - some spots with nothing and some luckier.

[hillybilly]

Picked up a trace yesterday so dragged us up to 1.trace mm

Warm weekend here and not much in the way of weather. Seems Melbourne is destined to have a cr*ppy cr*ppy spring we should see a bit of action on Monday.

Much better as you go north and west. Btw some remarkable falls clocking up in outback SA, NSW and Queensland.

Going to be quite a few records for the time of year. Feels like the first big La Niña event. Marree in SA has just clocked 93mm since 9am which is 50% more than their wettest spring month on record Going to be some strong flow into Lake Eyre. Marree is quite possibly the driest site open in Australia atm, with that 93mm not far from their annual average.

[StratoBendigo]

I'm only expecting 5-10mm between now and Tuesday. And interest in rain later in the week has also faded. We're likely to get less than half our normal September rainfall this year, maybe even only a third of normal.

[WeatherViewer]

Out for a late night walk and geee it's beautiful and balmy!

[StratoBendigo]

A couple of very short and sharp rain showers this evening. Nothing at AWS yet....

[snowfall]

Patchy light showers on the radar but tending to fade south of the divide. Warm one here today with a max of 21c and a very mild night las night with a min of just 14c. Currently 16.9c. Good to see some rain in northern areas, but it’s mostly light falls so far.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Didjman some big bolts there.. powerful stuff.

Doppler was navy and red around 1am, but the wind chimes didn't sing here. no complaints.

[hillybilly]

Upside has faded on the first low so most the rain today is topographical on the northern slopes as a very moist airmass is dragged up the dividing range. Will add up in favourable spots like Mt Buller, Kilmore, Kinglake but elsewhere not a lot in it. We’ve had a bit spill through the Yarra Valley here with 0.4mm in the gauge. While it is very humid in the low levels there is a subsidence inversion at about 2-3km so no chance of storms today.

The big low in the bight will now become the dominant system and now throws a series of troughs over us. Next one moves through tomorrow morning and will have a band of showers and storms. Could well be locally 10-20mm, but probably a bit hit and miss, then Tuesday brings a repeat. The system is then with us to about Monday in a week, so should add up. Given it is the one system perhaps we just expand the dates on the thread?

Btw some remarkable rain to our north. In many spots the best since 2016. Here’s some photos from outback SA where Marree scored eight times more rain in a day than the whole of 2019





https://www.facebook.com/littleeyeinthe ... _LGjQlcVDA

[StratoBendigo]

7mm overnight. It's something.

This Friday appears to have potential with a strong and snowy cold front. Maybe 20mm in it?

Date range extended.

[Didjman]

4mm here overnight

[snowfall]

A very modest 0.4mm here overnight. Very windy at times as well.

[Hawker]

6.5 here about what was modelled, hope for no more today
need to do some mowing

[Gordon]

1 mm here to add to 1.5mm. A lot of atmospheric moisture for not much rain