Warm with a rainband: Sept 12-13

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hillybilly
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Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:20 am

Thread for this coming weekend which might give us our first proper rain event in a while. Warming up as the week goes on, with a trough approaching on Saturday. Looks like a decent tropical connection with rain widespread. The system will tend to slide southeast so heaviest falls will align northwest to southeast. Bit of uncertainty, but currently looks like falls could locally top 40mm in east central, with 10-25mm widespread.
StratoBendigo
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Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:58 am

Still a lot of divergence in the model outputs. We could get 5mm. Or 25mm.... And I completely ignore Access-G these days since it seems to have caught a bug. Or fallen apart with a lack of aircraft data.
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hillybilly
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Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:58 am

Models coming into bit better agreement. Band looks like focussing from about the Wimmera to Gippsland. Most spot do pretty well, though a tweak north or south could see totals fall away. Expecting about 30mm here. We do need to jump start September which is looking pretty ordinary.
StratoBendigo
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Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:00 am

Yep, definitely an upgrade. In with a good chance of 15-25mm here.

Also some indications of a tropical incursion in a week's time....
snowfall
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Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:32 pm

The models are becoming more consistent. All are showing a solid rain band, but there is still some disagreement about its placement. It’s a fine line between 30mm and less than 10mm, with the band further north or south depending on the model. The latest run from EC has shifted it further north to be primarily a northern Victorian event while GFS has the greatest focus in the south and UKMO right through the middle. Any could change in the next runs, so will see how it’s looking tomorrow.

A sunny, calm spring day here today with a max of 17c. A perfect temperature for being out in the sun, but unfortunately I was working inside all day!
StratoBendigo
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Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:43 pm

Yep, looks quite promising for the weekend here. EC is the one I like - 25mm on Saturday.

And the follow up system next week also has potential. A wet end to Sept is on the cards I suspect.
stevco123
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Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:17 pm

My tip is 30 to 70mm. The last La Nina nearly always amplified the totals compared to what the models forecast
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Sean
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Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:05 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:17 pm
My tip is 30 to 70mm. The last La Nina nearly always amplified the totals compared to what the models forecast
Not sure about the higher end, but GFS has a burst of heavy rain brushing the metro around the early afternoon on Sat. EC not looking as promising, but has this thing stretching from WA to NZ just about.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:44 am

Winds picked up a little here,
Drying it out a little more back to hard clay..
hope this rain arrives and it's gentle soaking..
Makes for onion weed removal a little easier..
10 to 30 and 20 to 40. Either will do..
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Didjman
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Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:32 am

Wind is gusting to 50klm here and no wind warnings??
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hillybilly
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Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:41 am

Last warm one for a while today, but a bit of wind making it less than idea. Nice rainy Saturday into Sunday. Progs have stuck pretty well. Thinking 20-50mm here. We really do need it as September’s total is looking very sad atm.

Another big system for next week. Finally feels like the La Niña is cranking. Latest obs are showing weak to moderate La Niña setting in. Given the world is so hot atm, the SSTs are way warmer than average almost everywhere so the Nino values around -0.8 are probably more like -1 to -1.5C from the past. Latest outlook show very wet conditions heading into summer, so hopefully the first of many big wet and thundery systems.

Btw bunch of heat records over Southern WA ahead of the incoming front. 40C right down to the Bight :o Far too early in the month to be seeing records.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:20 am

Most forecast models this morning have the rainband further South. We might miss out, sadly.
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hillybilly
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Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:48 pm

Progs looking good. Mallee and east Gippsland look like struggling but elsewhere ok falls becoming heavy in the Southwest into Central and the Northeast. EC has about 40mm for us in FC. Hoping that comes off with our MTD running about 50mm below where we should be for mid month.

Few thundery showers tonight, with rain building tomorrow. Heavy this time tomorrow evening.
StratoBendigo
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Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:30 pm

Looks more like 10mm here at this stage. We need more than that...
QldTwister
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Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:39 pm

Big fire hose of moisture directed right at Vic and particully Melbourne tomorrow, could see some of the biggest totals E and NE of Melbourne and in the hills 30-50mm easy.

Everyone in Melbourne looking for rain will be happy 20mm in west burbs, 40mm in the east and most will sit in between.
Watch out for the bounce zone though, NW surbs might only get light falls due to fresh N to NW winds.

As mentioned Mallee and East Gippsland miss out, little if any for those locations.
Northern Mallee could really do with a drink after the dry, warm and windy weather over the last few weeks, 20mm there would really set the crops up for a great year, hopefully late next week delivers up there.
Along and south of the Murray will see little if any rain with this :(

South of a line Ouyen to Echuca to Mount Buller should get a nice soaking 10 to 25mm over the next 36 hours.

Falls in the Wimmera, Central ranges, Melbourne and east of Melbourne possibly into parts of West and South Gippy lookig at widespread 20-40mm a real soaking rain with heaiver bursts too, would not be surprised to see 50 or 60mm in spots. WET :D
This will just prime the soils, creeks, dams further for flooding over the coming months :D :D

I wouldnt say La Nina is cranking just yet once start getting that richer moistrure inland like Dps in the 15c+ into western parts of Qld and NSW, long Ely fetchs and deep Elys on the east coast ad highs mosrly south of Aus then its a Go. Oct to Dec should be good fun :D
Def a big exciting 6 to 9 months of weather ahead EXCITED

WET WET WET for many of us tomorrow enjoy it
Expect around 30mm+ here
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:42 am

I was expecting to see wet ground, only a few spots so far,
That big colourful blob has missed us slipping to the south..
ready for it now, garden is going to love 20mm
StratoBendigo
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Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:14 am

We will be lucky to get 5mm today. Very disappointing.
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hillybilly
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Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:06 am

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:42 am
I was expecting to see wet ground, only a few spots so far,
That big colourful blob has missed us slipping to the south..
ready for it now, garden is going to love 20mm
Never gonna start proper to mid morning. Going exactly as planned. Should seem 25-50mm out our way :D

EDIT> Rain moving in nicely now, and 2mm in my gauge. Echoes seem higher than fall rates. Not sure if this is bright banding or dry slots evaporating the rain. Looks like a rainy rainy day :D
Wilko
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Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:55 am

That radar looks beautiful
Expecting 30mm easily today
Good indoors type of day with La Niña on our doorstep
Lara_Hunter
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Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:06 am

Beautiful morning here in Lara working from home and looking out the window as the gutters flow hard. We're up to 13mm so very happy the lawns and veggie garden will enjoy the drink.
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