Windy with a late change: September 2-7

[hillybilly]

Bit of an inbetween system as we wait for a proper spring front. Windy mild day ahead with a later showery change. Might pick up a few mms if lucky.

This pattern repeats every few days for the next week and a bit.

[Skywalker]

Yet another horrid day of windy filth!
Had to spend some time out in the garden last night re-staking some shrubs/trees which have been pushed over by this constant rubbish.

[Gordon]

On the unpleasant subject of wind, are any of our experts (hillybilly?) able to explain the discrepancy between wind speeds in the regular forecast, and those in a SWW for damaging winds? I often find the average wind speed in the warning is much higher - and that's not including gusts? (My bold below.)

For example, here's this morning's 5.30 am Ballarat Forecast:
Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers. Winds northerly 30 to 40 km/h decreasing to 20 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming north to northwesterly and light in the evening.

And the SWW issued at 4.15 am with Ballarat squarely in the warning are (and specifically mentioned):
DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast to extend to the remainder of the warning area during Wednesday morning.

(There is a separate warning for higher windspeeds in elevated areas - this is just for the 'standard' area.')

[dazrain]

We’re BOM asleep at the wheel last Thursday re the damaging winds?

Was there any media releases or similar preceding the winds or were they totally unexpected in their strength pre arrival?

[Skywalker]

We’re BOM asleep at the wheel last Thursday re the damaging winds?

Was there any media releases or similar preceding the winds or were they totally unexpected in their strength pre arrival?

There has to be some serious questions asked regarding the warning procedures for severe weather events. Strong winds like the ones we are experiencing this morning for example are dangerous & warrant proper warnings, and by that I don't just mean on the BOM's website. I would even go as far as sending out SMS notifications.

[snowfall]

I guess the wind speeds for the warning area are averaged across the area, while specific wind speeds are given for particular locations? For example, there may be some spots that are a little more sheltered than others. Even so, it can be confusing sometimes. The forecast for Gisborne South today is for 35 - 55 km/h. We have actually had gusts up to 71km/h this morning here, which is more in line with the speeds given in the severe weather warning.

I really don't like wind! Especially in cases like this front and the last one on the weekend, where there's loads of wind and what feels like a big build up to the front arriving, only to end up with a brief bit of rain when it does arrive! Obviously the fronts are strong enough to produce lots of wind ahead of them but at the moment are simply failing to pick up any decent moisture. I noticed the pre-frontal band this morning has pretty much withered on the radar.

[stevco123]

I've been under the impression that forecasting/warnings have decreased in quality over the 10 years, although the warnings are still okay-ish. In fact, it's just the forecasts that REALLY frustrate me.

For example, we used to get 4 forecasts a day and an update in between if there is to be a major downgrade/upgrade. Now we have two forecasts per day, and the 5:00am one is just about the same as the 4:30pm one from the previous evening.

It's like a "lazy forecast"

That's why I come to AWF for my information.

BoM is just another goverment department, that just happens to look after the weather forecasts. The most unfortunate thing is they have to fight for funding for equipment it seems.

The Cranbourne weather station needs to be upgraded ASAP as you can now pretty much go up to it and touch it in the botanical gardens.

[Skywalker]

It's like a "lazy forecast"

Oh don't get me started on the BOM & their lazy forecasts, it's one of my biggest criticism's. Their constant "all eggs in one basket" approach to some of their Melbourne forecasts really has my blood boiling.

That's why I come to AWF for my information.

Same here.

Meanwhile back on topic, the filth is still blowing a gale here. Been outside on several occasions today to rescue things. Thank god I'm working from home today.

[StratoBendigo]

Dust storms are showing up on the Satpic coming off the Simpson Desert and into Western NSW. Nasty, here we go again...

[hillybilly]

Geez felted like an El Niño out there today. Unusually warm, dry and blustery winds Fire indices getting quite high in the Mallee with gusts and RH dropping to near 10%.

Maybe a shower or two tonight.

Progs really look like crap atm. Zero real interest for ten or more days. Who stole our regular thunder and stormy spring... can we have it back

[QldTwister]

So El Nino like and the synoptic pattern also looks it.
Warm, dry, windy, dust and fires and it will continue for at least the next 2 weeks.
Quite warm atm and a few warm days and nights to come in the coming few weeks

Better hope the second half of Sept the pattern shifts, but feel it wont untill Oct sesaonal outlook fail again could be a very wram dry Sept

Worried about crops in much of SA and western and Northern Vic if we have 3 weeks of hot dry windy contions will really dry the crops out.

More dry windy fronts to come very EL Nino like atm crazy

[Australis(Shell3155)]

We’re BOM asleep at the wheel last Thursday re the damaging winds?

How I was understanding the sww last Thursday was 120klm winds but more alpine areas.
Scoresby station recorded winds of 78klm, so for the areas I see hit Belgrave Emerald and heard of Hoodles Creek being more affected than junction wesburn areas, these are not Alpine areas in my map.
I was alert to this as we were that day having a large red gum branch removed and I was very happy that at least the canopy had been removed (Alpine area)
My Son said his mate in Mt Evelyn still had no Power yesterday.
Did anyone see what the winds were recorded in those hardest hit areas ?
Makes me want to ask Santa for our own weather station.

There has been extra alerts when there is SWW out I thought I noticed..

I think the drought then the canopy of these trees have grown, then the rain then the wind and they are all top heavy, although other pics show those white gums were just ripped to bits and thrown around.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Off topic.

Confuses me and has for years.. "no cheeky remarks req'd"

Explosions heard of a night time .. ?

There was another one about 2.25am more in the distance, towards west.
I recall hearing them maybe 15 years ago, then not. Oticex, now happening again..
lots of post on FB notice board groups. Just really odd.

[hillybilly]

Zilch in the gauge. Jeepers that’s lame,

Second try hard front for this arvo ahead of another mild to warm and windy day.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Zilch in the gauge. Jeepers that’s lame,

You'll be happy to have not received it as what landed here was a little heavy for long enough to distribute red dust and leave pretty patterns with it.

[StratoBendigo]

I don't see any decent rain until after Equinox to be honest.

[Adam38]

The wind is awful today, much stronger than yesterday... the garden is looking a little frazzled.

[tonycynic]

Our street in Mount Evelyn still had houses without power last night, took until monday night for the gum tree blocking the road to get moved. Most of the trees down were from having wet feet and the soil giving way. Waiting to see what happens with the rest of this period, garden drying out on top already.

[stevco123]

Geez, so much doom and gloom on here. A person reading the comments for the first time would think we're in some sort of drought. It's only been a few days without rain

What a year it's been!!!! Wet, wet and more wet. Great to see it so green everywhere.

This upcoming 10 day break, or so, will be great of predictions of upcoming downpours prove to be true. Winds are annoying, but September to November is the windiest period, so nothing unusual.

[StratoBendigo]

BOM latest rainfall outlook isn't great for September. October predicted to be off the scale wet still...