Becoming warm and windy ahead of a late cool change: August 29-31

[hillybilly]

Bit of an early taste of spring with a rapid return of mild to warm conditions ahead of a gusty swly change. Could well see 25C in the Mallee and Gippsland on Saturday and Sunday. Around Melbourne, thinking a number around 22 to 24C is a chance in the usual warm spots.

Front looks gusty, but not much moisture to tap so showers and mainly in the south.

[hillybilly]

Second of three mild to warm days coming up. Wind shouldn’t be too bad today, but will pick up as the day goes on. Tomorrow looks very windy Uppers are very warm with this system, peaking around 12 or 13C in the northwest. That’s warm enough for a temperature of 30C if the air became fully mixed, but the suns still a bit weak for that to happen atm. Still, wouldn’t be surprised if we see numbers over 25C which is pretty warm for this time of year.

Front looks showery, but not that wet. There is very little tropical moisture atm, so systems are moisture starved.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Doesn't sound like there's that many people excited about the warm weather @hillybilly.

Sounds windy outside, they sound like winds at a higher elevation though from the mountains, usually I can hear winds in the Warburton ranges from here, it can be gusty in the mountains, and just a bit breezy down lower here, I believe it's gonna get windier tomorrow, but hopefully no where as bad as Thursday afternoon, we only had the power go off for about an hour that day.

[StratoBendigo]

"Moisture starved" is the key phrase. All the rain is falling on India and China this Austral winter.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... anim.shtml

Things might pick up precipitation-wise after Sept 10 when the next MJO is in the zone...

[Skywalker]

The disgusting filth is back today, so expect to see more damage from these pointless conditions.

[Hawker]

"Moisture starved" is the key phrase. All the rain is falling on India and China this Austral winter.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... anim.shtml

Things might pick up precipitation-wise after Sept 10 when the next MJO is in the zone...

Well it is the monsoon season up there, but I see what you are saying.
The MJO is expected to be weak over Australia.
https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/curre ... st-4414123
I am developing strong doubts that the iod and la nina will deliver for us
The pressure pattern does not seem to want to alter, hard to know what is going on with the climate,
but i think we seem to have had a similar pattern in recent times to these articles about south west usa.
https://newatlas.com/environment/wester ... ate-study/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 145929002/
Sorry mods probably the wrong place for this but oh well.
I posted this because I am quite often wrong about things and hope so in this case!
Hooroo Chris

[StratoBendigo]

Even when the ocean conditions are ideal, it can take a little while for the atmosphere to respond. I'm thinking of a few recent years which didn't kick on until mid-Sept.

[weathergasm]

It’s much too early to say the developing La Niña and negative IOD is a dud. We’re not even out of winter yet - when the monsoon trough starts to migrate into the Southern Hemisphere we’ll have a much better idea of its impact, and that’s still at least around six weeks away.

That said, the BOM is fairly bullish on higher than average rainfall this spring/summer in much of the country, along with an earlier wet season onset up north. It may not turn out to be like 2010/2011, but I personally expect to see more humid and unsettled days here in Melbourne than the average summer.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Snow is holding up well, still a little bit of snow about 1100m asl or a little lower on the ranges.

Not enough to take a picture of, since I don't have enough zoom, but pretty amazing it's held up for a week+ with the warm weather.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Here comes that Red and blue stuff, prepared.. Umm.
Rather it in daylight hours than over night,
Council likes big gum trees outside bed room windows.. wonder if they start to change their minds a little more recently.

[hillybilly]

Tree down round the corner from us last night so power out for a couple of days Almost our whole suburb is down. Really doesn’t feel like we live in the ass end of Australia atm in Victoria Hope our luck changes in Vic soon

Picked up 0.6mm from the initial band. Pretty feeble front, so not expecting a lot. Perhaps 2-5mm if we get lucky.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

122klm winds Wilson’s prom..

[stevco123]

Looks like another year where I didn't make it to 20 degrees in August for my immediate area. That's 4 years in a row now. 2016 was the last time I got to 20 in August.

Warmest maximum was 19.8 (today) for August 2020, the coldest being 7.8 on the 4th.

Probably will get to 80mm of rain by 9am tomorrow. Just over 500mm for the year, although the manual gauge is showing a little more.

[WeatherViewer]

Looks like another year where I didn't make it to 20 degrees in August for my immediate area. That's 4 years in a row now. 2016 was the last time I got to 20 in August.

Warmest maximum was 19.8 (today) for August 2020, the coldest being 7.8 on the 4th.

Probably will get to 80mm of rain by 9am tomorrow. Just over 500mm for the year, although the manual gauge is showing a little more.

That's interesting Stevco, here in Truganina we have had 4 days at 20.0 C and above, a former BOM chap has a professional weather station setup around the corner.

Recordings were:

2nd August: 20.1 C
27th August: 21.2 C
29th August: 21.3 C
30th August: 20.3 C

http://www.truganinaweather.com/yearly- ... atures.htm

[Sean]

I wouldn't worry about a failed 'wet season' just yet. We're still in a transitionary period right now. There's no guarantee that a negative IOD or La Nina will result in above average rain this summer, but conditions/patterns haven't been this well poised for rain in a long time. Remember, 2010-2011 was a neg IOD + a La Nina, so people on the East coast may want to check their insurance covers flooding just in case...

Nippy one tomorrow (relatively speaking) then 21 on Wed according to the BOM. Kind of missing the colder nights already to be honest. Out with the duvet and in with the quilt just about.

[hillybilly]

4mm in the gauge this morning. A couple of heavy heavy showers but all short lived.

Might sneak a couple more today before it clears. Bit of a fizzer as expected. Closes one of the “best” months of winter weather here in a long time. 175mm of rain (about 60mm above average) three snow days, multiple hail and thunderstorms. Temps almost right on average, perhaps a touch below, but quite the roller coaster.

Another fading front lining us up for Thursday. Could be thundery depending on exactly when it moves through. Guess a new thread required.

[StratoBendigo]

There's an interesting thread on the ski forum about the lack of Planetary or Rossby Waves this winter. And when they did occur (mid-August), it saved the winter growing season and dumped a nearly a metre of snow on the Alps.

Today is on the chilly side, although no clouds here today. Barely any rain yesterday evening. Perhaps a few dregs next weekend, although 18Z GFS is hinting at something half-decent next week.

[snowfall]

Just 1mm here yesterday evening. Very feeble front, which obviously struggled to tap any decent moisture.

All up for August, it was fairly wet here for the most part - 20 days of recorded rain with one snow day and lots of wind to finish the month. In total, we had 78.6mm, which is above average. The maximum temp was right on average at 12c but the minimum of 4.9c was about half a degree above. Highest temp for the month was 17.5c (yesterday) and lowest was 0.5c (with the snow on the 4th). It definitely feels like spring is in the air now. The sun is noticeably brighter and we're already starting to get those warmer spike days.

Obviously a few things need to fall into place this spring. I don't think the IOD is officially negative yet, but it has been trending that way. Hopefully it does manage it, but it will probably be on the weaker side if it does. La Nina seems like a surer bet. In any case, it's a much better position to be in than an El Nino and a positive IOD, so hopefully synoptics line up a bit more as the country starts to fully warm up.

[Gordon]

Cold start here at 2C and only 6C now with a distinct bite in the breeze - winter is hanging in there until the bitter end. At least that bloody wind has backed off - one feature of approaching spring that I definitely don't enjoy.

We had 3mm overnight to finish the month on 116.5mm; well above average. (YTD is over 50mm ahead at 591.5mm.) Two days when the snow settled plus a couple more when it snowed but didn't settle. Temps fractionally above average for minimums, and fractionally below for maximums, so almost spot on average overall.

[QldTwister]

Nice wet month for many was August, and it was very much needed as well for many across the state.

4mm from the last 2 fronts and the windy mild pattern will continue this week and even warmer as we get into next week

Dry and warm first 2 weeks of Sept on the way, Spring has def sprung

Amazing how the pattern has shifted right on time to more spring like.