Deep slow moving low with rain, snow, gales and storm surge: August 17-24

[hillybilly]

Big slow moving system that will bring the works. Widespread showers and rain, gales, potential for a large storm surge and heavy snowfalls possibly dropping to very low levels late in the period. Progs are showing heavy falls for many areas. Expecting the usual wet spots to crack the ton, and some may do better again. Will last for at least a week. Will be great for runoff, but could well bring floods if total sit on the upper end.

Current runs have snow levels dropping below 500m later, so might get another snowfall up here.

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall totals: St Patrick's Head 76mm, Gray 59mm, Swansea 38mm, Fingal 36mm, Upper Esk 26mm, Mt Barrow 21mm, Launceston 4.4mm, Hobart 1.2mm

[StratoBendigo]

Still looks like it'll a very cold system. But drier for us. We'll be lucky to get 15mm this coming week.

[QldTwister]

Yeah looking VERY Wet for on and south of the ranges, especially the wet spots Otways, Dandys, West and South Gippy, NE ranges.

Wet and active week, north of ranges only get 5 to 15mm, Mallee prob less, south and mount 25 to 50, wet spots 50 to 100mm

Easy 100 for you HB Sunday to Sunday lucky
This will prime the Dandys, Upper Yarra and much Gippy for Spring floods NE still few more rain events away need more

Wild week with damaging winds, gales, flooding, heavy rain, lots of showers, hail, thunder, heavy snow, Blizzards likely in Alps ad COLd to very cold late week

Active week ahead will be fun to Watch

[Tassiedave]

Rain last 24 hours: Gray 44mm, St Patrick's Head 36mm, Buckland 28mm, Upper Esk 20mm, Hobart 12mm, Launceston 3.4mm

[Gordon]

Great to see the rain keep coming for Tassie!

We've scored another 3mm overnight after a beautiful day yesterday, so 13mm total for what I suppose is 'part one', now showery again and quite cold at 7C.

[Blackie]

Yeah looking VERY Wet for on and south of the ranges, especially the wet spots Otways, Dandys, West and South Gippy, NE ranges.

Wet and active week, north of ranges only get 5 to 15mm, Mallee prob less, south and mount 25 to 50, wet spots 50 to 100mm

Easy 100 for you HB Sunday to Sunday lucky
This will prime the Dandys, Upper Yarra and much Gippy for Spring floods NE still few more rain events away need more

Wild week with damaging winds, gales, flooding, heavy rain, lots of showers, hail, thunder, heavy snow, Blizzards likely in Alps ad COLd to very cold late week

Active week ahead will be fun to Watch

Love your enthusiasm and forecasts Twister. Keep em coming! Looking like a wet week for many of us. Hoping it is here too. We've missed a bit lately but had enough to wet the Eildon catchment enough to be primed and ready for run off.

[StratoBendigo]

Maybe 20mm here this coming week. Not sure if that'll be enough to get rivers flowing around here yet. Lots of farm dams haven't filled, and Coliban dams are holding less water than this time last year.

[hillybilly]

Progs remarkably stable. Hard to count the number of fronts/troughs, but looks like about 1 a day through till late Sunday. Coldest air on Friday and Saturday with snow levels likely to drop to around 500m give or take.

[StratoBendigo]

Hmmmm, definitely looks cold later this week. But precip totals seem to be going backwards with each model run. We'll be lucky to get 15mm. At this stage August might end up below average rain for us looking at the long-term forecasts too.

[hillybilly]

Rain inbound from the west. This system will be one where each front gets stronger and colder. Expecting a few mm’s here next 24 hour, with better falls about the northern slopes.

BTW looks like a solid storm surge on the coast. Shame no one can see it

[StratoBendigo]

Lock-in the big snowfalls I reckon. Could go on into next week too.

Friday-Saturday this week looks particularly cold.

[hillybilly]

Part A a complete dud. 0.2mm here.

Showers this arvo hopefully at least double that Could be thundery.

Not looking so good for low level snow on the latest model runs, but still cold, wet and windy. Might just be a wiggle.

[StratoBendigo]

Managed to get 3mm overnight. Rather cold outside now.

But it doesn't look great for decent rains. EC has just 12mm for us in the coming week...

[QldTwister]

Yeah rainfall totals slowly dropping away to be less and less on the forecasts but still cold, wet and windy week but not huge.

Most of the south should still see 15-30mm this week with isol 50mm in wet spots and 3-10mm in the north though 30 to 80mm in the NE with upslope effects.

Should get 30mm here this week espically when we go SWly hoping get some good hail and thunder showers

Alpine areas should see 50 to 80cm a nice dump

[Supercellimpact]

Can't ski them though

[Didjman]

Radar filling in nicely to the NW in a NW flow. No radio static yet. Baro 998.1

[Wilko]

Bring it on
Just snuck in a quick mow

[StratoBendigo]

Warm, sunny, and 15 degC. Where's this cold outbreak?

Looks like some cold air in an active front in the Bight just South of Ceduna. Hopefully that'll impact us tonight/tomorrow morning.

[hillybilly]

Wintery arvo up here, but sparse showers which just made it unpleasant. 0.4mm in the gauge. Next trough is currently moving into central, though the sun going down is working against it. Might score a mm or two. Ok falls back through western Vic and along the northern slopes as expected.

Tomorrow front is much stronger. Will be a good burst of heavy showers and colder weather during the arvo.