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1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by snowfall »

Yeah some intense rainfall forecast for the north east. Some areas up there do need some good rain, although 200mm+ might be a bit much all at once. Looking very marginal here. I may end up watching rain sliding to our east, but for now I live in hope for something decent!

17c today after a low of 8c. It’s feeling like autumn.
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by Sean »

It's looking like a historic event in some parts, but we'll have a better idea tomorrow morning. We've seen systems like this collapse before.

I'm still curious as to south of the range... The alps often shred rain bearing systems that descend from the north, but (some) models show heavy rain pushing right through to the prom pretty much (northern metro areas also do well, with heavy rain appearing from midday onwards now).

I'm thinking 5-10mm here lol (never have luck with these kind of events)
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by snowfall »

The latest model runs put the rain a little further west. Interesting that GFS has been progressively extending the boundary westward with most model runs. It was well out in the east of Victoria a couple of days ago. Anyway, might all change tomorrow morning, so we’ll see.
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by Sean »

Precip values are shooting up, with moisture pouring over NSW. Some inland regions are already nudging 100mm :o
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by QldTwister »

This system is AMAZING for parts of NT, Qld, NSW and NE Vic alreday 110mm at Flowers Gap in W NSW surely flooding there already over 40mm at Birdsville they will see a years worth of rain the next 36 hours as will many parts of SW Qld and NE NSW

Pouring rain over huge areas of NT, Qld and NSW and only going to increase some of the totals clocking up Huge

Sadly West Vic miss out again will it ever rain in the Mallee again they are so close to soaking rain they are just a tad to far west, but this will set up much of NSW and NE Vic for the coming season such widespread 50 to 150mm the Murray Darling basin also getting covered with soaking rain the Darling will run again yay

AMAZING system wont get much here but dont need it just wish was getting West Vic Mallee and E Sa but so happy for all of western Qld and all of inlnad NSW

Huge 2 day totals likely lots of widespread flooding too likely

Melb right on the edge 2 days of closely watching Sat and radar images which will be full tomorrow and Thursday
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by StratoBendigo »

12z GFS has moved it further West again.

We might be in with a shot. Ironically 5-6th March was rather memorable 10 years ago too...
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just started raining lightly here. Mildura has scored 23mm already, which indicates that the heavy rain is falling somewhat West of many forecast models.
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by hillybilly »

Totals adding up nicely in northern Vic and southern NSW. Heavy stuff reaches Vic overnight. Northeast will be interesting - current forecasts are similar to 1993 and 2012.

Few spots in the Nongs so far. Expecting about 30mm for us.
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by stevco123 »

Definitely looks like whole system is more west than officially forecast
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by StratoBendigo »

One things that worries me is an injection of dry desert air from the Northwest that's currently sitting over central South Australia. That killed our last big tropical system in January (the mega-disappointing January 19-20 system which promised a deluge and delivered nothing).
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by QldTwister »

Amazing totals in Qld and NSW overnight :D :D
Birdsville now over 100mm and still pouring down what a great time to be there
Flowers Gap 130mm 3 times last years ANNUAL TOTAL with many 50 to 100mm falls in NT QLd and W NSW and they will get the same again today which is just awesome :D :D

50-150mm looking good for the NE with isol 200mm in next 36 hours :D :D

FANTASTIC :D :D :D to see models wrong around the Mallee with 10-20mm falling there and still raining Mildura up to 25mm wettest day since May last year.
Hoping the rain continues up there all day and night though looks to be easing from the north

Main blob of heavy rain and moisture in SW Qld and NW NSW quoickly moving SE should see that on radar tonight

Amazing system great start to Autumn for inland folk
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by StratoBendigo »

00Z GFS has 40mm now for us. Today has been frustrating though. It's trying to rain but just can't at the moment.

As for Birdsville earlier today:
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by Sean »

Ya, GFS looking a lot better, particularly in central and metro areas, with heavy rain projected to start moving through around midnight.

Won't hold my breath though.
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by Wilko »

Sean wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:07 pm Ya, GFS looking a lot better, particularly in central and metro areas, with heavy rain projected to start moving through around midnight.

Won't hold my breath though.
Same
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by nafets »

Models agreeing on big falls in NE Victoria around 100mm. Gfs brings the heaviest falls a big further west than others into North Central and more rain in Melbourne. Models have the heaviest rain in Melbourne starting early hours - morning Thursday where we should hopefully see 20mm (gfs has 40-50mm).
Go the bombersss!
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by Sean »

BOM not interested at all... "Chance of showers" with a projected 2-6mm tomorrow (in Mel).

Fair bit of disagreement regarding the charts and official forecasts :?
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by nafets »

Yes will believe it when I see it but Boms latest forecast hasn’t got all the latest model runs at 00z. Heaviest falls still projected in the NE.
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by hillybilly »

Models wiggles back west on the latest run. EC has about 50mm here now. Be a nice autumn break :D

Spots in NSW have now seen more rain in 48 hours than the past two years :o
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just 4mm so far. Hopefully more but the radar doesn't look great atm.
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Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Post by Sean »

StratoBendigo wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:32 pm Just 4mm so far. Hopefully more but the radar doesn't look great atm.
The bulk of the moisture is still creeping down over NSW and QLD. Hopefully we see some rapid development in the in the next few hours.

The infeed is two pronged, with moisture streaming in from the Arafura sea and coral sea. Potential for some crazy falls inland.

Hoping for at least 20mm :(
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