1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

[Gordon]

Really difficult to predict this one being such a rare event if it comes off, but both EC and ACCESS (and to a 'jumpier' extent GFS) currently expect ex TC Esther to eventually wander south-east towards Victoria around mid to end of next week, with the possibility of heavy rain and big winds if that comes off.

Or, we might just end up with a trough and a few showers. Worth keeping an eye on, and if nothing else the latest ACCESS animation is entertaining to watch: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... ndex.shtml

[Sean]

It's interesting, that's for sure.

Models suggesting a state-wide event pretty much. It even seems to jump the range, driving heavy rain into southern regions (including metro) which is odd when it comes to systems from the north (it'll drag a lot of moisture from the tropics, which is probably why).

Let's hope it holds.

[hillybilly]

Quite a complex sequence. First front tomorrow, looks very showery in southern areas though mostly light falls. Strong front for Sunday into Monday. Could be locally heavy falls, gusty winds, possibly some snow about the peaks, small hail and maybe even some cold air rumbles. Bit of variation across the progs, so details not certain, but looks quite wintery.

Then ex-TC Esther gets captured by the upper trough and a deep low develops somewhere near Victoria around Thursday. Would not be too confident about the last part, but current progs are showing potential for something big. EC is going for a cracking system.

[StratoBendigo]

EC looks bonkers. 6mm on Sunday night then 85 mm in the landphoon....

Other forecast models not that keen.

[Tassiedave]

GFS model not keen at all on Thursday rain now. Sweeps it away to NSW.

[Gordon]

GFS has been the outlier off and on for a few runs now. WATL still reasonably keen this morning (and would probably be keener without GFS). http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

[stevco123]

I bet it'll end up somewhere between Sydney and Gabo Island.

[hillybilly]

Cold wet and foggy morning up here. Nearly 6mm in the gauge. Puts the month over 170mm YTD is about 350mm.

Clearing now for a couple of nice days ahead of a cold blast for Monday.

[Dane]

BOM are a bit unsure about the system later next week going for somewhere between zero and 18mm's
for Ballarat over 3 days.

[hillybilly]

Progs are really spraying for next week. Could be 5mm or 100mm depending on which model and ensemble you choose to pick.

Now waiting for them to settle down.

System for Sunday night looks like a classic autumn front. Rainfall totals jumping up and down - EC had dropped off to more like 5-10mm for southern and mountain areas, while GFS and CMC are ramping up. Thinking we could see around 20mm here (plus or minus 15mm ).

[stevco123]

Oh well, looks like "summer" is over ahead of the solstice this year. Pretty crappy season it was, with hardly any prolonged heat and February behaving more like late March/early April.

The lack of global warming protestors in the city shows it must have indeed been a cool one

[Tassiedave]

Pretty average month here in Launceston. Avge max was a touch over 24 degrees which is about average. 60 mm of rain was slightly above average.

[Sean]

The heaviest rain seems to be pulling east, with metro areas now borderline.

Still time for it to shift back.

[Macedonian]

Oh well, looks like "summer" is over ahead of the solstice this year. Pretty crappy season it was, with hardly any prolonged heat and February behaving more like late March/early April.

The lack of global warming protestors in the city shows it must have indeed been a cool one

Was it though? Was it cooler than average for Melbourne?

It was a weird one here in Mt Macedon.
Hottish and dry as hell in December but bearable because of the wet November.

Hottest max was 36C
Coldest max was 7.5C on two days.
9 days with a max higher than 30C.
(Last Summer we had 12 days above 30 in Jan alone)
3 days with a max less than 10C.
18 days with a max less than 15C.
200mm of rain.
1 day with snow falling on 2 December.

All in all a good summer. No prolonged heat or dry like last year, thank heavens.

[Sean]

Oh well, looks like "summer" is over ahead of the solstice this year. Pretty crappy season it was, with hardly any prolonged heat and February behaving more like late March/early April.

The lack of global warming protestors in the city shows it must have indeed been a cool one

Was it though? Was it cooler than average for Melbourne?

It was a weird one here in Mt Macedon.
Hottish and dry as hell in December but bearable because of the wet November.

Hottest max was 36C
Coldest max was 7.5C on two days.
9 days with a max higher than 30C.
(Last Summer we had 12 days above 30 in Jan alone)
3 days with a max less than 10C.
18 days with a max less than 15C.
200mm of rain.
1 day with snow falling on 2 December.

All in all a good summer. No prolonged heat or dry like last year, thank heavens.

1.4 degrees below average in Feb. Summer overall (Dec to Feb) only 0.4 above average according to weatherzone.

Our first normal summer in 15 years. Climate science just got owned. Take that alarmists.

[Macedonian]

Lol! One below average summer month means nothing.

[stevco123]

Lol! One below average summer month means nothing.

Very true, but no doubt our seasons are getting more and more distorted however. The only reason why we were only JUST above the average for summer is because of three or four spike days above 40 degrees the whole season. It's very easy to go back to articles online from 10 years ago that insist that by 2013 our dams will be dry, there will be no snow in Australia, glaciers will be gone by 2020- none of which has come true.
Let's leave it at that as this isn't the thread for it.

[Gordon]

We finished the month on 68.5mm, and 147mm ytd. As others have mentioned, a far cry from this point in 2019.

The Feb temps have been wonderful: exactly 2C below average for maximums (0.9C above average for minimums) and not even close to a single 30C day. March looks to get off to a nice start for temps and rain, so, so far so good in 2020!

[Sean]

Lol! One below average summer month means nothing.

Very true, but no doubt our seasons are getting more and more distorted however. The only reason why we were only JUST above the average for summer is because of three or four spike days above 40 degrees the whole season. It's very easy to go back to articles online from 10 years ago that insist that by 2013 our dams will be dry, there will be no snow in Australia, glaciers will be gone by 2020- none of which has come true.
Let's leave it at that as this isn't the thread for it.

Were you out of the country this past summer? Yes, parts of Victoria and coastal fringes have been average, but the country as a whole is only just exiting one of the driest and hottest summers in history. Dams were running dry. Some dams across parts of the country had been empty for 2 years! Lest we forget the worst fires in history, not in terms of human casualty - this country and its emergency response plans saved many - but in terms of destruction of habitat and wildlife (made even more remarkable due to the fact so much forest and wildlife has already disappeared since white settlement, meaning the acreage lost is relative to a much smaller extent of habitat).

You're right, though, this isn't the thread for it, but you can't expect to keep making climate change remarks, then hoping to have final remarks. I get it, you're a skeptic. But for the sake of anyone else perusing this thread: don't forget the bigger picture. Remember the fires. Remember the extreme drought. Remember that part of the reason some places are average is due to persistent, above average and extreme rainfall events which cap daytime highs.

There's a lot of hyperbole in articles relating to climate change, this is true. But news articles aren't science, they're not data or peer reviewed studies. There's is a big difference.

[Sean]

Anyway, some on topic, good news: the projected rain has shifted west slightly.

A big rain event of some sort is almost locked in, but where it eventuates still seems all over the place regarding the models.

NSW tends to come out on top, but Vic sees decent periods of rain Wed into Thur.

Will be interesting to see just how strong the tropical infeed will be. If it were anything like that plume of moisture a few weeks ago, we would see 100 to 200mm falls through inland NSW and Vic as the trigger is better this time around, but that infeed was exceptional (ended up dumping over 400mm in NZ).