Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1826
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:37 am

It feels like Autumn this morning. Cloudy but no rain.

EC is hinting at a significant system from the Northeast around Monday the 24th , although the other forecast models aren't at all interested.
Dane
Supercell
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Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:13 am

As expected too far West to get the best from this event.
8.8mm's up to 9am this morning giving me 10.7mm's for the event.
Even less at Ballarat Airport just 4.6mm's to 9am - event total 6.0mm's.
Looks basically dry for the next few days at least.
Currently 14/9c
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 867
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:23 am

Still raining here in Northern Tassie. 37mm in Launceston in the last 16 hours.
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2272
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:57 am

That is great about Launceston rain. Hopefully my farmer friends near Cressy are getting some.

Ended up with 11mm here and exactly 60mm mtd.

Very wintery with 14C and windy after a low of 7C. Looking likely we will end Feb without a 30C day; very unusual. Even Ballarat is a chance to achieve the same.
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hillybilly
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Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:22 pm

Finished on 55mm and had 1mm since 9am. MTD about 150mm, YTD just north of 330mm. Tis cold and blustery this arvo. Wood fire is on, burning up some of the branches that have fallen in recent weeks.

Looking forward to a few warm sunny days. Much as I like storms and humidity they make it hard to do stuff...
dazrain
Cumulus
Posts: 64
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:39 pm
Location: Brighton East, Victoria

Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:52 pm

Nice and wet yesterday in Brighton East.
Some small hail at 6.30 with the big storm.

At a cafe and overheard someone say to the cafe owner re the weather “must be climate change”.

Be nice if the public were better informed.

Simply put, you bake the country like an oven in December, then interact that heat with moist tropical infeed from the monsoon - and bang! The kettle has to let off some steam somewhere/somehow!
weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 131
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Elwood home, CBD work

Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:46 pm

Except to bake as the country did in December you need the input of climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which have been exacerbated by human-induced climate change. So those people at the cafe may not be ill-informed at all.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.117 ... 12-00638.1

https://idp.nature.com/transit?redirect ... 36c10d33f6
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 878
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:34 pm

Thunderstorms are a very poor indices regarding climate change as they're fickle by nature and are subject to so many variables in their formation.

The storms yesterday weren't unusual. We have seen some incredible rainfall rates and high precip values this summer, but we'll have to see a lot more before trends emerge.

It's been an unusual summer overall though. From record breaking heat to great rain events. Really, as soon as SAM and the +IOD decayed, the action began. It's just strange that this still happens to be a relatively poor monsoon year. Some places in the tropics aren't even at half of average yet.

There are only a few absolutes when it comes to climate change, such as less ice and higher seas being a given - that's just pure physics. However, it would be good if these tropical downpours, within reason, become a more prominent feature of our summers. It may help negate less winter rain. It's just so depressing how ecologically devastating 2019/2020 was before this abrupt change. Severe droughts and mega fires aren't conducive to the lush ecosystems of temperate forest and diverse fauna that we get to enjoy on the eastern seaboard.
QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 227
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:06 pm

Yep weather just going to get more and more crazy and Melb will get more humid stormy and wild cant wait.

Wild 36 hours yesterday was like Qld loved it had it all but just cooler. Storms, Floods, Hail, wild love it, but NOW ITS COLD BOOOOO

30mm from storms, 18mm from wraparound 92mm for Month so wet

Crazy summer been fun just want a few stints of multplie days in the 30s in row light winds, just beach bbq days
Odd 40c day too, just one more (though thats done for Melb i reckon now no 40s till Dec Jan)

Winter fast approaching only got March and maybe April left, then thats it till Oct :( :(

Sunday looks great but working

So green around pretty amazing
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:52 am

0.4mm overnight, and spitty drizzle this morning. Makes for a fantastic 57.4mm for this part of the event. Guess that more or less draws to a close the longest (by days) thread in our forum's history :D

Our MTD total is just shy of 155mm and January gave 185mm. Tis interesting that falls north of 150mm are reasonably common in the Nongs in January and February (perhaps once every 3-5 years) but it's rare to get 150mm in both months. That appears to have happened only once before, way back in 1924. No complaints - been the dullest fire season for us locally since the 2010-11-12 La Nina sequence, and garden looks a treat. Wish this was out new normal ;)

Looks like another potential thundery event for early next week. New thread time, almost.

BTW December was by far Australia's hottest (and the year before was the previous record). Tis pretty clear that this isn't just a random walk. Our summers are becoming much more easterly as the highs drift further south on average, which is partly why we are seeing repeated record high humidities (Melbourne's dewpoint record was set in December 2016, then broken earlier this month). It also means rainfall is more storm driven, so more "winners and losers". No interest in debating this, just stating what the data shows, and what we are all feeling. I must admit to liking the more easterly weather (particularly when it delivers storms).
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 354
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:49 am

It is so incredibly green around here! I’ve had just over 135mm since Jan 19th to now, having had a few direct hits by thunderstorms.
Macedonian
Supercell
Posts: 2125
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:03 pm

I def like this kind of summer. I would be more than happy to not see anything close to 30C until next November.
Cold night here 6.6C min and 9.8C max, back to 9.7C now.
I'm up to about 180mm ytd. Soooo much better than this time last year.
wolfcat
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Bentleigh East
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Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:35 pm

So went through my photos from the storm the other day to see if I had any other keepers...

I think this one counts.

Image
A very Melbourne storm by Wolf
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Didjman
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:13 pm

wolfcat wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:35 pm
So went through my photos from the storm the other day to see if I had any other keepers...

I think this one counts.
SURE DOES! WOW!
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1213
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:18 pm

wolfcat wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:35 pm
So went through my photos from the storm the other day to see if I had any other keepers...

I think this one counts.

Image
A very Melbourne storm by Wolf
Awesome indeed
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hillybilly
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Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:04 am

Some heavy showers around the city and burbs this morning. Tis a bit too southerly for the outer east, so just 0.2mm and a bit of fog in the Nongs/

Nice weekend, then more humid weather next week with the odd shower/storms, more widespread in east central and eastern parts. Ne nice to sneak another event before months end.
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2272
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:08 am

We'd better start a new thread; this one must just about be a record breaker for duration (even though its length has been justified).

A brief break in the pattern with the high coming over us, makes for a good reset point.
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