Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 891
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:50 pm

Looks ready to split around me again.
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2465
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:55 pm

That thunder... Been going on for half an hour now as it moves closer and closer
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 891
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:03 pm

Looks headed for Moorabbin/Bayside burbs.

I can barely hear a thing here, just one small rumble. 10 or so minutes ago.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 878
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:04 pm

This time yesterday the BOM forecast 15-30 mm for Launceston but as I type we have had 0 mm. Very disappointing. Still stuck on 10.8mm for February.
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2465
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:38 pm

Sean wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:03 pm
Looks headed for Moorabbin/Bayside burbs.

I can barely hear a thing here, just one small rumble. 10 or so minutes ago.
Been going for ages now, but the main action seems to split again, as you said.

Impressive mammatus though.

Constant rolling thunder now...
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
WeatherViewer
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 359
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:57 pm
Location: Truganina

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:40 pm

Still at the office, down on St Kilda Road, near Prahran. Just got completely smashed here with heavy hail and torrential rain. :o
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 891
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:47 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:38 pm
Sean wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:03 pm
Looks headed for Moorabbin/Bayside burbs.

I can barely hear a thing here, just one small rumble. 10 or so minutes ago.
Been going for ages now, but the main action seems to split again, as you said.

Impressive mammatus though.

Constant rolling thunder now...
Yeah, sure am hearing it now. Hopefully we get something
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2465
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:50 pm

Nice shelf cloud visible to my Northwest. Too bad it's moving from southwest to northeast. Pics to follow later
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3791
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:52 pm

Lots of booming rumbles as the band approaches. Looks mean :D (happy with heavy rain, but no large hail for me, please ;) ).
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occluded
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 595
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 3:26 pm
Location: Doncaster East 106m asl
Contact:

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:06 pm

Two minutes of 5 cent-sized hail and some overflowing gutters. All calm now.
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mick
Supercell
Posts: 1445
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:45 pm
Location: Mid North SA Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:07 pm

Pretty impressive day you are having. Most unusual activity given the temps. Im struggling to recall a similar event in relatively mild temps in Feb since radar was online.
Moorabbin, because it is the highest hill closest to the coast on the eastern side of the bay in metro melb, it has its own weather, squeezes out the rain in all seasons.
BOM gave a good forecast, credit where it is due.
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hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3791
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:16 pm

mick wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:07 pm
Pretty impressive day you are having. Most unusual activity given the temps. Im struggling to recall a similar event in relatively mild temps in Feb since radar was online.
Moorabbin, because it is the highest hill closest to the coast on the eastern side of the bay in metro melb, it has its own weather, squeezes out the rain in all seasons.
BOM gave a good forecast, credit where it is due.
Seen a few days like this in January or February, but probably only a once every few years. Wish we could crank one every second week ;)

Quick five and a bit mm here so almost up to an inch. MTD is about 120mm which is nearly double the February average. Makes it a bit over 300mm YTD :D

Now waiting for the swly showers on the backside of the developing low.
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
Posts: 2691
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:05 pm
Location: FTG
Contact:

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:21 pm

“James”. You’ve been wishing for this for many years..
and there rippers these storms. !
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 891
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:23 pm

Very tame here as expected. Not having much luck with direct hits.

Nice top up though, and very welcome for Feb, which usually errs on the dry side of things.

Would like to see this pattern follow us into autumn.. Still have very fond memories of that very soggy April a few years ago.
wolfcat
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 562
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:14 pm
Location: Bentleigh East
Contact:

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:25 pm

WOW, WOW and more WOW...

Managed to make it down to Brighton to see that come in, pull the DSLR shots now. The rain and hail and thunder was to use the technical BoM term.. UTTERLY BONKERS :-)
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 882
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:26 pm

Well..i got more than i bargained for!

nasty bolt landed somewhere just across near boronia road, or the bowling green estate. I am pretty sure it was close as i actually saw the tentacles touch down and sparks falling from the powerline with instantaneous thunder.

I also saw the security lights of the house over from me come on and off, and then flicker as if they were damaged!

no damage here thankfully, i had disconnected everything as i could see we were in the firing line.

It all moved on pretty quickly after that, thankfully no hail !!

whats the conditions like this evening, will storms still fire after dark or are they relying on the heating?
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1220
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:42 pm

I do not have any luck with posting photos But I will do my best later
wolfcat
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 562
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:14 pm
Location: Bentleigh East
Contact:

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:50 pm

And here is said image of the storm just before it hit.

Image
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 891
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:00 pm

Nice bloody shot there, wolfcat! Ominous tinge of green.
wolfcat
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 562
Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:14 pm
Location: Bentleigh East
Contact:

Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:11 pm

Sean wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:00 pm
Nice bloody shot there, wolfcat! Ominous tinge of green.
Made it back to the car a few seconds before it hit, and the sound of the hail on the windscreen was making me a bit nervous I can tell you.
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