Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1826
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:02 pm

Looks like a protracted period of warm and humid weather, along with potentially heavy rain from Thursday onwards as tropical moisture streams in from the Northeast.

EC is ramping it up on Thursday. NSW and Qld look to get the bulk of the rain which is great, and a good chance of some of it ending up in Vic as well.

Extended GFS quite bullish beyond the above dates too.
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 878
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:07 pm

It’s looking a lot better today. Fairly interesting week ahead (insane up north), with showers and storms a possibility most days.
weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 131
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Elwood home, CBD work

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:47 pm

For much of coastal NSW this event is pretty much locked in, but for us Victorians it is a much more uncertain event (looking at the synoptics). Curious to see how this one pans out but it looks like east and northeast parts of the state are in with the best shot at this stage.
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hillybilly
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Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:21 am

EC and CMC have upgraded a lot on the latest run with heavy falls in the east into central areas and multiple days of showers and storms. Heavy to very heavy falls in NSW and Queensland, potentially topping 500mm :o Could cause substantial areas in the burn scar areas.

I struggle to think of such a long live blocking event with very humid easterly flow into a trough for 14 days give or take. A deep tropical depression or TC also looks like moving down into the Tasman Sea which will bring down some deep tropical moisture and push big swells onto the NSW coast.

EDIT> looking at EC it’s got widespread though scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow. Falls are patchy, but locally heavy. Cells make it into the Melbourne metro area, so might be a chance. Best of it near and north of the ranges.
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Didjman
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Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:34 am

When I got home yesterday, there were Currawongs wolf whistling. That usually is a sign of a significant weather change. Also, these birds hang only around here in the cooler months! I haven't heard them for months either. Very interesting.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 868
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:28 am

wow, storms firing in victoria already...
Lucia
Cumulus
Posts: 45
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Location: Lilydale

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:45 am

Didjman wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:34 am
When I got home yesterday, there were Currawongs wolf whistling. That usually is a sign of a significant weather change. Also, these birds hang only around here in the cooler months! I haven't heard them for months either. Very interesting.
Yes they wolf whistling is more pronounced around here this morning, , but unlike yours, have not left us this year, been hanging around all summer :? :? Interesting indeed :?
drewgon
Stratus
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:31 pm

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:06 am

Woke up this morning checked outside looked nice and clear.. Got in the shower.. Boom. What the heck was that anyhow.. After checking the radar seen a tiny little blob above us. Bucketed down in Nagambie good 15 - 20mm havnt checked the gauge yet as I left to work.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 868
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:12 am

whats the bet now i have put plants undercover that it all evaporates before it gets down this far? :D
drewgon
Stratus
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:31 pm

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:00 am

Mangalore Weather Station reporting 31mm since 8am
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1826
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:06 am

Going to be very hit or miss today. Could be 40mm or 0mm.

It'll be this way for another week with this tropical setup. As for this morning - the anti-rain forcefield is working well again here.
Jake Smethurst
Site Admin / Senior AWF Forecaster
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:11 am

The nature of these types of events I'm afraid Strato ... but it is promising to see storms develop so early.
drewgon wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:00 am
Mangalore Weather Station reporting 31mm since 8am
Not surprised! :D They'll be very slow moving all day so if one can manage to get underneath, flash flooding risk is high.

This is our map we put out yesterday (we'll have another update around midday).

Image
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:23 am

Didjman, yes noted currawongs yesterday, but after 2 wedge tailed eagles 🦅 hanging around a few times in the day, kinda made them insignificant...

Strato.. your turn will come, just think of all the weeds that didn’t grow.. :o
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Didjman
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Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:31 am

My Aws is showing 24c 62% humidity in Wallan
Jake Smethurst
Site Admin / Senior AWF Forecaster
Posts: 3583
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Location: Cheltenham

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:19 pm

Our updated chart for today - little change. Click for bigger.

Image
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 868
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:53 pm

I'm not holding my breath for this one...be pleasantly surprised though if anything does occur in this area
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Tempest
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 134
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:34 pm
Location: Warragul North, Vic... 140m asl

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:20 pm

Didjman wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:34 am
When I got home yesterday, there were Currawongs wolf whistling. That usually is a sign of a significant weather change. Also, these birds hang only around here in the cooler months! I haven't heard them for months either. Very interesting.
Yep, we had Currawongs here yesterday too for the first time in a while. They had a lovely feast in my pear tree :?

High country is getting a good soaking under those stationary storms atm. Looks like something brewing a bit closer over the Baw Baws now too.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:23 pm

Some decent convection occurring here right now. Very rapid development....

http://auswebcams.com/#gallery-20
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 354
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:46 pm

A lot of convection around here too with a cell developing just to the nw of here above Ballan.

Edit: booming thunder now😃
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Didjman
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Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:04 pm

That cell Adam looks very impressive from Tullamarine!!
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