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VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020

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Didjman
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VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020

Post by Didjman »

Welcome to the new thread! Models are suggesting a warming trend through the week with dangerous fire weather of Friday before a cool change. Melbourne is currently forecast for a top of 41C on Friday.
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by Sean »

With the recent rains, this warm spell feels less daunting, if not pleasurable (Thursday anyway).

The monsoon trough looks to persist all this week, bringing a lot more moisture overland, particularly in QLD. Hopefully something links up and pulls it this way.

Otherwise, a pretty tame 7 day outlook (apart from the spike in temps)
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by hillybilly »

Thankfully progs are tending to show the wind slackening as the hottest temperatures arrive around Friday. Still, very unpleasant temps with potential for yet another 45C day in the northwest (these used to happen about once every five years :? ), and 40C to low 40s south. Be pretty worried about the far west and far east where recent rain hasn’t been too good, so remains potential for fires to run :(

Signs that we could get a good rain event on the backside with deep tropical moisture streaming in. EC has near record or record high precipitable water values, approaching 60mm locally on Saturday.
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by StratoBendigo »

Any decent rain looks to be South of us again.

South Australia is likely to get a good drink which will be welcome and should continue to suppress extreme temps during Feb. Just got to get past this Friday first....
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by wolfcat »

BoM must be thinking the change is running late, the 4:20pm forecast now has Saturday as a hot one as well.

Thursday:37°C, Friday: 41°C, Saturday: 36°C for Melbourne.

Mildura on the other hand 42c 42c 40c over the same three day.
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by stevco123 »

StratoBendigo wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:07 pm Any decent rain looks to be South of us again.

South Australia is likely to get a good drink which will be welcome and should continue to suppress extreme temps during Feb. Just got to get past this Friday first....
I was out your way yesterday morning, and was actually shocked to see how dry it is that way. I couldn't believe it
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by Sean »

wolfcat wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2020 5:27 pm BoM must be thinking the change is running late, the 4:20pm forecast now has Saturday as a hot one as well.

Thursday:37°C, Friday: 41°C, Saturday: 36°C for Melbourne.

Mildura on the other hand 42c 42c 40c over the same three day.
BOM progging a stormy weekend though, so hopefully it's a classic warm spell followed by a stormy front.

Could easily downgrade this far out, but could upgrade just as easily at this point.
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by Tassiedave »

The site that I access the ACCESS-G model on seems to be stuck on last Friday's chart?
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by Didjman »

BoM seem confident this far out for next weekend:


Saturday 1 February
Summary:
Min 22 Max 36 A few showers. Possible storm. Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm Chance of any rain: 70%
Melbourne area
Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers. The risk of a thunderstorm. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

Sunday 2 February
Summary:
Min 15 Max 21 Shower or two. Possible storm. Possible rainfall: 0 to 8 mm Chance of any rain: 50%
Melbourne area
Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h tending west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.
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Re: Warming trend 27 - 31 Jan with dangerous fire WX 31 Jan

Post by hillybilly »

Friday looking cooler now. Hopefully that sticks ;) Still hot but not crazy hot.

Rainy weekend. Could be big falls, though models don’t agree on details. They are locally producing more than 100mm, but could be back near the SA border or central. Substantial tropical infeed, so just need the dynamics to hold up.
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by Tassiedave »

Launceston forecast for Friday is 37 degrees. Highest ever recorded temperature is 39.0 on 30/1/2009.
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by Sean »

The BOM have shied away, but there's the potential for some very big falls this weekend...

Really hoping it holds.
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by wolfcat »

Heat Health Alert has just been issued for Central, East Gippsland, Mallee, North Central, North East, Northern Country and West and South Gippsland weather districts
Friday 31st January 2020
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by StratoBendigo »

Sean wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:00 pm The BOM have shied away, but there's the potential for some very big falls this weekend...

Really hoping it holds.
It looks more and more like a Northern Territory/South Australia special. Southwest Vic to get the dreggs.
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by Tassiedave »

Models can't decide whether it's Tassie or Victoria that get the rain Saturday!
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Latest 06z GFS is keen on rain over Melbourne for hours on Saturday into Sunday early. But we all know what the mid 06z/18z updates are like ... :D

Still quite a dynamic setup, so will be interesting how the finer details play out. SW/Wimmera has been consistently progging well rain-wise, but lots of shifts occurring.

EC has downgraded significantly.
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by Gordon »

WATL has been remarkably consistent for this pattern for Saturday for 4 runs now, although after the last troughy system, I won't be banking anything until it's in the gauge!
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by StratoBendigo »

Still a whiff of hope in the GFS forecasts which pushes a fair bit of rain into Vic. I'm not that optimistic though.
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by Macca2395 »

Looking like a classic summer stinker on Friday.
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Re: VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX - 27 - 31 Jan 2020

Post by wolfcat »

39c tomorrow, 41 on Friday...

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Don't be surprised if tomorrow still gets to 40c for metro.
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