Yeah, my interpretation of the ol’ Skew-T is basic at best (I just look at the TT and LI values on the top right lol) but both indicate only somewhat unstable conditions. Time to play the waiting game.
GFS is doing its crazy tight gradient thing again. Don’t really believe it when it does that. Sure sometimes you go from 0 to 50mm in 100km, but chances that happens over three days is pretty low. EC, UK, CMC, ACCESS and ICON have hardly budged for days.Gordon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:57 pm Unbelievable divergence for us between 18Z GFS, and 18Z ACCESS and EC so close to D-Day(s). The former gives us about 10mm, the others 50-70mm .
Btw I've extended the date range out to Friday, as there doesn't appear to be any obvious break in the wet weather potential until then; mods obviously feel free to change again as you see fit
All changed GordonGordon - Unbelievable divergence for us between 18Z GFS, and 18Z ACCESS and EC so close to D-Day(s). The former gives us about 10mm, the others 50-70mm .
Btw I tried unsuccessfully to extended the date range out to Friday, as there doesn't appear to be any obvious break in the wet weather potential until then; mods obviously feel free to change if you see fit
Sounds fab! Thanks for the detailed forecast HB. Always good to read your posts.hillybilly wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:24 am Models not much changed today. Big wet slow moving storms. They look to peak in central areas. The trough will sit somewhere near a line from Swan Hill to Colac. Activity will be east of this line, and probably east of a line from about Geelong to Ballarat. Of course, could wiggle left or right. It’s very unstable east of that line with LI locally dropping to -5 to -6 this arvo which is intensely unstable. They fire from early arvo. Progs are showing local falls this arvo over 50mm, but always a bit hit miss.
Storms spread to widespread rain overnight and Monday Into Tuesday. There is a classic wrap around rain event with a deep elongated low near the Gippsland coast which drops to about 995hPa. It’s unusual to get a system like this in mid summer. The February 2005 system shows what is possible if you get a deep low tapping mid summer humidity. Thinking we could well get 100mm here next 96 hours, but the details will matter a lot.
Currently a tight clustering of the models with most showing 20-50mm for north/central increasing to 50mm plus through Gippsland. Potential for large falls in the Gippsland foothills. Progs have been showing falls locally over 150mm Westerns areas taper to dribbles as you head towards SA.