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Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

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Didjman
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by Didjman »

Will be interesting to see the BoM sounding for Melbourne airport for 2300Z when it gets put up around an hrs time:
http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/observat ... -diagrams/

Edit: Looks very marginal for Melbourne airport at the time the balloon went up - but things can change.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by Didjman »

Convection around here is starting to look chunky :D
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by weathergasm »

Didjman wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:16 am Edit: Looks very marginal for Melbourne airport at the time the balloon went up - but things can change.
Yeah, my interpretation of the ol’ Skew-T is basic at best (I just look at the TT and LI values on the top right lol) but both indicate only somewhat unstable conditions. Time to play the waiting game.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-24th Jan 2020

Post by Gordon »

Unbelievable divergence for us between 18Z GFS, and 18Z ACCESS and EC so close to D-Day(s). The former gives us about 10mm, the others 50-70mm :o .

Btw I tried unsuccessfully to extended the date range out to Friday, as there doesn't appear to be any obvious break in the wet weather potential until then; mods obviously feel free to change if you see fit :)
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by QldTwister »

Big Sun Mon coming up for much of the state lots of 15-30mm falls and a number will get 50-80mm for the event so someones about to get very wet

Think East Gippy Mallee and far SW will miss out but the rest will do well its gonna get wet

From drought to flood we go was always gonna happen Classic Aus

Nice out there today
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-24th Jan 2020

Post by hillybilly »

Gordon wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:57 pm Unbelievable divergence for us between 18Z GFS, and 18Z ACCESS and EC so close to D-Day(s). The former gives us about 10mm, the others 50-70mm :o .

Btw I've extended the date range out to Friday, as there doesn't appear to be any obvious break in the wet weather potential until then; mods obviously feel free to change again as you see fit :)
GFS is doing its crazy tight gradient thing again. Don’t really believe it when it does that. Sure sometimes you go from 0 to 50mm in 100km, but chances that happens over three days is pretty low. EC, UK, CMC, ACCESS and ICON have hardly budged for days.

Getting very chunky here now. Some of the clouds look like they could rain any second. Showers going up now just north of the Yarra Valley and the odd one in South Gippsland. Convection seems to be pushing west as expected. Today is always marginal, but will provide some cells to watch.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by Gordon »

Thanks HB, makes me feel a bit more confident, as does the latest BOM 4-dayer which keeps the low over Vic.

Also, Wednesday 10pm on the same chart looks impressive, with the lower pressure pushing well north just west of Vic, rather than the 'clipper' some charts are suggesting.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by Didjman »

We have a lot of CirroCu above us here :D Maybe the 1100Z for ML sounding will be more impressive than the last one.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by hillybilly »

Cells bubbling away just east of here. If the sea breeze drops out they will jump west.

GFS has a big upgrade. CMC and UK are also very wet, with 30-60mm central and falls approaching 200mm in the south facing hills in Gippsland. This event could be very big. It’s very rare to get a strong slow moving East Coast Low in Bass Strait in mid summer when ocean temperatures are approaching their peak. Each extra degree of warmth adds about 10% to rain potential. Water in Bass Strait is current a tad under 20C so pretty warm (though well short of records).
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by James »

is the sea breeze going to drop?...so far but so close those storms to the east!
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by weathergasm »

Somehow posted this twice, see below
Last edited by weathergasm on Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by weathergasm »

I think it’s highly unlikely the sea breeze is going to moderate to an extent that would allow those storms to creep into the suburbs. Today was always a very slight chance for storms in Melbourne, and once that sea breeze establishes itself it really kills off any chances for storms within its margins.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-20th Jan 2020

Post by hillybilly »

James wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:53 pm is the sea breeze going to drop?...so far but so close those storms to the east!
All over. Just not enough northerly in the synoptic flow today. Tomorrow is a lot better.

EC holding so all lined up now which is nice one day out :D
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Post by Rivergirl »

Gordon - Unbelievable divergence for us between 18Z GFS, and 18Z ACCESS and EC so close to D-Day(s). The former gives us about 10mm, the others 50-70mm :o .

Btw I tried unsuccessfully to extended the date range out to Friday, as there doesn't appear to be any obvious break in the wet weather potential until then; mods obviously feel free to change if you see fit :)
All changed Gordon :)
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Post by StratoBendigo »

Several forecast models have done a GFS and put us on the edge of deluge or nothing.

Unless there's water on the ground, I'm still skeptical. Especially after the last fail.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Post by hillybilly »

Models not much changed today. Big wet slow moving storms. They look to peak in central areas. The trough will sit somewhere near a line from Swan Hill to Colac. Activity will be east of this line, and probably east of a line from about Geelong to Ballarat. Of course, could wiggle left or right. It’s very unstable east of that line with LI locally dropping to -5 to -6 this arvo which is intensely unstable. They fire from early arvo. Progs are showing local falls this arvo over 50mm, but always a bit hit miss.

Storms spread to widespread rain overnight and Monday Into Tuesday. There is a classic wrap around rain event with a deep elongated low near the Gippsland coast which drops to about 995hPa. It’s unusual to get a system like this in mid summer. The February 2005 system shows what is possible if you get a deep low tapping mid summer humidity. Thinking we could well get 100mm here next 96 hours, but the details will matter a lot.

Currently a tight clustering of the models with most showing 20-50mm for north/central increasing to 50mm plus through Gippsland. Potential for large falls in the Gippsland foothills. Progs have been showing falls locally over 150mm :o Westerns areas taper to dribbles as you head towards SA.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Post by Tassiedave »

Really disappointed that we are missing out on this Monday/Tuesday event in Tassie. Desperately need rain. Last year was the second driest on record for Hobart, with only 385mm of rain falling compared with an average 612mm.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Post by Didjman »

Currently 15.4 / 14.6 C here with fog just dissipating as I type. Eagerly awaiting this arvo's action :D
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Post by Macedonian »

hillybilly wrote: Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:24 am Models not much changed today. Big wet slow moving storms. They look to peak in central areas. The trough will sit somewhere near a line from Swan Hill to Colac. Activity will be east of this line, and probably east of a line from about Geelong to Ballarat. Of course, could wiggle left or right. It’s very unstable east of that line with LI locally dropping to -5 to -6 this arvo which is intensely unstable. They fire from early arvo. Progs are showing local falls this arvo over 50mm, but always a bit hit miss.

Storms spread to widespread rain overnight and Monday Into Tuesday. There is a classic wrap around rain event with a deep elongated low near the Gippsland coast which drops to about 995hPa. It’s unusual to get a system like this in mid summer. The February 2005 system shows what is possible if you get a deep low tapping mid summer humidity. Thinking we could well get 100mm here next 96 hours, but the details will matter a lot.

Currently a tight clustering of the models with most showing 20-50mm for north/central increasing to 50mm plus through Gippsland. Potential for large falls in the Gippsland foothills. Progs have been showing falls locally over 150mm :o Westerns areas taper to dribbles as you head towards SA.
Sounds fab! Thanks for the detailed forecast HB. Always good to read your posts.
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Re: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-23rd Jan 2020

Post by Lucia »

I will second that, look forward to your Posts too :) :) :)
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