Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

[weathergasm]

Latest Melbourne Skew-T indicates Total Totals of 51 and a Lifted Index of -4.8, so very clearly a big jump in instability from yesterday (when the respective values were 40 and -0.2).

That said, the proximity of the trough to Melbourne makes me worry a bit. It could very well move over us before peak heating in the afternoon and result in a fizzer for the CBD and the suburbs (it’s happened before, many times). Here’s hoping it stays to the west.

[snowfall]

Models not much changed today. Big wet slow moving storms. They look to peak in central areas. The trough will sit somewhere near a line from Swan Hill to Colac. Activity will be east of this line, and probably east of a line from about Geelong to Ballarat. Of course, could wiggle left or right. It’s very unstable east of that line with LI locally dropping to -5 to -6 this arvo which is intensely unstable. They fire from early arvo. Progs are showing local falls this arvo over 50mm, but always a bit hit miss.

Storms spread to widespread rain overnight and Monday Into Tuesday. There is a classic wrap around rain event with a deep elongated low near the Gippsland coast which drops to about 995hPa. It’s unusual to get a system like this in mid summer. The February 2005 system shows what is possible if you get a deep low tapping mid summer humidity. Thinking we could well get 100mm here next 96 hours, but the details will matter a lot.

Currently a tight clustering of the models with most showing 20-50mm for north/central increasing to 50mm plus through Gippsland. Potential for large falls in the Gippsland foothills. Progs have been showing falls locally over 150mm Westerns areas taper to dribbles as you head towards SA.

Sounds fab! Thanks for the detailed forecast HB. Always good to read your posts.

Second that too! Always a great synopsis, HB.

[Didjman]

Latest Melbourne Skew-T indicates Total Totals of 51 and a Lifted Index of -4.8, so very clearly a big jump in instability from yesterday (when the respective values were 40 and -0.2).

Air will rise to 37000 ft from around 6000 ft going by the 1100z chart (a lot of Cape too, but forgotten my calculus to work it out - HB?)! The 2300 chart could be really interesting.

[Dane]

Another Day when I seem to be right on the boundary between the action and no action
just like last Wednesday when I got 5mm"s but not far to the West there was nothing and not far to my East
there was more than 20mm's .
Just have to wait and see. Still only 20mm MTD here.

[Didjman]

ML 2300z sounding is out: TT49, Li -7.6, Cape has increased and convection columns could rise from 6000 ft to the Tropopause at around 37000 ft (where winds are at around 40kts).

[Dane]

[quote=Dane post_id=114254 time=1579392785 user_id=87]
Another Day when I seem to be right on the boundary between the action and no action
just like last Wednesday when I got 5mm"s but not far to the West there was nothing and not far to my East
there was more than 20mm's .
Just have to wait and see. Still only 20mm MTD here.

Sebastopol PWS - https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBALLA16

[Horts]

Awesome stuff HB, great write up!

Unsure what to expect in Safety Beach today, hopefully we get a bit of action.

Beautiful on the beach at the moment though!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Ocean breeze just has a little chill on it recently @Torquay
500 ppl in the water are living the beach

[weathergasm]

Not looking good for Melbourne at this early stage. Sea breeze has come in and the trough appears to be in east Central.

STW issued lends credence to the above - the warning area is pretty far to the east of Melbourne. Things could change of course, but I’m skeptical

[stevco123]

Storms from a northeasterly direction. Hhmmm, not really happy about that. I'd say my storm watching day for today is over. By the time the action gets here it'll either be too dark or my southerly location will kill it. Mount Dandenong will shred the storms to bits. Will probably get as far as Ferntree Gully and that's it. The key is that damn Seabreeze

[hillybilly]

Not looking good for Melbourne at this early stage. Sea breeze has come in and the trough appears to be in east Central.

STW issued lends credence to the above - the warning area is pretty far to the east of Melbourne. Things could change of course, but I’m skeptical

Nah, all good. Steering is out of the north, perhaps even a little east of north. Convection will plow into the sea breeze and suck it up. Usually the sea breeze is an issue, but not with this steering.

25C here with a DP of 19C. Doesn’t get much more tropical for 560m in southern Vic. Our pool is currently at 29C

[Chritc]

Actually I think it's looking very good for Melbourne. The sea breeze is very weak so will aid with focus for initiation in the unstable environment. As the sea breeze begins to wash out storms will roll in to the burbs and the CBD late arvo. Steering becomes very slack which makes for some big dumpers later however cloud tops shearing from north to south may prevent fresh storm development if you are too far south from the point of initiation.

A watch and watch it remains but signs of the Seabreeze retreating down the peninsula already in the south east burbs. Outflow will also be a key trigger.

[Chritc]

Look for storm development around Wallan/Whittlesea in the next 30 mins. Development will be explosive.

[Didjman]

Look for storm development around Wallan/Whittlesea in the next 30 mins. Development will be explosive.

I am on location lol. Watching with interest!

[weathergasm]

I would love to be wrong:D

[Horts]

For what it's worth I'm on the bay right now and there is next to no breeze, extremely minimal. Flat as a tack.

[Didjman]

I can see from here that Healesville storm is backbuilding northwards.

[Chritc]

Didjman, looks like development closer to home now.

[Didjman]

Sloowly getting closer

[Didjman]

As HB said before, steering is from the NNE, so that line is slowly encroaching.