Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

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Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 322
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:38 pm

It has been brown here since October, very dry place Bacchus Marsh! Rain shadowed from the Otway, Brisbane and Macedon ranges. Avg rainfall is only 488mm.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 791
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:18 pm

Tas temps today: Ouse 27.5, Cressy 26.9, Wynyard 26.0, Launceston 24.5, Fingal 22.6, Devonport 20.9, Hobart 18.4
Lucia
Cumulus
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:08 pm
Location: Lilydale

Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:55 pm

Adam38 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:38 pm
It has been brown here since October, very dry place Bacchus Marsh! Rain shadowed from the Otway, Brisbane and Macedon ranges. Avg rainfall is only 488mm.
Interesting that about Bacchus Marsh, drive up the Western Hwy. frequently, didn't know you received so little rain. :| , not a good place to be relying solely on tank water then :|
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 620
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:57 pm

23c here today. It has greened up a lot here as well over the past couple of weeks and tanks are full, all of which is great for mid-summer. Whether it lasts will depend on how February plays out! Thankfully no sign yet of horrendous heat for the next week or so.

It stayed dry overnight here, so we finished up with 28mm for the event and 115mm MTD. Hopefully a bit more to come with this approaching front tomorrow and Thursday.
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 794
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Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:42 pm

BOM seem fairly confident on what are reasonable totals; 4-15mm wed and thur
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2330
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:47 pm

Sean wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:42 pm
BOM seem fairly confident on what are reasonable totals; 4-15mm wed and thur
10 to 30mm? (15 on each day?). I'm assuming from tomorrow night's tlrainband?
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:50 pm

90% chance of 20mm - 40mm tomorrow according the BOM.

Would be ideal!
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Didjman
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:11 am

Adam38 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:38 pm
It has been brown here since October, very dry place Bacchus Marsh! Rain shadowed from the Otway, Brisbane and Macedon ranges. Avg rainfall is only 488mm.
The Marsh also has big forested areas to its North and West. Not good on days like today!!
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hillybilly
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Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
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Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:07 am

Hot windy one today. Thankfully about half the state has just come off a big rain event. Contrast in rainfall is quite stark with parts of central having seen 50-100mm in the past week, while other spots only scored 5-10mm. Heard reports of just over 5mm around Deer Park, Cockatoo, southern Mornington Peninsula and southwest of Geelong so quite patchy for some :? . Down in Walkerville atm, and on the way down the area from the Dandenongs to South Gippsland Highway was sodden. In spots there was lots of water lying. Then dry til about Walkerville which got the wrap around and was signs of flash flood rainfall rates and 40mm in my gauge :D

Looks like a cracker of a system next 24 hours. Windy and hot today then a gusty change followed by a band of heavy rain. Models are really tight showing 10-25mm west, 20-60mm central then tapering to the east. Looks to peak near central, with models showing potential for heavy falls, in spots more than 50mm.

Very low pressures tomorrow and westerly gales. Will be quite a storm surge on the coast with significant erosion potential :o
Skywalker
Supercell
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Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:34 am

Horts wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:50 pm
90% chance of 20mm - 40mm tomorrow according the BOM.

Would be ideal!
At least they are not saying "near 100% chance of rain" and dropped our chances by 10%. :P

Sun didn't last long here with the cloud cover already rolling in.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Macedonian
Supercell
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Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:12 am

Adam38 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:38 pm
It has been brown here since October, very dry place Bacchus Marsh! Rain shadowed from the Otway, Brisbane and Macedon ranges. Avg rainfall is only 488mm.
A very harsh looking place to live if you like green.

I drove back from the beaches of Sydney last friday. 900km of brown, dessicated landscape, including the ususally green sthn highlands. Some places were so dry they were grey.

Came over the top of Mt Macedon in the last 1km of the 900km journey, turned into my driveway and booom! Emerald green as Ireland! We have been so lucky with the rainfall this month and the cooler weather lately.
Last edited by Macedonian on Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 791
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Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:13 am

Long way out but ACCESS G has a hot day next Thursday followed by a moisture feed from the NT.
Gordon
Supercell
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Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:34 am

Macedonian wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:12 am

A very harsh looking place to live if you like green. It's amazing that it was once considered a great place to grow veg and fruit commercially.
Still is. My wife has friends who grow top produce on the river flats of Bacchus Marsh which you can buy direct right on the Avenue of Honour :). I would hate people to think that was no longer the case! The secret is the alluvial soil not rain - they've always relied on irrigation from the Werribee system managed by Pykes Creek Res.

I remember in Uni Climatology learning that the plains just south of Bacchus Marsh were the driest part of Victoria outside the Mallee, largely due to the rain-shadowing Adam mentioned earlier.

Back on topic, and blowing a gale here. I will refrain from making any rainfall predictions after my last fail...
Macedonian
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Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:22 pm

That's good to know, Gordon. I haven't seen any BM branded produce for a long time. I had better edit my post.

Blowing a bit here as well, warm and stormy looking.
Macca2395
Cumulus
Posts: 69
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:11 pm
Location: Lancefield 495m

Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:35 pm

Very strong gusts here in Lancefield. Glad we had at least some rainfall over the weekend!
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:52 pm

Seems to be pretty good consensus for 15 mm here tonight. We shall see....
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hillybilly
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Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:55 pm

Wierd in South Gippsland with calm conditions on the beach at Sandy Point. Was gusty for a while then dropped right out. Wind change just gone through Cape Otway. Rain is behind the shallow surface change.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:09 pm

Some rather outlandish rain totals on some of the charts. It could get messy in the Eastern suburbs and bayside areas of Melb tomorrow. Brace yourself.
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Didjman
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:28 pm

29c here atm, with bara down to 996.7. Wild out there with the wind, and no radio / storm static.
Wilko
Supercell
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Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:25 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:09 pm
Some rather outlandish rain totals on some of the charts. It could get messy in the Eastern suburbs and bayside areas of Melb tomorrow. Brace yourself.
Unsure how seriously to take this as I am just getting over the last deluge 8-)
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