Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

[Jake Smethurst]

is that all for today, or is the conditions there for storms to form overnight?

Conditions remain favorable for further shower and thunderstorm development overnight, but it will be hit and miss so you'll have get lucky. There is still quite a lot of instability out there and convergence.

[Skywalker]

We were so lucky that we delayed our trip home from the island. Would of got caught in that brutal hail storm on the Monash.

[Dane]

Seeing some fairly frequent sheet Lightning from those storms just to my West and NW.
Thunder a bit louder now but it still looks like missing me.
Checked some PWS - 16mm's at Burrumbeet and 17 mm's at Lexton.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBALLA16

Edit - Storm only about 15kms away going by radar - Lightning about every 3 or 4 seconds.

[occluded]

Got walloped by that thunderstorm this afternoon, particularly in Warrandyte and Templestowe, whole streets with shredded trees and reports of large hail.

Attended to some smashed skylights and windows broken by almost sideways hail. Smashed car windscreen down at the LHQ as well (thankfully not mine!)

Back home just the usual overflowed gutters into the house, no major damage.

[nafets]

Surely that storm W of Ballarat has dumped 50mm. Could be much higher TBH. ACCESS R looking good for Melbourne metro rainfall tomorrow.

[StratoBendigo]

The storm cell near Lancefield has started a bushfire that's threatening property near Pastoria and Piper's Creek.

And still nothing at our place.

[Dane]

After more than 2 hours of Lightning and Thunder.
Not one drop of Rain at my place in Sebastopol.
The Airport got clipped by that storm and had 20mm.
Airport is 10 km to the NNW of me

[Chritc]

Area of convergence setting up north east of Melbourne. Look for storms redeveloping soon. Could be a decent nighttime show coming up.

[Dane]

Looks like heavy rain fell around Lake Burrumbeet about 20kms west of Ballarat
PWS on the north side of the Lake registered 97mm
Another one just to the west of the Lake over 200mm's

It's a PWS so sometimes they can overread but still pretty incredible

[Horts]

All over for central tonight, didn't get a drop!

Looks like the fire grounds are getting some wet stuff, good to see!

[93ben]

I went to Warrandyte to storm chase today and I'm glad I did. I left as soon as it started hailing though because I knew this thing was a monster. I was right in front of the purple area but left just in time. So no damage to my car.

Screenshot_20200119-154853_Weatherzone.jpg (1.04 MiB) Viewed 7725 times

[Horts]

BoM predicting 3mm here tomorrow, bit of a downgrade

[StratoBendigo]

Yep. Big downgrades across the board. Still no rain here either. Might scratch together 5-10mm if we're lucky. We're still living in a desert wasteland.

[Adam38]

Almost 20mm in the gauge from that storm yesterday evening

[hillybilly]

Amazing system out there with showers and storms spinning around multiple centres. The main circulation that will come into play will be just east of Melbourne mid arvo. You can see this nicely at 850hPa. Heavy rain will wrap in underneath into central and west central.

Some big falls next door to small ones. Impressed to see falls to near 50mm just east of Adelaide, and similar large falls locally across Vic. Expecting 20-40mm here today. Details matter a lot, so picking exactly where it will dump is tough. Tending to think there will be a convergence band tucked in just to the west of the low at 850hPa. That means somewhere in central area will get a period of heavy rain (as will the hills in South Gippsland).

Some heavier falls down in South Gippsland with nearly 20mm down near Walkerville in quick time this morning.

[StratoBendigo]

Good luck if you manage to get under a dumper like Yarrawonga just did - 22mm in past 30 minutes!

Meanwhile, all still very dry here. Might pick up something from the slow moving rain-band to our North...

[stevco123]

Developing overhead here. Clouds have got progressively darker in the last 30 minutes or so. Seems like it will dump soon

[stevco123]

Developing overhead here. Clouds have got progressively darker in the last 30 minutes or so. Seems like it will dump soon

...or maybe not anymore haha. Looks to be heading towards the Great Ocean Rd area.

Surprised to see the BoM predicting 100% chance of rain. I would have gone with 90%.

[snowfall]

Dark, foggy morning here and 16c. Will be interesting to see how the day unfolds. Looks like it will be raining in the Otway quite soon.

[Adam38]

NSW BOM have just issued a STW for areas on the VIC border so I should imagine VIC BOM will be issuing a STW soon.