Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

Moderator: Rivergirl

Forum rules
When posting photos, particularly in active breaking weather threads, please link to clickable photos to minimise download issues. For more information, see Posting Photo Guidelines for more information. Threads that are six weeks old or older will be Archived Here
Jake Smethurst
Site Admin / Senior AWF Forecaster
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:25 pm

James wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:55 pm
is that all for today, or is the conditions there for storms to form overnight?
Conditions remain favorable for further shower and thunderstorm development overnight, but it will be hit and miss so you'll have get lucky. There is still quite a lot of instability out there and convergence.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1614
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:05 pm

We were so lucky that we delayed our trip home from the island. Would of got caught in that brutal hail storm on the Monash. :o
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1461
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:22 pm

Seeing some fairly frequent sheet Lightning from those storms just to my West and NW.
Thunder a bit louder now but it still looks like missing me.
Checked some PWS - 16mm's at Burrumbeet and 17 mm's at Lexton.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBALLA16

Edit - Storm only about 15kms away going by radar - Lightning about every 3 or 4 seconds.
User avatar
occluded
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 580
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 3:26 pm
Location: Doncaster East 106m asl
Contact:

Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:49 pm

Got walloped by that thunderstorm this afternoon, particularly in Warrandyte and Templestowe, whole streets with shredded trees and reports of large hail.

Attended to some smashed skylights and windows broken by almost sideways hail. Smashed car windscreen down at the LHQ as well (thankfully not mine!)

Back home just the usual overflowed gutters into the house, no major damage.
nafets
Supercell
Posts: 1315
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 6:10 pm
Location: Ascot vale

Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:58 pm

Surely that storm W of Ballarat has dumped 50mm. Could be much higher TBH. ACCESS R looking good for Melbourne metro rainfall tomorrow.
Go the bombersss!
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1560
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:12 pm

The storm cell near Lancefield has started a bushfire that's threatening property near Pastoria and Piper's Creek.

And still nothing at our place.
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1461
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:37 pm

After more than 2 hours of Lightning and Thunder.
Not one drop of Rain at my place in Sebastopol.
The Airport got clipped by that storm and had 20mm.
Airport is 10 km to the NNW of me
Chritc
Cumulus
Posts: 44
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:59 am

Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:04 pm

Area of convergence setting up north east of Melbourne. Look for storms redeveloping soon. Could be a decent nighttime show coming up.
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1461
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:19 pm

Looks like heavy rain fell around Lake Burrumbeet about 20kms west of Ballarat
PWS on the north side of the Lake registered 97mm
Another one just to the west of the Lake over 200mm's

It's a PWS so sometimes they can overread but still pretty incredible
Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:03 am

All over for central tonight, didn't get a drop!

Looks like the fire grounds are getting some wet stuff, good to see!
93ben
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2011 12:28 am
Location: Templestowe, Victoria
Contact:

Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:41 am

I went to Warrandyte to storm chase today and I'm glad I did. I left as soon as it started hailing though because I knew this thing was a monster. I was right in front of the purple area but left just in time. So no damage to my car. :)
Screenshot_20200119-154853_Weatherzone.jpg
Screenshot_20200119-154853_Weatherzone.jpg (1.04 MiB) Viewed 520 times
Xtreme Weather Warnings Australia ⇦ Like my weather warning page to get the latest weather warnings from the BOM.
Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:51 am

BoM predicting 3mm here tomorrow, bit of a downgrade :(
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1560
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:41 am

Yep. Big downgrades across the board. Still no rain here either. Might scratch together 5-10mm if we're lucky. We're still living in a desert wasteland.
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 322
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:24 am

Almost 20mm in the gauge from that storm yesterday evening :D
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3339
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:27 am

Amazing system out there with showers and storms spinning around multiple centres. The main circulation that will come into play will be just east of Melbourne mid arvo. You can see this nicely at 850hPa. Heavy rain will wrap in underneath into central and west central.

Some big falls next door to small ones. Impressed to see falls to near 50mm just east of Adelaide, and similar large falls locally across Vic. Expecting 20-40mm here today. Details matter a lot, so picking exactly where it will dump is tough. Tending to think there will be a convergence band tucked in just to the west of the low at 850hPa. That means somewhere in central area will get a period of heavy rain (as will the hills in South Gippsland).

Some heavier falls down in South Gippsland with nearly 20mm down near Walkerville in quick time this morning.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1560
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:12 am

Good luck if you manage to get under a dumper like Yarrawonga just did - 22mm in past 30 minutes!

Meanwhile, all still very dry here. Might pick up something from the slow moving rain-band to our North...
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2330
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:47 am

Developing overhead here. Clouds have got progressively darker in the last 30 minutes or so. Seems like it will dump soon
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2330
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:41 am

stevco123 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:47 am
Developing overhead here. Clouds have got progressively darker in the last 30 minutes or so. Seems like it will dump soon
...or maybe not anymore haha. Looks to be heading towards the Great Ocean Rd area.

Surprised to see the BoM predicting 100% chance of rain. I would have gone with 90%.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 620
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:51 am

Dark, foggy morning here and 16c. Will be interesting to see how the day unfolds. Looks like it will be raining in the Otway quite soon.
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 322
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:59 am

NSW BOM have just issued a STW for areas on the VIC border so I should imagine VIC BOM will be issuing a STW soon.
Post Reply