Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

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weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 111
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Elwood home, CBD work

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:37 pm

Very, very glad to be wrong. Got absolutely pelted with 10 cent sized hail here in Box Hill for about 10 minutes. Spectacular.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 840
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:42 pm

Is it likely to continue after dark.???..have not had night time lightnings for a long time. Had steady rain but not enough to cause run off here...just distant booms...not as ferocious as what went north of here it seems
Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:43 pm

Skywalker wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:34 pm
Horts wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:32 pm
Heading my way!!

Hopefully holds course as it clips the bay to Safety Beach.

Just heard the first boom!!
Think that was the same boom I just heard!
Yeah it was, my old man just gave me a call from the Island and he heard it haha.

Looking like will miss here now sadly, might drive and watch it pass over the bay, bit worried about the car though?

Edit: Looks like the bay is killing it :(
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2330
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:47 pm

Yep, the bay just killed it. Activity has pretty much diminished within 10 minutes
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Jake Smethurst
Site Admin / Senior AWF Forecaster
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:50 pm

SC. wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:29 pm
Jake Smethurst wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:24 pm
Hook echo on the latest frame?
I reckon Reed Timmer would agree with that! ...and so would I.
I think so!! Will be interesting to see any reports out of that area. have seen plenty of large hail pics. Overall storm is weakening as it enters the bay.

P.S. just getting hail now here in Cheltenham, but less than 5 cent piece size (thankfully)!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Hawker
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 347
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:49 pm
Location: Castlemaine

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:50 pm

More lining up to the north for Melbourne
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1161
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:54 pm

Phew. Just edged north of us..lucky
19mm in 30 mins though
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 794
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:55 pm

Short but sweet. Big hail, some close booms, 5mm or so of rain then the bay destroyed it quick smart
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Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1662
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:56 pm

Sound recorder on - set and checked! Shes a comin!
Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:56 pm

Still a few rumbles out of this but in terms of rain I think the Peninsula will see hardly anything.

You win some you lose some..
Blackie
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 414
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:36 pm
Location: Elwood and Mansfield Victoria
Contact:

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:58 pm

Northern edge clipped Elwood but delivered dangerous hail, near golf ball sized. Lasted for 5 mins or so. Not seen hail of that size before!
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Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 322
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:01 pm

Bom have forecast 20-50mm for the outer western burbs tomorrow Melton/Bacchus Marsh area.
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Onetahuti
Supercell
Posts: 2690
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:37 pm
Location: Dandenong Nth.

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:02 pm

Some rain getting into fire areas of East Gippsland, mostly light so far apart from Omeo which is showing 29mm since 9AM.
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hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3339
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:06 pm

Quick 7mm here with hail to about a cm. Glad not to get the big stuff. Just passed our monthly average with 80mm MTD :D

Northern Dandenong did very well with falls around 20-25mm near Kalorama, eastern side of Mt Dandenong and Mt Evelyn. Falls are quite patchy with only a couple of mms south of here, while strip in the burbs from around Warrandyte to bayside has seen 20-30mm also.

Still lots of rumbles and should be stormy for a few hours yet. Rainy tomorrow, though picking the exact edge on the rain event is hard. Decent falls look to make it west to about Geelong to Bendigo, but could just as easily sit closer to Melbourne. Big falls out east.

Thursday’s system starting to look like a cracker also :D
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 794
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:15 pm

Bit of a thundery band emerging like the other day. Hoping it intensifies once over the range. If it starts training, totals could add up quite nicely
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1461
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
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Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:20 pm

Nothing here as mentioned earlier hopefully it will deliver tomorrow.
Interesting humid wind change though here not long ago.
At 4.45pm it was 31c dew point was minus 1c.
At 5pm wind had swung to the east Temp was 30c and Dew point was 14c.
Right now 27/14
Blackie
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 414
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:36 pm
Location: Elwood and Mansfield Victoria
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Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:22 pm

Sean wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:55 pm
Short but sweet. Big hail, some close booms, 5mm or so of rain then the bay destroyed it quick smart

About the same here. But the hail was quite incredible for a few minutes. Got a little footage but doesn't show how it really looked. The stones hurt when they got you!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqFQ880drD8
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2330
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:22 pm

To be honest I'm not liking the position of this system for now. Needs to be 100km more westerly for it to be a certain bet here. Watch and wait...
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:28 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:22 pm
To be honest I'm not liking the position of this system for now. Needs to be 100km more westerly for it to be a certain bet here. Watch and wait...
Agreed
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 794
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:32 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:22 pm
To be honest I'm not liking the position of this system for now. Needs to be 100km more westerly for it to be a certain bet here. Watch and wait...
I wouldn’t write it off just yet, a lot is building and filling in.
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