Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

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Horts
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:25 pm
Location: Safety Beach (Home) / Mount Waverley (Work) / Cowes (Beach House)

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:21 am

Absolutely putrid outside.

Driving to work visibility was down to around 50m at the back of Mornington on Peninsula Link.

Whole office stinks.
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 620
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:48 am

Smoky one here as well, although it sounds like it might be thicker further east. Currently 24c and DP 14.7c. Certainly feels humid out there. Not expecting any showers/storms to crop out here today, but tomorrow is looking interesting. One problem with the smoke haze is that it’s impossible to see whether any convection is happening.
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Didjman
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:53 am

Thats where satpic is handy ;)
Jake Smethurst
Site Admin / Senior AWF Forecaster
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Location: Cheltenham

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:28 am

Horribly disgusting out there! Shocking visibility earlier and the humidity is just making it feel even worse. Can't wait for these conditions to be gone (not likely until later tomorrow).

At least we have possible storms to keep us distracted over the next little while :)
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Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 791
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Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:32 pm

Smoke now in the Tamar Valley near Launceston. A warm 28.4 degrees.
Skywalker
Supercell
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Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:29 pm

Horrible, disgusting, filthy, dirty, smelly, disgracefully pathetic conditions out there (how did I go with that one?) :P
We were at Highpoint SC & the smoke has even made it's way in there. :o
It's certainly not much fun walking the dog & cycling to work at present (no choice there either, thanks to the current westgate tunnel works).
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:55 pm

Anything on tomorrow?
Storm chart looks great to the north.
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Supercellimpact
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2010 8:39 pm
Location: North Bendigo

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:57 pm

https://www.facebook.com/37383314596061 ... 38300/?d=n


Nice, Bendigo is right in the middle.
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occluded
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Doncaster East 106m asl
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:47 pm

GFS 00Z doesn't seem too interested in any storm action here for tomorrow, maybe a seabreeze killing it off? OCF has 13mm though so happy to be proven wrong.

Having said that, after today I'll take any non-Easterly wind we can get to blow this muck away. Two days off the bike in conditions which would otherwise be almost ideal, if not for the rubbish in the air :|

(Edited: to -> too)
Last edited by occluded on Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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hillybilly
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:14 pm

Hot humid one here today, and smoky. Has thinned a bit this arvo, but still about as bad as I’ve ever seen (outside of this summer).

Only sparse showers today up near the border. Tomorrow is when it starts to crank with widespread slow moving showers and storms. Anticipate it will initially focus in north central but spread southeast during the day and through the evening. Progs all showing locally heavy falls. Then days of showers and storms. GFs, EC and CMC allow showing multi day totals north of 50mm widepread and locally past 100mm. This is a pretty unusual event so has lots of potential to deliver substantial falls. At this point thinking we should get at least 80mm in the Nongs.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 791
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:17 pm

Tas temps today: Launceston 30.4, Cressy 30.4, Ouse 29.2, Sheffield 27.5, Devonport 24.3, Hobart 22.8, St Helens 19.1
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1560
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:39 pm

EC for Monday is ummm.... Bonkers.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 791
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:02 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:39 pm
EC for Monday is ummm.... Bonkers.
As in lots of rain StratoBendigo?
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 794
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:15 pm

Ready for this smoke to clear off. Felt okay most of the day, but by the end of it I had an irritated throat and eyes.

Anyone lucky enough to catch themselves under a storm over the next few days is in store for quite the deluge... :D
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:37 pm

Champing for a week,
This wasn't on the cards. Although I did pack one rain coat as it is Melbourne
Victoria,
Prefer no storms while in a tent.. thanks.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 840
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:49 pm

hmm I'll reserve my excitement until i actually see it happening, too many let downs in the past even though conditions have been ideal...some of the best storms or weather have been when it hasn't been predicted!
93ben
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Templestowe, Victoria
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Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:57 pm

Skywalker wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:29 pm
We were at Highpoint SC & the smoke has even made it's way in there. :o
It's certainly not much fun walking the dog & cycling to work at present (no choice there either, thanks to the current westgate tunnel works).
I was at Northland SC and there was smoke in there too! Then I saw a cyclist with a gas mask on!
Xtreme Weather Warnings Australia ⇦ Like my weather warning page to get the latest weather warnings from the BOM.
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hillybilly
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:10 am

Looks good for today. All models on board for widespread showers and storms (apart from far west). Should be big, wet and slow moving. As always will be winners and losers. Should fire up in west central to north central/Wimmera and move southeast during the arvo. Peaks over Melbourne late arvo.

Smoke is awful out there this morning. Hopefully today’s rain goes someway toward wetting down smoky forests out east :?
Dane
Supercell
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Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:49 am

Tracker already picking up some lightning to the far south of here just North of Cape Otway.
Cant see the clouds because of the Thick Smoke Haze.
Very dry around here - hope we get some Rain later
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 791
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:58 am

ACCESS-G AND GFS vary a bit on how Sunday/Monday will play out with the positioning of the LOW. Looking further ahead I might have to get the winter clothing ready for around 24/1 with a cold blast coming up from the south.
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