Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

Moderator: Rivergirl

Forum rules
When posting photos, particularly in active breaking weather threads, please link to clickable photos to minimise download issues. For more information, see Posting Photo Guidelines for more information. Threads that are six weeks old or older will be Archived Here
Post Reply
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2096
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:22 pm

Had to get this one going as the later part of the date range especially, looks really interesting.

Warm but fairly settled at first, then rain creeping into central and eastern Vic from Wednesday onwards. East looks the main beneficiary, though trough 'wiggle' on this is constantly changing and shifting rain east or west accordingly. Discuss :).
jmw2207
Cumulus
Posts: 97
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:33 pm
Location: East Bendigo

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:06 pm

Yep, hoping it dumps over the east and stop the bush fire madness. Need the models to ramp up in the coming days.
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 786
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:20 pm

Dynamic looking synopics over the next week. Give it some tropical infeed and it'll go off somewhere
Skywalker
Supercell
Posts: 1610
Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:03 am
Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:02 pm

Just for a change I'm actually hoping it misses us completely here in the west, as my roof requires urgent repair work to be done.
The east can have it all this week! :D
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 786
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:17 pm

Tas temps today: St Helens 25.4, Eddystone Point 22.9, Launceston 22.6, Friendly Beaches 22.2, Scottsdale 21.7, Hobart 19.1
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3326
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:51 am

Looks really promising this sequence, and lots of days to watch. First general showers and storms look like occurring on Tuesday, then much more widespread on Wednesday. They return generally later in the week. Details for how the event finishes are messy, but progs are playing with a deep easterly trough cutting off into a slow deep cutoff low. LI go negative on every day from Tuesday to Saturday across Vic so will be something on everyday.

Wednesday looks like the first classic storm day in a long while. Deep moisture, very unstable and good steering out of the northwest which will allow convection to build near the ranges and then move south into the sea breeze. All models showing locally heavy falls.
User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1658
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:22 am

I am hoping for some of this with heaps of rain to avoid further fires:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Cyel8 ... jsrxn23Ibl
(Slomos of old vid I shot on various cameras).
Enjoy (might ease some of the SDS)!
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 786
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:28 am

Could heavy rain over burnt out areas of land cause further problems with erosion of creeks and river beds?
User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1658
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:35 am

Tassiedave wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:28 am
Could heavy rain over burnt out areas of land cause further problems with erosion of creeks and river beds?
That's one of the fears, with ash even getting in to water catchments :(
flyfisher
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 198
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:39 pm
Location: Belgrave

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:38 am

Ash in water removes O2 which kills fish. There is often large fish kills when heavy rain falls on the catchments that have been extensively burnt. This will happen again for most East Gippsland rivers and some NE rivers such as the Buffalo, Upper Mitta, upper Murray rivers. Fisheries will need to restock those areas after the catchments stabilise.

In the long term the rivers usually bounce back stronger due to increased nutrients. My favorite rivers (Kiewa, Goulburn and West Gippsland rivers) are not significantly impacted so far so hoping rain will prevent those areas becoming extensively burnt.
Dane
Supercell
Posts: 1458
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:59 pm

Looks a bit marginal for here. Wednesday looks the best chance for any storms.
Should be better further east so lets hope they get a good drink in the fire areas
and that lightning doesn't trigger any more fires.
Only had 33mm's of Rain since November 11 so could use some now.

.
Tassiedave
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 786
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:27 pm

Tas temps today: Launceston 27.8, Cressy 26.5, Ouse 25.8, Fingal 24.6, Wynyard 23.6, Hobart 23.3, St Helens 20.1
QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:33 pm

My Fav Ely dips, they are the best and a long duration event to, over a week for Qld and NSW
Much of the weather will be east of Echuca and Melb looking great for all the Fires in E Vic, NSW and eastern Qld.

Storms along the ranges Tues N of Melb
Melbs best chance Wednesday classic surface based storm day
Thurs Fri E and NE Vic we cool SElies, dry west
Sat Sun Mon comes back to central Vic

West Vic mostly miss out till maybe weekend
East of Echuca Melb looking Really Good
East NSW and NE Vic awesome week coming up days of Thunderstorms

Looking forward to 3 days of low 30s Cumlus Showers, Stroms and humidity.

Yay :D
Bring on the heat and stroms
User avatar
hillybilly
Senior Moderator
Posts: 3326
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Ferny Creek 560m and Walkerville 100m
Contact:

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:07 am

Progs still promising, though jumpy for the second part.

Fine or nearly fine today but murky. Smoke has rolled in here at a Walkerville after a crystal clear early morning :( We are about 200km away from them, so must be just awful nearby. We’ve got a water tank full of water which is undrinkable. Would guess the same for almost every household in Victoria and NSW reliant on tank water. Using bottled water which isn’t exactly cheap or environmentally friendly :( Apparently about 800,000 people in Victoria and NSW use water tanks as their main source of water :o

First isolated showers and storms start tomorrow. Wednesday looks like the peak for storms for the first part.
flyfisher
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 198
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:39 pm
Location: Belgrave

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:49 am

Looks like smoke rolled in overnight above the inversion. The tops of the Dandenongs have heavy smoke but it's relatively clear below that. Sky is red/brown with smoke overhead but no too bad at ground level. That will probably mix as the day goes on although the smoke is reducing the solar gain so the inversion may hang around for a while.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1558
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:49 am

Looks like a lottery. GFS is very enthusiastic about Wednesday night rain. The Canadian forecast goes big for the weekend/early next week. EC not interested in anything much here.

Could get 2mm. Or 100mm in the next week...
stevco123
Supercell
Posts: 2322
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:50 pm

Smoke definitely the thickest it's been so day, with this stiff nor-easter
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 317
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:49 pm

Very smoky out there now... the Air Quality index locally has jumped from 120 to 392 over the last hour.
tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:49 am

Smokey here in Doveton, Ap says 504. Time to get the mask on.
93ben
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 546
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2011 12:28 am
Location: Templestowe, Victoria
Contact:

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:59 am

The air quality is now hazardous in Box Hill and other suburbs! It's terrible out there!
Xtreme Weather Warnings Australia ⇦ Like my weather warning page to get the latest weather warnings from the BOM.
Post Reply