weathergasm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:33 pm
Even though the major climate drivers are neutral, there is a time lag of course before the effects become apparent.
Yep, atmospheric inertia is a real thing. That said, the latest 4 day synoptic chart on the BOM website shows the monsoon trough finally making landfall in a line from Broome to Darwin on 6/1/2020. This is the same monsoon trough that has brought significant flooding to Jakarta, so it could well be the circuit breaker we need.
The waters off the NW are very warm, so there is moisture available. Honestly, it's just sitting there taunting us. Because even though it's there, everything has been against us pattern/driver wise, meaning it falls everywhere but here!
Right now, we're counting on the monsoon trough. If that develops, hopefully all that moisture will start pouring over the continent.
For us in the SE, we might be in luck given the relatively weak high pressure ridge, because if the monsoon trough does develop and does start drawing that moisture inland, fronts and troughs that pass though will have a lot of juice.
But yeah, the next 2 weeks are a real concern, because the whole of Australia is desperate, perhaps more desperate then we've ever been in modern times