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Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

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hillybilly
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Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by hillybilly »

Another surge of heat coming up for Friday west/central and east Saturday. The peak heat comes through overnight on Friday night into Saturday morning which spares most of Vic from another low/mid 40s day, but it looks bad for Gippsland and the northeast where extreme heat surges south for Saturday. If you are out that way, keep a close eye on the official forecasts as this looks very bad :(

Upper trough then slowly builds through the weekend with a band of showers or rain. Quite a split on where this will sit, with GFS , UKMO and CMC showing solid falls east of a line from about Horsham to Geelong/Melbourne, while EC keeps decent falls mainly near the border. Fingers and toes crossed that this one delivers some desperately needed rain.

Perhaps more rain next week. Hopefully something comes soon :?
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by hillybilly »

Talk of a Code Red for southern NSW and possibly adjacent parts of Victoria on ABC :( Progs not much changed. Front on Saturday looks to move through Melbourne around 8am so we dodge a very hot day. Further east sees the front later :(

Split on progs for rain continues.
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by StratoBendigo »

I don't think we'll get much here on the weekend. January 10 onwards might be more promising.
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by chasersaddict76 »

Next system Friday 10th will be Quick short cold weather
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by WeatherViewer »

chasersaddict76 wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:26 am Next system Friday 10th will be Quick short cold weather
Looking that way, still a fair way out. Let's see if it holds!
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by Tassiedave »

Latest BOM forecast for Melbourne not keen on much rain over the next week.
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by Dane »

Hardly any rain forecast here for the next week.
Just 6.9mm's for December here in Sebastopol - Ballarat Airport had 5.4mm's for the month.
Ballarat Airport had 551mm's for the Year - Ave 687mm 7 of the last 8 years have been below average.
I only moved here on 8-3-19 but still had more Rain than the Airport - 604.9mm's since then.
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by Sean »

The lack of rain in the forecast is unnerving. It means these fires are going to rage indefinitely.
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by Didjman »

Sean wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:41 pm The lack of rain in the forecast is unnerving. It means these fires are going to rage indefinitely.
I saw a live cross to Jonathon How from the BoM who said they are not expecting any real rain for at least the next 2 weeks in SE OZ

Even though the major climate drivers are neutral, there is a time lag of course before the effects become apparent.
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by weathergasm »

Even though the major climate drivers are neutral, there is a time lag of course before the effects become apparent.
Yep, atmospheric inertia is a real thing. That said, the latest 4 day synoptic chart on the BOM website shows the monsoon trough finally making landfall in a line from Broome to Darwin on 6/1/2020. This is the same monsoon trough that has brought significant flooding to Jakarta, so it could well be the circuit breaker we need.
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Re: More heat then some rain? January 2-5

Post by Sean »

weathergasm wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:33 pm
Even though the major climate drivers are neutral, there is a time lag of course before the effects become apparent.
Yep, atmospheric inertia is a real thing. That said, the latest 4 day synoptic chart on the BOM website shows the monsoon trough finally making landfall in a line from Broome to Darwin on 6/1/2020. This is the same monsoon trough that has brought significant flooding to Jakarta, so it could well be the circuit breaker we need.
The waters off the NW are very warm, so there is moisture available. Honestly, it's just sitting there taunting us. Because even though it's there, everything has been against us pattern/driver wise, meaning it falls everywhere but here!

Right now, we're counting on the monsoon trough. If that develops, hopefully all that moisture will start pouring over the continent.

For us in the SE, we might be in luck given the relatively weak high pressure ridge, because if the monsoon trough does develop and does start drawing that moisture inland, fronts and troughs that pass though will have a lot of juice.

But yeah, the next 2 weeks are a real concern, because the whole of Australia is desperate, perhaps more desperate then we've ever been in modern times
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by StratoBendigo »

The past 3 years for NSW have been worse than the 1900-1902 Federation drought. Similar 3 year rain total here in fact:
1900 - 530mm
1901- 391mm
1902 - 343mm

2017 - 526mm
2018 - 388mm
2019 - 327mm
Annual average is around 540mm.

Sunday sees a big drop in temps. We might even struggle to get to 20c!
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by stevco123 »

I think we'll struggle to get up in temperature today. Feels like a 5am sunrise here at the moment with all the smoke. Definitely getting worse and moving North as was in Wantirna South half hour ago and there was no smoke there. When i came back to cranbourne the smoke had noticebly got worse and is now well and truly blocking the sun

UPDATE 9:40: Smoke is now very thick and sun is barely visible. Like a foggy winter day. Ain't gonna be no 33 degree day down here at this rate
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by Skywalker »

I'm down at Red Rocks Beach Cowes & the smoke haze is terrible. No sun at all. 😕
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by Horts »

Covered in thick smoke down on the peninsula, can't see Arthurs Seat from Safety Beach. Stinks.
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by Sean »

Very smoky. Was expecting haze, but it’s so smoky I can almost taste it. Comfortable temps though and quite calm
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by Adam38 »

Very thick haze now moving into town here, a fire has also broken out about 15kms to the north at Dales Creek, Firetrucks are racing up the western fwy.
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by snowfall »

I can see the heavy smoke haze over Melbourne from here. It has stayed clear all day here with a northerly breeze, but that has also meant the temps climbed. Reached 36c just a moment ago, with a DP of 2c. It will be a very warm night ahead.
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Could see the smoke on the sat pic this morning..
None here FTG. Thank goodness
But very dry heat...
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Re: Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Post by hillybilly »

Smokey but uneventful day in the Nongs with low 30s maxima. Just another typical day in this long hot dry summer :roll:

Thankfully the front is very early for us tomorrow (around 8 or 9am), though that means further east gets it late morning/early arvo with worsening fire weather the further north/east you go :(

Progs upping rainfall totals a spilling it into central areas and the northwest. Most models now show 5-15mm east central, and 10-50mm for a line from about the Mallee to about Sale. A small tweak left/right could significantly up totals or drop them away. The rain comes in two bursts - a showery band on Sunday morning, then a more extensive band on Monday. I'm not confident for FC, but hopefully that we might get 10mm which will be so welcome at this point :?
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