Victoria - More heat and then some rain? - January 2nd to 5th 2020

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Tassiedave
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:46 am

19 degrees here in Launceston and sadly no rain. We have had only 15mm in the last 60 days.
Hobart is 21.8 degrees. Nearly 8 degrees warmer than Melbourne!!
Last edited by Tassiedave on Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Adam38
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:05 pm

A nice 7mm in the gauge this morning, drizzling heavily atm.
Gordon
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:44 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:13 pm

Progs upping rainfall totals a spilling it into central areas and the northwest. Most models now show 5-15mm east central, and 10-50mm for a line from about the Mallee to about Sale.
Nice call from way back on Friday HB! I wasn't at all confident but it is turning into a useful day here with drizzle persisting after our 6mm earlier. I'd forgotten what a puddle looks like :).

If we can score a little more by tomorrow, then some on Friday, that would be great. The main thing of course will be watching east & alpine. It's started at least, with Buller and Bairnsdale both on 1mm.
tonycynic
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:54 pm

Will that 63.3 temp recorded in Cabramurra count as a record or get removed as an outlier?
stevco123
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:10 pm

tonycynic wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Will that 63.3 temp recorded in Cabramurra count as a record or get removed as an outlier?
And that 49 in Mallacoota...
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Gordon
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:17 pm

tonycynic wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Will that 63.3 temp recorded in Cabramurra count as a record or get removed as an outlier?
It won't count.
Sean
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:25 pm

Do they collect fire-related heat readings? Sure gives us some idea of what firemen are dealing with
Dane
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:39 pm

Much cooler today just 10.9c on my PWS at the moment 1.35pm. Highest so far 11.8c.
2.2mm's of rain here this morning - fine and cloudy now.
Temperatures recorded from ambient heat in bush fires do not count in official records.
Macedonian
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:07 pm

Netatmo PWS map half an hour ago.
At 6C i'm easily the lowest on the mainland. it feels so weird after all of the recent heat.
Pretty nippy in the Adelaide Hills as well.
Screenshot_2020-01-05-13-57-31.png
Screenshot_2020-01-05-13-57-31.png (213.58 KiB) Viewed 569 times
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hillybilly
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:30 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:10 pm
tonycynic wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:54 pm
Will that 63.3 temp recorded in Cabramurra count as a record or get removed as an outlier?
And that 49 in Mallacoota...
It will stay in the official database but with an error flag which indicates it’s not an accurate measure of the “weather”. It won’t be a new record. Unfortunately, Cabramurra almost certainly set a new legitimate high temperature record around 33C just prior to the fires but expect that will be lost because the data then went bad as the fire went through. You can’t tell exactly when the station when from measuring the atmospheric temperature to something which was influenced by nearby fires.

Up to 8mm here now. Mostly stopped. Was expecting around 2-5mm here for the first bit so very happy. Tank which I emptied yesterday on the back of the EC forecast is full again :D Good when you make those bets and they pay off ;)

Rain should start to edge south later tonight for our second shot in central. Hope to double the total or more. With a bit of luck this rain will really settle down the northeast fires, though suspect Far East Gippsland will stay a bit too rainshadowed.

Btw some places inland in WA/SA/NT have had as much rain in the last 36 hours as the whole of last year.
Jake Smethurst
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:31 pm

Just 3mm here thus far, but better than nothing! :)

As HB mentioned, will shift south a bit tonight and then back over fire zones tomorrow.

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StratoBendigo
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:22 pm

Just a couple of mm today, hoping for more.

Current temp is 13c and our max so far is 15.2c. It could end up as our coldest January day at the current AWS site (16.0c on 31/1/2016). Note that 5/1/1991 recorded a 14.1c max at the old prison site just before it was decommissioned. So potentially a 1 in 30 year event as far as a Low Max Temp is concerned.
Sean
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:18 pm

SAM has made this the most diametric start to summer I can remember. Extreme heat, chilly temps, extreme heat, chilly temps. But despite the chilly temps, Melbourne still ended December slightly above average, which shows just how hot it got at times. But now that the tropics are showing activity, hopefully the lack of rainfall is about to change.

The atmosphere above the timor and nearby seas is stewing: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
James
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:37 pm

Well its certainly been a weird season, everything in the garden is a month or two behind where it should be.

I also cant recall such a quiet storm season, we are yet to have a proper thunderstorm here or humidity break...as i have said before i remember having this at least a few times in december any other year...

I also remember most seasons having to continually put protection over the tomatos due to the severe storm warnings which havent really happened except once this season.

First we wondered where summer went, then it came big time, then we wondered where the moisture and storms went...will it now turn and we get lots of rain and storms/tropical weather next?
Gordon
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:43 pm

Sean wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:18 pm
SAM has made this the most diametric start to summer I can remember. Extreme heat, chilly temps, extreme heat, chilly temps. But despite the chilly temps, Melbourne still ended December slightly above average, which shows just how hot it got at times. But now that the tropics are showing activity, hopefully the lack of rainfall is about to change.

The atmosphere above the timor and nearby seas is stewing: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
BOM are suggesting a cyclone may form off NW Australia early in the week.

And re those rollercoaster summer temps (and Bendigo today) some very low maximums in the north-west: Charlton & Hopetoun 15.5C; Walpeup 15.2C. Must be up there (down there?) for a Jan record?
Macedonian
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:53 pm

Cold day here, would not have been out of place in late August.
5.9C min to 7.5C max
8mm of lovely rain.
Last edited by Macedonian on Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
snowfall
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:55 pm

Reached just 12.6c today. We even had to have the heating on! Though it’s nice to have a break from raging hot weather. Radar is showing rain edging slightly south. Hopefully it moves well into central areas to add a bit more rain to this morning.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:03 pm

Cold. Need a few jackets.
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hillybilly
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Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:10 pm

Macedonian wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:53 pm
Cold day here, would not have been out of place in late August.
5.9C min to 7.5C max
8mm of lovely road.
Crikey that’s chilly. We maxed out a 10.3C. Would guess about a one in ten years chill for us. It’s certainly pretty notable for January. Rain cleared during the arvo and allowed it to pop up a bit.

Really wierd airmass as the air above the surface was very dry and chilled as rain fell through it and evaporated. It may well of snowed very briefly around the tops of Bogong and Hotham but as the rain continued it warmed up rapidly (which I guess is the injection of increasingly tropical air from the northwest with warm air advection). Hotham went from a peak of 27C yesterday to 2C with precious and is now back up to around 10C.

The next shot of rain is rapidly developing in eastern SA and racing southeast. The upper trough is sharpening up and pushes through tomorrow. With predictable water values around 30-40mm it’s got plenty of moisture to play with. Expecting some solid falls by morning.
Tassiedave
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Location: Grindelwald Tasmania

Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:20 pm

Tas temps today: Campania 24.1, Cressy 24.0, Ouse 23.5, Wynyard 23.0, Hobart 22.9, Launceston 22.3, Sheffield 21.5, Devonport 19.9
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