VIC - Dec 23-31 2019 - Warming up with a strong front to end the Year

[93ben]

Feel like radar is over estimating, we had a nice green and yellow patch over us and had F all. Hopefully not the same for the fire effected areas

I feel the radar is picking up the smoke too. Probably the reason why you are ending up with nothing.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Cooled off nicely with windows open for a few hours,
Woken with flashes of light and a mad dash to close @4am
Split and went past us, was some tingly sounds for a few seconds as it past,
Ready for the next one now..
this is the moment I had waited for yesterday, for Monday to be over and sitting in my arm chair Tuesday am,
More prepared every fire threat that arises.
And power lines down just a reminder my ideas of exit could easily change quickly...

[hillybilly]

Good riddance to yesterday. Felt to me like the worst fire day since 2009, though not sure if that was supported by the data. The combination of everything baked dry by preceding heat, gusty winds and high temperatures coupled with numerous fires already burning. Progs picked it a week out, which does mean you have a long period of foreboding as it approaches Makes it hard to enjoy the nice days when you can see an awful one approaching...

3mm at home in FC, and 1mm in Walkerville. Quite a few rumbles, but all fast moving and high based. Typically end of heatwave storms which largely evaporate before they reach the ground, and are small and fast. Looks to be shifting east now and weakening. Was hoping for 5-10mm, so good to gets something but bit disappointing. Few spots topped 5mm in bands west and east of the CBD, and in parts of south Gippsland but haven’t seen anything about 10mm.

New thread time. Thankfully the next system is cooler, and should bring some rain. Looks like the main focus for rain will be the eastern third of Vic where they really need it, but hopefully it gets shared around. Could be nasty ahead of it in southern NSW and bordering Vic on Saturday which gets a tongue of hot air.

[Tassiedave]

Tas rainfall overnight: Mt Morriston 14mm, Lake Leake 12mm, Deloraine 10mm, Friendly Beaches 8.8mm, Devonport 6.2mm, Launceston 6mm, Hobart 3.4mm

[Gordon]

Great summary HB, and good to see those half decent Tassie falls. We also ended up with 3mm exactly, making our December total an underwhelming 10mm. Coupled with the temp plummeting to 10C, it's freshened up the garden and the green patches in the paddocks, so we'll take it.

Hard to believe we're in the same state as the eastern third. That new fire NW of Corryong looks bad (still almost 30C there!) as well as the regular suspects in East Gippsland of course.

[Macedonian]

4mm in the gauge. Foggy and 8C now.
So much better than yesterday.

[stevco123]

Mallacoota shot up to 49 degrees at 8am as that fire bears down on them.

Surely that wouldn't go towards an official record?

[Tassiedave]

The images and videos coming out of Mallacoota are horrifying. I feel for the people trapped in this fire emergency.

[Sean]

Mallacoota shot up to 49 degrees at 8am as that fire bears down on them.

Surely that wouldn't go towards an official record?

Was the weather station on fire?

[Jake Smethurst]

Was woken up by some rain and thunder overnight, haven't heard that on the roof for a while, just goes to show how dry it's been!

Regarding the fires, a relative of mine lives in Clifton Creek. Their property was ablaze last night from one of the significant fires (which was spotting ahead). They had listened and evacuated earlier after advice from the emergency services the day prior and were monitoring via security cameras from Bairnsdale. At one point last night they thought the house was on fire but it appears it has somehow survived. The flames were only metres away. Their neighbors were unfortunately not so lucky. Just horrible some of the reports coming out of East Gippsland at the moment.

[stevco123]

More possibly disastrous news from Corryong with a major fire just on its doostep. And once the wind change goes through today and swings the wind from the south west, that will be one LARGE fire front

[snowfall]

Those fires out east look terrible, as well as on the south coast of NSW. The rain radar is showing the big smoke plumes, especially on the NSW coast.

Had a thunderstorm around 1am last night, then woke up to some further big booms of thunder during the night. The rain sounded quite heavy on the roof at times, but only totalled 4.4mm. That brings us up to a fraction under 10mm for the month, very much below average. Average maximum for the month was 24.7c, which is about 1.5c above average despite the cool start to the month, and average minimum was 10.6c, just slightly above average.

We've had 608mm for the year, which is around 100mm below average. We had 4 months of above average rainfall (May, June, August, November) and the rest below. April was the worst, with only 7mm, and June the best, with 128mm. A strange year I think, somewhat Mediterranean, starting with extreme dryness and heat, shifting to about 6 months of wet (August had 22 days of rain and even a snow day!), and ending with extreme dryness and heat again. Hoping 2020 delivers something a bit more regular in terms of rainfall. The MJO is forecast to be in the Maritime continent from about the 7th January, so it will be interesting to see what happens in terms of rain events during the phase.

[Jake Smethurst]

Just some damage of the fires from relatives place. So lucky house made it.

https://twitter.com/JakeSmethurst3/stat ... 35169?s=20

[Wilko]

Hi guys
5mm here
Please stay safe especially if you are heading to the coast for holidays.
Abnormal fire behavior may force us to rethink the point of life vs property

[hillybilly]

Mallacoota shot up to 49 degrees at 8am as that fire bears down on them.

Surely that wouldn't go towards an official record?

No. It’s a legitimate ob but not a true measure of the weather/climate conditions at large. Gelantipy AWS also had a fire move through. The sites are both in open grassy area so fire would have been rapid and quite low. The AWSs typically top out at 60C so it’s pretty likely it went briefly higher than 49C but observations stopped.

There have been a couple of previous fire events burning through AWSs in Tasmania. I can’t recall it happening in Vic before. Im pretty sure it happened to a tropical site also.

We finished in 3.6mm after catching a late shower. December finished on 20mm, so about 80mm below average

Horrific conditions to our east. Basically every coastal location from east of about a Lake Entrance to near Wollongong affected directly or indirectly. I’ve seen fires before, but these have gone on for months and just keep going and spreading

[Tassiedave]

Forecast for Melbourne Friday is 35 degrees yet to me the models/charts look similar to Monday this week. Why aren't the temperatures pushing into the 40s in Melbourne?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

New Thread, ?
What's the go Friday Saturday ?
We're missing someone