VIC - Dec 23-31 2019 - Warming up with a strong front to end the Year

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StratoBendigo
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Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:53 pm

Yet more stinking hot weather for the last weekend of 2019, but potentially a strong cold front with rain to end the Year. Definitely something to keep an eye on...
Sean
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Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:34 pm

Just noticed the two 40s in the Melbourne forecast... Are you kidding me?

Why can't it be an enjoyable 33 or 34? Sick of this roller coaster.
StratoBendigo
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Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:02 pm

Monday 30th Dec has very strong NWlys and 40c+ across much of the State on most forecast models. Looks atrocious.
Wilko
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Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:41 pm

Yep
Sean
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Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:23 pm

Alice Springs has had 4 days above its December heat record so far (which stood for almost 5 decades) and has the chance to beat it again 2 to 3 more times judging by the forecast.

Lots of records falling around the interior. Many places are running 4c+ above average, so there's a lot of heat available to waft down here.

For a moment there I figured Victoria would see a below average year, but most of northern Vic is running above average and a lot of southern Vic is slowly creeping up despite SAM.

The only 'below average' we're guaranteed these days is bloody rainfall :x
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hillybilly
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Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:21 am

Another nasty spell coming up, for a state that is fast baking off :( Friday and Sunday don’t look to bad in southern areas (mainly 30s) but 40s widespread in the north. Mostly light winds, becoming southerly on the coast. Saturday looks hot everywhere, but not too much wind.

Monday looks downright nasty. 40s almost everywhere, very dry air and high winds. Looks like a blustery front sometime during the arvo, then some rain overnight.

There is barely any variation across the progs, which is extraordinary for something 5-7 days out. It suggests the whole sequence is highly predictable. Around five of the next seven days are going to see national Australian mean temperatures above the previous record from 2013 so the source of heat is very large :(
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Didjman
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Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:15 am

Merry Christmas all! Going by Access G and BoM 4 day synoptic, the change will go through late Sunday night and will be quite weak. We may not see the bad fire weather Monday (fingers crossed re fire wx).
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hillybilly
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Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:50 am

Happy Xmas all. Shame we don’t have a 1988 or 2006 Christmas Day in store :( (yeah showing my age :P ).

Progs eased back a bit. Also, looks like the odd shower or storm a chance in the north and east on Saturday and Sunday and later on Monday. Monday’s front is flattening out so will be hot but winds are winding back. Thank goodness for that as it looked seriously ugly a couple of days back.

Rain later on Monday into Tuesday. Big split on totals with CMC and ACCESS showing some heavier falls, while GFs and EC are showing more like 2-10mm. Really do need a good inch as it’s getting crispy across the whole state. EC ensemble shows anything between 2 and 40mm for central areas so big range of possibilities :o

Monsoon about to fire up next week (probably). While throw a lot of moisture south through WA. Hopefully this delivers eventually....
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hillybilly
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Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:05 am

Nice foggy night here, but nothing in the gauge. That is four foggy mornings in a row for 0.2mm.

On track for a shocker of a month unless something unexpected happens. Looks like 2019 is determined to start HOT and dry and end HOT and dry. Good riddance to the year and hoping 2020 is more like 2010 here.... Hard to believe my social media was full of people complaining about our cold start to summer just two weeks back :roll: Am never one to wish for hot with our new climate :?

Warming up now, and will be low to mid 30s south on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and high 30 to low 40s north. Only Monday is a scorcher for the whole state. EC is bringing the front earlier and flatter, which is a trend across all the models. Means less hot, less windy and less rain.

Some chance for rain, but more a hope than an odds on. A weak trough with a bit of tropical moisture on Sunday with the odd shower and storm, then some showers near Monday’s change and overnight into Tuesday. Models split a bit with UK, ACCESS and CMC going for locally 10-20mm. GFS and EC basically keep it more like 2-5mm max :(

We could get something decent in about a week, if the low/cyclone, can hook up with a trough.
weathergasm
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Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:00 pm

Long story short is we need that monsoon to kick off just as much as Darwin does (if not more). The absence of that tropical moisture being advected down here is really being sorely missed this spring/summer.
Tassiedave
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Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:32 pm

Wow ACCESS-G shows some serious heat in Vic/Tas on the 4th and 5th January.
Dane
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Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:15 pm

Temperatures today were mild near the coast but soon got Hot as you moved inland.
Melbourne only reached 23.1c today but Ballarat peaked at 35.0c and I recorded 35.4c.
In the Mallee it was over 40c.
Not that often its 12c warmer in Ballarat than it is in Melbourne
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hillybilly
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Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:02 pm

Down at Walkerville where it was a beautiful 22C. Light winds then a strong sea breeze. Clearly the intense heat overland was really “sucking” the sea breeze in. 27C back at FC. Water is starting to warm up but still spring wetsuit weather ;)

Tomorrow looks similar, just a few degrees hotter and similar for Sunday. Could be the odd shower about the state, mainly north and east. Monday a stinker throughout.

Geez hope progs change for next weekend. Looks awful, with temps approaching 50C in northwest Vic. We used to crack 45C about once every 5-10 years in Vic. Now we seem destined to crack it every year, and sometimes multiple times. Our weather is fast becoming unrecognisable :(
snowfall
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Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:24 pm

30c here today and almost no wind. Not looking forward to the next few days, or potentially next weekend with another intense heatwave. We’ve only had 5mm MTD, and if we get nothing further, it will be the driest month of the year for us. Very different to last year where we had close to 100mm, but for that reason I am also hoping that the change in pattern compared to last year will mean the first few months of 2020 won’t be a repeat of 2019. The SSTs around Australia this summer are very different, with extra warm waters off NW Australia and not so warm in the Tasman, the exact opposite of summer 2019.
Gordon
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Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:03 pm

Dane wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:15 pm
Temperatures today were mild near the coast but soon got Hot as you moved inland.
Melbourne only reached 23.1c today but Ballarat peaked at 35.0c and I recorded 35.4c.
In the Mallee it was over 40c.
Not that often its 12c warmer in Ballarat than it is in Melbourne
That's amazing. We only got to 29C here just 25km or so down the road (though admittedly a bit higher in elevation.) Usually we're about 2-3C cooler than Ballarat; must've been a sea breeze boundary thing.
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hillybilly
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Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:47 am

Min of 23C for us in FC sat above the sea breeze inversion. Down in Walkerville it’s foggy and about 17C. Decent shot of mid level moisture today, but low levels are dry so just virga and perhaps the odd muddy spot of rain.

Monday slightly cooler on the latest runs. Still a scorcher, but at least not record breaking. Winds are up a bit, so won’t be a good day for fire danger :(

Rain for Tuesday splits between GFS and EC which have dribbles (typically 1-5mm) and UK, ACCESS, ICON and CMC which have more (locally 10-20mm). EC is usually the best, so not expecting much but hoping that we get a drink :?
stevco123
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Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:31 am

Somebody sack the work experience kids at the bureau. It's raining down here. Forecast said it's gonna be fine ;)
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
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Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:48 am

stevco123 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:31 am
Somebody sack the work experience kids at the bureau. It's raining down here. Forecast said it's gonna be fine ;)
Think the cutoff is 0.2mm. Was always gonna being virga today for us, anything that reaches the ground is a bonus ;) Better chance in the east late.

Lots of virga down here in Walkerville, and dirty smoke haze as fog has lifted.
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Didjman
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Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:32 am

Dane wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 8:15 pm
Temperatures today were mild near the coast but soon got Hot as you moved inland.
Melbourne only reached 23.1c today but Ballarat peaked at 35.0c and I recorded 35.4c.
In the Mallee it was over 40c.
Not that often its 12c warmer in Ballarat than it is in Melbourne
We have been consistently warmer here than Melbourne the last few days; top of 35c here yesterday at 328m.
Tassiedave
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Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:51 pm

Tas temps today: Fingal 35, Cressy 34.1, Scottsdale 31.8, Launceston 31.2, Wynyard 29.3, Hobart 27.5, St Helens 26.3.
A very rare 40 degrees is forecast for Hobart on Monday! Tas forecasts Monday: Hobart 40, Campania 40, Ouse 40, Huonville 39,Swansea 38, Fingal 36, Launceston 34, Devonport 26
Last edited by Tassiedave on Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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