Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by hillybilly » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:56 pm

Some impressive cells moving across Western Vic ATM (as picked by GFS :) ). Had a couple of lighter showers at home with about 0.2mm so far.

Cracking low developing tomorrow, so going to be a wild, wet and windy one. Not a lot of moisture on the northern side so rainfall will thin out as you go north.

Nasty fire day tomorrow in northern NSW and southern Queensland. Definitely not your normal early spring day up there :(

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Didjman » Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:32 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:56 pm
.... going to be a wild, wet and windy one.......
With the Sudden Stratospheric Warming over Antarctica still going strong - it will not be the last one!

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:38 pm

Great downpour over night, perfect weather, blue with green....
Loving the gardening..
planting with hope this year so far..

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Didjman » Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:01 pm

There is a line of sporadic sparks from the Grampians to Cape Otway

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by snowfall » Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:03 pm

Very mild this week here - we’ve averaged 17c for the maximum temp over the past 5 days. Looks like an interesting setup from tonight onwards for the next few days. Models aren’t giving much rain here unfortunately. Possibly too far north, or rainshadowed, to benefit a whole lot, but we’ll see how it goes. Does look good for the southeast though. Had one shower earlier today but not quite enough to register in the gauge.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Adam38 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:13 pm

Cracking few days here, no wind and warm!! My native garden is going berserk with everything flowering profusely.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:02 pm

Severe weather warnings for Tasmania
from the BOM
"HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible across parts of northern and eastern Tasmania during Friday.
Throughout the NORTHWEST and CENTRAL NORTH of Tasmania, heavy rain is possible from early Friday and is expected to ease later that afternoon. Rainfall totals of 20 to 40 mm are possible during this time, however heavier rainfall that may lead to flash flooding is possible in thunderstorms.
Throughout EASTERN Tasmania, heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected to develop from late Friday morning and be widespread across the area, with rainfall totals of 40 to 80 mm during the day. Totals in excess of 100 mm are possible across elevated terrain. Rain is expected to ease during Saturday.
DAMAGING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of around 80 to 90 km/h are possible along the entire eastern coastal strip of Tasmania from Swan Island to Tasman Island. The strong winds are expected to develop Friday afternoon, tend southeasterly early Saturday and ease later Saturday.
Locations which may be affected include Devonport, Burnie, Launceston, St Helens, Swansea and Orford."

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Jake Smethurst » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:10 pm

Severe weather warning also issued for Victoria, mainly for winds. The earlier thunderstorm warning for Cape Otway area is cancelled.
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of Central, Mallee, South West, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:35 pm Thursday, 5 September 2019.
Strong winds developing on Friday

Weather Situation: A strong cold front will reach southwestern Victoria Friday afternoon, crossing the State during the day. An associated low pressure system will deepen over Bass Strait maintaining strong southwesterly winds to eastern parts into Saturday.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are possible in northwestern Victoria early FRIDAY afternoon, easing in the late afternoon or evening. Significant areas of raised dust are likely with strong winds.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are also expected to develop about western coastal parts and elevated areas in the southwest district (above 500m) from mid afternoon FRIDAY, extending to Central and West Gippsland coastal parts FRIDAY evening.
Winds are expected to ease from the west overnight on FRIDAY, although damaging winds are likely to develop about elevated parts in eastern parts of the State and the East Gippsland coast. Winds are likely to remain strong in eastern parts until SATURDAY evening.
Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Ouyen, Walpeup, Warrnambool, Portland and Wonthaggi.
Some showers and local thunderstorms also developing across parts of the state currently. Had a heavy shower just now in Cheltenham. Windy and showery period coming up!
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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:28 am

Radar filled in nicely,
Steady rain now, under a yellow patch..
keep this weather pattern coming plz...

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by hillybilly » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:37 am

Woken by heavy rain here, though looks pretty short lived. 8mm in the gauge which is almost exactly what EC had for us last night :D MTD up to 30mm, so tracking ok.

The low to our southwest is now weakening and the new one will develop near Flinders Island. We are inbetween these systems and as the day goes on winds will slowly shift more southerly. It looks like a very unstable arvo with showers and local storms. Uppers are cold enough for small hail. Then more showery swly conditions come in for overnight and the rest of the weekend. It looks like a healthy system for southern and mountain areas, particularly in the usual wet spots. EC has about 50mm here all up which will be very welcome ;)

Potential lower level snow showing up now for Monday. Not overly cold, but 850Ts drop to about -4C and the snowline to the 600-800m range. Starts to put the higher subalpine into play :D Would think Macedon and Trentham a chance. A bit mild for here, but hopefully that changes ;)

Btw can really see the IOD in this event. Dewpoints to the north of gobsmacking. A totally desiccated airmass. You can then see it down here with the feeble rainband in the northerly. Much of NSW and Queensland will see a substantial dust storm today :o We are lucky that airmass didn’t dive south into Vic as it would have ripped away moisture in a hurry.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Adam38 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:54 am

Incredibly dry in inland NSW... a few sites over 30c already this morning with minus -12c dew points 😮

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Rivergirl » Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:23 am

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS


For people in East Gippsland, West and South Gippsland and parts of Central, Mallee, South West, North East and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:37 am Friday, 6 September 2019.
Strong winds this afternoon and Saturday

Weather Situation: A strong cold front will reach southwestern Victoria by the afternoon before crossing the remainder of the State during the afternoon and early evening. An associated low pressure system will deepen over Bass Strait tonight.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are possible in northwestern Victoria early FRIDAY afternoon, easing in the late afternoon or evening. Significant areas of raised dust are likely with strong winds.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are also expected to develop about western coastal parts and elevated areas in the southwest district (above 500 metres) from mid afternoon FRIDAY, before extending to Central and West Gippsland coastal parts FRIDAY evening.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 80 km/h with peak gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop over Alpine areas (above 1200 metres) and through remaining parts of Gippsland SATURDAY morning. Wind gusts could reach 120 km/h along the far east of the East Gippsland coast.
Blizzard conditions are possible about the Alps from FRIDAY evening onward.
Winds are expected to ease throughout in the west during tonight, but winds are likely to remain strong in eastern parts until SATURDAY evening.
Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Warrnambool, Traralgon, Moe, Bairnsdale and Orbost.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Friday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Rivergirl » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:07 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria
Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments

Initial Flood Watch for Upper Yarra, Bunyip, Latrobe, Thomson and South Gippsland Catchments
Issued at 12:01 pm EST on Friday 6 September 2019

Flood Watch Number: 1

Areas of isolated minor flooding may develop across the Upper Yarra, Bunyip, Latrobe, Thomson and South Gippsland catchments from Saturday.

A strong cold front and low-pressure system is passing across Victoria during Friday and the low will move east on Saturday.

Catchments in the flood watch area are wet following recent rainfall.

Daily rainfall totals of 10 to 20mm are forecast for West and South Gippsland and the East Central districts from Friday through to Monday. Localised heavier falls are expected overnight Friday into Saturday. Snow level will fall to around 900m during Friday and as low as 800m on Sunday.

With forecast rainfall, river rises are expected late Friday and minor flooding may develop across the flood watch area from Saturday.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Thomson River
Latrobe River
Traralgon Creek
South Gippsland Rivers
Bunyip River and Dandenong Creek
Yarra River to Coldstream
Yarra River downstream of Coldstream

The Bureau of Meteorology is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue catchment specific warnings as required.

See www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings to view the current warnings for Victoria.

For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floo ... ices.shtml

Flood Safety Advice:
Note: This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

SES advises that all community members should:

Never walk, ride or drive through floodwater, Never allow children to play in floodwater, Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains during and after heavy rain, Keep well clear of fallen power lines Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks, and heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.

Current Emergency Information is available at http://emergency.vic.gov.au For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

Current Road and Traffic Information is available at the VicRoads website:

http://traffic.vicroads.vic.gov.au/

Weather Forecast:

For the latest weather forecast see http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/

River Height and Rainfall information are available on the Bureau of Meteorology web site at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/

Flood Warnings and Flood Watches for Victorian Catchments are also available on: Telephone Weather Service No. 1300 659217.

Next Issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 12:00 pm EST on Saturday 07 September 2019.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Dane » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:15 pm

Not getting much action from the current system here in Ballarat.
Had 1.5mm's overnight and just a couple of light sprinkles today winds are light.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Gordon » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:29 pm

Yes same here, just a few mm so far - but happy to see the easterners getting their share, given we've had over half a metre of rain since May :).

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:57 pm

Cold one here today. 6mm for the event thus far.

Shocking dust storms in Western NSW atm.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:59 pm

Well it happened here,
But I was mid painful massage face down
Good 15 minutes of flogging rain (I think)
More to come. Black as a dogs belly.
Around 2.45 I think.
What’s the link to look at past radar ?

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by occluded » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:02 pm

Dark skies and some small hail here. 5.8mm overnight and another 3.8mm today so far (nearest AWS).
Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:59 pm
What’s the link to look at past radar ?
I usually use this one https://theweatherchaser.com/radar/IDR023-melbourne

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Didjman » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:25 pm

5.2mm only here so far, but some impressive skyscapes!

Image

Image

Image

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:53 pm

Thanks..
Local WS saying 11 another 14mm
Have to wait for HB's report.

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