Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

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hillybilly
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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by hillybilly » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:04 pm

Looking through my photos spotted this one to start today. That is the back of Walkerville looking towards Inverloch.

Didn’t quite get a matching photo this evening.

Image

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by hillybilly » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:12 am

Thick fog this morning here in the hills. 13mm in the gauge.

Not much today, but a late trough may drop a shower or two. Quite mild, with the far northwest headed for the mid 20s next two days.

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:36 pm

Just a couple of mm yesterday afternoon.

Later this week has grabbed my interest. Although it looks a bit messy on some forecast models (hello Access-G!), it has the potential to bring very useful rain to parts of Vic. We need every little bit with the current +ve IOD...

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by flyfisher » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:06 pm

We are so lucky to be getting the rain we have got given the IOD. The SAM has helped us heaps and moisture is being injected into the westerly stream over in the mid to west Indian ocean from the warm SST over there.

But to our north is dire and very dry. I keep looking at the currents to see if it will change. Probably not until monsoon winds reverse currents to the NW of Australia.

Nice heavy rain over night and everything here is wet and green. The longer this can last the better as summer seem to flash drought very quickly these days. More rain coming across from SA now and a nice looking cut off low after that.

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by hillybilly » Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:38 pm

Case of the disappearing rainband this arvo. Look at radar and looks good, look again and it has vanished :?:

Bit of an inbetween day tomorrow ahead of the main system. EC bombing a deep lower near Bass Strait for late in the week. Not much moisture infeed, so rain north of it will be feeble, but lots of showers behind it. The airmass to our north would be setting lots of early season records were it not for the astonishing August 2009 heatwave event. It will surge south but largely miss us. Not a good fire situation for northern NSW :(

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by hillybilly » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:57 am

Progs firming on a deep low forming in Bass Strait scenario now. Both EC and GFS deepen a low rapidly to the near southeast of Melbourne on Friday, likely to drop to 990hPa give or take. Gusty NW winds ahead of the developing low, and strong winds to gales on the western side. Potential for heavy falls in the Yarra Ranges and similar wet spots. EC has about 70mm here now for the sequence which would put us on target for our monthly average :D Also a decent wave and storm surge event, on the bays and Bass Strait.

Not a great tropical infeed so rain will thin as you go north. Still, looks like a decent event for much of northern Vic, which will be timely :D

Mild ahead of the low, with 20s widespread Tuesday and Wednesday. Warmest air stays north of Vic, with mid 30s edging into northern NSW :?

Tomorrow has my interest with a weak trough timed for mid arvo. It’s quite unstable so could get some heavy showers and maybe the odd spark :?:

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by Didjman » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:37 am

Friday night is looking absolutely FERAL! Taste of things to come??

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:46 pm

It's a warm one today. We might have our first 20c+ temp since May 18. Currently 19c.

But it looks the goods for a nice cold outbreak later in the week :D

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Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

Post by Gordon » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:30 pm

Beautiful day here. Looks like my pattern since May of indoor work on mild, sunny days and outdoor work when it's horrible, will continue...

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:54 pm

My car said 26. Fir a little bit
Then dropped to 22
Perfect weather.
Had decent moisture overnight. Must have rained.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:55 pm

A bit wet for the Magpies vs Cats at the MCG Friday evening?

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by hillybilly » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:07 am

Progs holding for a significant low. That said, rain totals looks less than you might expect given the Synoptics due to the lack of an infeed on Thursday into Friday. Peak falls for areas east of about Melbourne. Some potential for good falls through Gippsland which is currently suffering a record multiyear drought.

Today we get the first part of the system. Infeed from the north and a trough to the south. Rain tending to peak in northern Vic and southern Vic with a bit of a gap inbetween. Another mild to warm day.

North of the river going to be uncomfortably warm, dry and windy. Not looking good, with a spike in fire weather and raised dust.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by StratoBendigo » Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:41 pm

Quite an amazing thermal gradient to our North. Currently 14c here, 16c in Swan Hill, 25c in Mildura, and 30c in Broken Hill!

Progs looks rather chilly from Friday onwards. Probably looking at 15-20mm of rain in this neck of the woods.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by mick » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:20 pm

This just in from a mate in the US of A.
comment_3239062330.jpg
comment_3239062330.jpg (47.4 KiB) Viewed 501 times

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Didjman » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:27 pm

WoW Mick! Needs no words!

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by hillybilly » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:41 pm

Got a cracking shower here before with a peak rainfall rate of 80mm/hr. 6mm in quick time. Month tracking quite well, with MTD of 20mm now.

Looks like late showers tomorrow.

That heat up north is not good. Into the mid 30s or higher in SA. More than 10C above average and getting uncomfortably close to early season records in spots. Fires in northern NSW and southern Queensland.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Sean » Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:50 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:41 pm
Got a cracking shower here before with a peak rainfall rate of 80mm/hr. 6mm in quick time. Month tracking quite well, with MTD of 20mm now.

Looks like late showers tomorrow.

That heat up north is not good. Into the mid 30s or higher in SA. More than 10C above average and getting uncomfortably close to early season records in spots. Fires in northern NSW and southern Queensland.
Can only hope the there's no monsoon lag this year. 2 in a row would be a sick joke.

3mm from passing drizzle tonight. Enough to keep the topsoil damp.

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by 93ben » Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:52 am

It was a bit foggy this morning in Templestowe. Interesting day coming up.
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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by hillybilly » Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:43 am

Starting to look like we may see some decent convection this arvo through west and central areas. LI on the last GFS drop to -2 to -3. This model has a decent area of heavy showers and storms spreading east from early/mid arvo. First shower just popped up on the central ranges.

Still on track for a strong low tomorrow, though progs have edged it slightly further south.

To our north record or near record heat and a bad fire day today and tomorrow - particularly northern NSW and southern Qld :(

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Re: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019

Post by Tassiedave » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:47 pm

Severe weather warning issued for Tasmania. "Heavy Rain across Eastern and Northern Tasmania during Friday with damaging winds along the East Coast"

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