Victoria - Clipper system: August 24-25 2019

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hillybilly
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Victoria - Clipper system: August 24-25 2019

Post by hillybilly » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:01 am

One of those inbetween systems with a fast clipper coming up for Saturday. Comes through mid arvo, so will be enhanced by the diurnal cycle. EC keen on some heavy showers and possibly storms, particularly central through the northeast with local falls upwards of 25mm. Suspect one of those typical systems that gives a couple of mm on the plains west of Melbourne increasing to 30mm+ in the upper Yarra. Inbetween a big gradient. Little in the north again.

Not much cold air with the system. Before it temps likely to get near 20C and after it cools but freezing levels mean snow starts out above the peaks and only drops after most the precip has cleared.

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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:07 am

Not sure if we'll get much. We're too far North to get anything decent this weekend.

That said, we did manage 3mm overnight which was more than most forecast models were suggesting.

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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by Horts » Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:15 am

Ok, ready for a little bit of warmth now.

Just about had enough of winter for this year, time to thaw out.

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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by hillybilly » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:47 am

EC downgraded to more like 5-10mm, GFs upgrades. Still looks like mainly a southern Vic system, peaking east central. System for mid next week looking a bit more promising.

Going to be quite warm on Saturday. Near 20C in parts of the south and the Mallee into the mid 20s. EC has about 25C at Mildura.

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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:51 am

-2 degC this morning. Heavy frost.

Cool and dry mostly for the next week. Although it's interesting to note a build up of heat over inland WA in the next week too.

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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by Skywalker » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:44 am

Looks like the mowers will be out in force on Saturday with the slightly warmer conditions forecast. I've even bought myself a new one for the occasion. ;)
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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by snowfall » Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:05 pm

Cold one this morning. The temp dipped down to 0.2c. I assume there was frost about, but disappeared by the time I was outside. Looks like quite a mild day coming up tomorrow, although windy.

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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by hillybilly » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:14 am

Not a lot in today for most, but might surprise (or not). Beaut morning and spring like with temps near 20C on the flats. Sharp change mid to late arvo. Looks like peaking in the Yarra Ranges to South Gippsland. Thinking 5-10mm here. We need just less than 10mm to our monthly average, so hoping we sneak that :D North of the divide looks dry, and in NSW another spike in fire weather :o (wildfires in winter are not usual :( ).

Not a dissimilar system for Wednesday late, though that one looks cold. Snow levels dropping to about 500m on the latest EC, though not particularly wet.

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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by Wilko » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:11 pm

Squall marching up bay


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Re: Clipper system: August 24-25

Post by hillybilly » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:47 pm

Getting heavy rain and hail showers here now. Quite unstable just ahead of the front, though the area of instability is quite narrow. Significant squall racing across the burbs now. It pushed a decent storm surge up the bay with the tide this evening running nearly 30cm ahead of yesterday, though tides atm are not high so would not expect any damage to beaches.

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Re: Victoria - Clipper system: August 24-25 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:35 am

6mm from that system. Almost exactly what EC had (about 7mm). In the gradient between near zero in the city to more than 10mm in the upper Yarra. Been a remarkable week with some spots in East Central scoring nearly 100mm (Upper Lang Lang and Donna Buang) to near zero on the plains west of Melbourne.

Been just a tiny bit too westerly for us to do really well with about 30mm here. MTD is 130mm, so need 3mm more to our monthly average. Should get that on Wednesday :) The next system could pack a fair punch with some very cold air coming up from the south. This eventually forms an east coast low. It lacks a good tropical infeed so won’t be a huge rain producer (but may produce heavy falls near the east coast as it hits the Tasman). Still, first decent system for the inland east for a long time.

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Re: Victoria - Clipper system: August 24-25 2019

Post by snowfall » Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:12 pm

Just 1.3mm from the front last night. Got close to 16c yesterday, our warmest day since early June. Today maxed out at just under 10c, so quite a weekend of contrasts. Just a couple of light showers passing through now - won’t add to much though.

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Re: Victoria - Clipper system: August 24-25 2019

Post by Gordon » Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:32 pm

4mm here overnight and another bleak day yesterday - cold & windy, with cloud after midday.

Was in Melbourne today where it was delightful (by Gordon standards!)

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Re: Victoria - Clipper system: August 24-25 2019

Post by hillybilly » Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:50 pm

Max of just 7C here today. Funny that it was T-shirt weather outside in the garden with the sun and lack of wind. Few spits of rain, but nothing more in the gauge.

New thread time. Decent cold front late on Wednesday which forms a cut off in the Tasman Sea. Looks like a decent ECL, though lack of tropical infeed will mean rain inland isn’t that impressive. Heavy falls locally on the east coast probably spreading into East Gippsland. Tides are high this week so could cause issues if there is a deeper centre form near the coast which is pretty common in these setups.

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Re: Victoria - Clipper system: August 24-25 2019

Post by Adam38 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:45 pm

I was in Ballarat watching the football ( go Doggies ) and it was bloody freezing!!!

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