Vic - Strong Cold Front August 18 - 19

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hillybilly
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Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:22 am

EC now has snow for us on Monday morning. Precip is looking better - has a few mms with temps cold enough for snow. Is a bit too westerly for my liking, which sometimes sees the showers just slip south of us. Still, taken at face value could get a light settling here.

Is a solid cold airmass. The freezing level drops to about 700m and the snow levels to about 500m, perhaps a tad lower. Main concern is the precip.

Meanwhile, beaut day today, and a classic spring day tomorrow. Sunny early the wind and cloud thickening. It's quite unstable pre-frontal so could well see the odd rumble (it looks "better" in the northeast where GFS is pointing to a decent storm outbreak).
StratoBendigo
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Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:57 am

A cold -1 degC morning here today. But nice and sunny so at least a good day for drying clothes.

Doesn't look like much rain for us this week. Might eeck out 10mm of we're lucky.
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hillybilly
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:57 am

Cold air moving up on SA looks very impressive this morning. While the low has peaked, its going to throw up some seriously cold air for tomorrow with 850Ts dipping below -5C. Over us atm the 850Ts are north of 10C so more than 15C temperature gradient across this system.

Bit of a wild one today with gusty winds and a solid change mid arvo. It is moisture starved so not a great rain producer. The dewpoints edging into the Mallee are well into the negatives, a sign of the positive IOD :?: Not good for fire danger in drought affected NSW :( Looks like 2-20mm depending on where you are today with the usual wet spots doing ok, and the dry spots in line for wind :?

Week ahead is going to throw up much of the same. EC has rainfall in central districts ranging from about 2mm on the plains west of Melbourne to more than 50mm in the upper Yarra. Inbetween a strong gradient.

Tomorrow looks like putting snow levels down to below 500m, but rainfall is limiting. Thinking a light cover here, but a bit iffy as it depends on showers streaming from the WSW which can often slide just south of here, Thinking spots like Macdedon look better as they go cold enough for snow before today’s rain all pushes through.
Tassiedave
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:39 am

Melbourne is 17.8 degrees at 9.30 am - very warm for mid August
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:52 pm

:woooo: :woooo: :woooo: Happy Radar Dance.
Footy is over for another year...it was enjoyable in the sun today, compared to last weekend
Horts
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:40 pm

Hammering down here at the moment, radar looks good!
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:15 pm

Just getting some red with that yellow..
Started here.. got my wood undercover for a day or so,
Household member is still working in it..
I’m sure rain makes you achieve more as you work faster,..
Gordon
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:18 pm

6mm here from that lot, 81mm mtd and 9mm to go to our August average.

Looks like we've had our one sunny day ration for the week :(. Currently 6.5C and more snow forecast overnight. August maximums running about 2C below average. BOM's 'warm, dry winter' is going to have to hurry up - only 13 days to go :?
Hawker
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:22 pm

7mm here and still going
Was just wondering if the rain down there was as good as the radar, looks good
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Didjman
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:59 pm

Watching the footy at the G (on TV), and the radar, the radar seems to be over reading on / south of the divide?? Only 3.2mm here so far.
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hillybilly
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:20 pm

Geez a day of two halves. Mild sunny morning, cold, foggy and wet arvo :D Rain is falling thickly, but clearly a lot of bright banding on the radar. Had just on 3mm here so far.

GFS update still suggests showers here overnight into tomorrow with temps cold enough for snow. Fingers are crossed :D
Gordon wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:18 pm
BOM's 'warm, dry winter' is going to have to hurry up - only 13 days to go :?
June and July were both well above average for Vic (+0.6C and +1.4C) so we'll need around -2C to fall below average for winter. Not likely to happen - if it does the month will be our coldest August on record :D Of course, the forecasts are just about the "odds" so they don't mean it will be warmer or colder, just which way things are leaning. I'm pretty relieved that Vic has bucked the trend with decent rain the last couple of months, as the rest of OZ has been really warm and dry :?

EDIT> scored 6mm from that band. EC had 7mm so almost nailed it again :o

Looking through the obs some “impressive” numbers. 23.6C at Orbost - not a record, but certainly pretty spring like. In NSW 30.7C looks the best of it. With the dry air some big diurnal temperature ranges such a Marrangroo which went from -3.2 to 19.2C and Glen Innes from -1.7C to 21.0C.
Dane
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:45 pm

Had 4mm's from that rain band from 12.30pm to 2.30pm has been dry since.
BOM predicting snow down to 400m early tomorrow morning and the Ballarat forecast
has possible snow flurries in the early morning.
But like HB said not much moisture around then so would need to get lucky.
snowfall
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:49 pm

8.5mm here. Rain has stopped and it has brightened up a bit. Quite cool though, with 7c. MTD is now 66 mm, which is just slightly above average.
Gordon
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:04 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:20 pm
Of course, the forecasts are just about the "odds" so they don't mean it will be warmer or colder, just which way things are leaning. I'm pretty relieved that Vic has bucked the trend with decent rain the last couple of months, as the rest of OZ has been really warm and dry :?
Of course I agree that the decent rain has been good, but BOM can't have it both ways - issue forecasts and then say 'well it was just our best guess' when they constantly fail for certain areas - like ours. Unfortunately, major decisions are made based on these forecasts, so a bad forecast is actually much worse than no forecast. I'll post some examples in Climate.

Anyway, back on topic and my funny little weather app has snow starting here at 10pm. It was actually pretty good for the last event so might be something in it!
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hillybilly
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:34 pm

Snowing at Mt Lofty https://www.facebook.com/SouthAustralia ... DL9fgR3Jzw

How’s that for a URL!
Macedonian
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:02 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:20 pm
Geez a day of two halves. Mild sunny morning, cold, foggy and wet arvo :D Rain is falling thickly, but clearly a lot of bright banding on the radar. Had just on 3mm here so far.

GFS update still suggests showers here overnight into tomorrow with temps cold enough for snow. Fingers are crossed :D
Gordon wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:18 pm
BOM's 'warm, dry winter' is going to have to hurry up - only 13 days to go :?
June and July were both well above average for Vic (+0.6C and +1.4C) so we'll need around -2C to fall below average for winter. Not likely to happen - if it does the month will be our coldest August on record :D Of course, the forecasts are just about the "odds" so they don't mean it will be warmer or colder, just which way things are leaning. I'm pretty relieved that Vic has bucked the trend with decent rain the last couple of months, as the rest of OZ has been really warm and dry :?

EDIT> scored 6mm from that band. EC had 7mm so almost nailed it again :o

Looking through the obs some “impressive” numbers. 23.6C at Orbost - not a record, but certainly pretty spring like. In NSW 30.7C looks the best of it. With the dry air some big diurnal temperature ranges such a Marrangroo which went from -3.2 to 19.2C and Glen Innes from -1.7C to 21.0C.
Marangaroo, which is just on the outskirts of Lithgow in nsw had a 25C diurnal range a week or two ago. -8C to 17C. It is a murderously cold elevated frost hollow.
Adam38
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:00 pm

The wind is savage up here on the hill 😱

The nights have been mild here this winter. My new house is almost twice the size as my last but the gas usage has been lower this winter.
Macedonian
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Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:23 pm

Snowing here now. 1.3C
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hillybilly
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Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:55 am

Down to 1C but no precip. Cold enough for snow but the Stupid Otways shredding the showers which are coming in slightly too westerly. 8mm in the gauge from yesterday.

Looks like the odd shower today, but most showers clinging to the wetter coastal parts. Thinking a mm or two here.

Next front on Tuesday into Wednesday looks wetter with a proper southerly pushing through.
Macedonian
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Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:18 am

No snow :(
- 0.2C
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