It's starting to come together Here is how I see on the 6.30am water vapour pic.
I've made an executive decision, the cold core cyclone name 'if' it develops in Bass strait with be called Peter. As you would expect, its a very tricky set up. 2 existing upper lows, 3 to be newly formed surface lows (green circles). If cyclone Peter forms in Bass strait, he will most likely travel east and merge with other 2 lows under a 'fujiwhara effect' and cut off next east of Tassie on Friday evening. The mothership upper low will pulse towards Tassie at the same time, it's impact on SE OZ is still up for debate across the main models.
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JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:00 am
I've made an executive decision, the cold core cyclone name 'if' it develops in Bass strait with be called Peter.
JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:00 am
I've made an executive decision, the cold core cyclone name 'if' it develops in Bass strait with be called Peter.
Good name but not the circumstances
Yes, you have hunted it from the stratosphere to the surface so thought the name was appropriate
Usually I'd be frothing for a system like this, however I'm not sure how our side of the bay is going to take it.
There is barely any beach left at the northern end Safety Beach as is. It's as bare as I've seen. Pushing past the the beach boxes, eroding soil and fencing that's been there for years are literally collapsing into the bay. Bare exposed rock below and no sand.
Getting home from work Friday arvo could be quite the shock
I’m not looking forward to the wind either. Some more rain would be welcome though. Not a breath of wind here this morning - a calm before the storm perhaps.
Thanks for the analysis Jasmine and HB. Looks like a wild time ahead - will be fascinating to see how it plays out.
My friend the other day said it's possible to have snow as low as 100m! I guess we'll see if it happens. The ASWA Weather Conference is on this weekend so Melbourne is going to be filled with heaps of storm chasers from country Victoria and interstate. So there will probably be a lot more people on the roads chasing Peter.
So will I wake up to snow in East Warburton on Saturday morning, is there a chance at 230m high in the Upper Yarra Valley?
Or perhaps maybe it might reach McMahons Creek? At 300m
Maybe some of you might know.
It's gonna be interesting, 1st Winter living up this way.
Either way, if you head up Donna on the weekend, get there nice and early, so many people drive up there these days when it snows, it's probably 3x more busy on weekends compared to last year on weekends, it has really became a popular place.
BringOnTheCoolChange wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:20 pm
So will I wake up to snow in East Warburton on Saturday morning, is there a chance at 230m high in the Upper Yarra Valley?
Lived in Warby 79 to 89, possibly saw one snow flake only.
Seems as tho there is a good chance this event. Make sure you get photos.
Got snowed in as a teenager prior to 79 in Kyneton..
Locals have to get up the hill during the week, too many ppl on weekends.
BringOnTheCoolChange wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:20 pm
So will I wake up to snow in East Warburton on Saturday morning, is there a chance at 230m high in the Upper Yarra Valley?
Lived in Warby 79 to 89, possibly saw one snow flake only.
Seems as tho there is a good chance this event. Make sure you get photos.
Got snowed in as a teenager prior to 79 in Kyneton..
Locals have to get up the hill during the week, too many ppl on weekends.
Thanks for the info.
Ye true haha, the tourists need more places to go haha,
BringOnTheCoolChange wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:20 pm
So will I wake up to snow in East Warburton on Saturday morning, is there a chance at 230m high in the Upper Yarra Valley?
Or perhaps maybe it might reach McMahons Creek? At 300m
Maybe some of you might know.
It's gonna be interesting, 1st Winter living up this way.
Either way, if you head up Donna on the weekend, get there nice and early, so many people drive up there these days when it snows, it's probably 3x more busy on weekends compared to last year on weekends, it has really became a popular place.
Same at Mt Macedon, you never used to see anyone up here on weekends in winter these days it is busy all year 'round.
It's insanely busy if there is a chance of any snow. The cafe up at the top of the mount has a snow-cam and the bloody CFA promote snow relentlessly on social media.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
GFS 00Z doesn't let up. Mesoscale extratropical cyclone nearer to the Port Philip heads, 120 to 140 km/h at @850 hPa. It's tracks at a similar speed to the 27th December 1998 brut but is projected around 130km further north west nearer to Melbourne.
There are other places to find snow than the usual tourist spots. Just don’t tell anyone about them part of the issue now is social media and people tagging everywhere....the crowds then descend!
am trying to remember this now and keep some special spots secret!